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How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

economist.com

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Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#161

Post by bee_rider »

alephnerd wrote: post #130
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"the most resilient part of TX power grid" A roommate of mine once quipped on something: 'that's like saying my crap smells better than yours'. Feel free to correct me, I'm not an expert, but Texas runs its own state-only independent grid, it got completely pants in the ice storm a few years ago, and at the time a lot of articles said the Texas grid is fundamentally less resilient that other power companies. Is any o…

> However, Texas is loaded with sun/desert and I believe a ton of wind resources, so it has that going for it for next-generation industry. Surprisingly, you got to thank George Bush for that He made renewable wind and solar energy a major part of his energy policy when he was Govenor of TX. [0]. In 1999, he passed a law mandating Texas to get 2,000 megawatts of electricity from renewable energy by 2009. This helped…

I mean, you might be able to thank Bush for the investment, but I think we should not start thanking politicians for the sun and the wind, haha.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#162

Post by danpalmer »

frognumber wrote: post #67

My question: As an American, why should I work in IC fabrication? I'm competing with low-cost Asians who set a cap on my salary. Work conditions, income, and everything else is worse than SWE. I switched away from electronics early in my career, and it seems like a strict win. As much as I believe in on-shoring, I'm not sure those issues can, will, or should be fixed.

I don’t think the target job market here is six figure salaries for SWEs, I think it’s mid-high 5 figure salaries for skilled manufacturing employees.

More than Asia, but same order of magnitude, maybe even the same ballpark for some areas.

I expect most chip design will still be done in Asia and those are the high paying jobs.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#163

Post by adventured »

Well the CHIPS Act was $50 billion.

We've got another $50 billion. And another after that. And another after that. As necessary.

See: Ukraine v Russia.

$50 billion ain't what it used to be (and Russia is an economic joke in scale compared to the US, we can shovel billions of dollars into that war endlessly). Its just that the US and China have gotten so massive compared to their former peers, that we can fund at a relative gigantic level quite easily. The US economy is now 50% larger than the EU economy, and six times larger than Japan. US GDP per capita is a shocking $80,000 - well over double that of both the EU and Japan (soon to be double that of France and Britain; or closing in on France and Britain combined to put it another way). $80,000 is equal to the combined GDP per capita of France + Japan.

Things that are difficult for the EU to fund, like $50 billion for chips, are now comparatively easy for the US (or China) to fund. We're only funding the CHIPS Act because that sum is no longer a huge deal to the US. That's a little toy program that Biden was allowed to play with precisely because it's not that big of a deal financially. A medium deal would be $200-$300 billion (eg helping Ukraine defeat Russia across several years); a big deal is $500b-$1 trillion (infrastructure level).

Germany's economy hasn't grown on an inflation adjusted basis in decades. The same is largely true of all of Europe's biggest economies.

US GDP in 2008: $14.7 trillion. Now: $26.8 trillion.

Germany GDP in 2008: $3.7 trillion. Now: $4.3 trillion. And that is a mirror of what has been going on in Europe broadly (with a few exceptions eg the Baltics and Ireland). Since 2008 the US has added economy equal to Germany + France + Britain + Italy.

$50 billion would have been a big deal for the US, two decades ago.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#164

Post by strictnein »

photochemsyn wrote: post #25

America's basic socioeconomic structual model is highly flawed and any company wanting to do manufacturing here will see obvious disadvantages compared to Europe or Asia. 1) Employers are responsible for employee health coverage, inflating employee costs by a significant degree. The rationale for this model among the investor class is that it makes employees dependent on their employer and limits the power of unions,…

BMW would seem to be in a good position to judge the manufacturing capabilities of both Europe and the US, with their large presence in both.

$1.7 billion expansion in the US towards the end of 2022:

https://www.bmwgroup-werke.com/spartanburg/en/news/2022/BMW-...

Expanding on their already expansive presence in Spartanburg. The X3-X7 and their newest high end vehicle the XM are all built in the US:

https://www.bmwgroup-werke.com/spartanburg/en.html

Mercedes, another company that knows about manufacturing in Europe and the US, is producing some of their newest vehicles in the US, including new electronic vehicles that debuted in 2022, the EQE and EQS. The 2024 Maybach EQS680, with an estimated price of $200k, is also built in the US.

Toyota is spending $2.5 billion to expand their US facilities:

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-announces-2-5-billion-ex...

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#165

Post by asow92 »

bee_rider wrote: post #159
asow92 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You talk as if they're smart enough to learn something new. They're either smart or they're not. Which one is it?

They are “smart enough” to have learned the previous generation of tools while in school or in the early parts of their careers (where expectations are lower), and not “smart enough” to learn the next generation of tools while also doing their full time jobs. So, ok, but anyone thinking about entering the field can see that they’ll be left in a lurch when they hit mid career. We’ve already run this experiment for a g…

Up above we see "Then you start learning the Starbucks menu". Does that seem like an honest take here? Surely folks "dancing around the fundamental constraints of reality" aren't about to start whipping up frappuccinos because they failed to keep up with industry trends and plan ahead, right?

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#166

Post by LudwigNagasena »

nebalee wrote: post #157
LudwigNagasena wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a law in many countries that you have to carry your ID with you, eg Germany. The police may do random check in high risk areas. Do you think Germany treats its citizens without dignity?

You have to own an ID document (Pass or Personalausweis) in Germany, but you don't have to carry it with you.

Maybe I misinterpret it, but the law says “[Germans] must present their identity card at the request of an authority entitled to check identification.” I guess they won’t mind if it’s at your home a casual drive away, but if you live in another city?

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#167

Post by slingnow »

frognumber wrote: post #67

My question: As an American, why should I work in IC fabrication? I'm competing with low-cost Asians who set a cap on my salary. Work conditions, income, and everything else is worse than SWE. I switched away from electronics early in my career, and it seems like a strict win. As much as I believe in on-shoring, I'm not sure those issues can, will, or should be fixed.

You're right. Why should any American ever work in any job that doesn't favorably compare to SWE salary and working conditions? Everyone should quit their jobs and become a SWE. It's just that simple, right?

/s

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#168

Post by walleeee »

robertlagrant wrote: post #138
qbasic_forever wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because for this work it's cheaper for the company to hire a new person with a lower starting wage vs. keep employing and paying higher wages to more experienced workers. It's not the worker's fault they can't learn the new tool (they absolutely can learn it). It's capitalism's fault for valuing workers only for the cost of their labor and nothing else.

> It's capitalism's fault for valuing workers only for the cost of their labor and nothing else. Sigh. The value you're talking about here is the cost of their labour. This is like a business owner saying that employees should value their jobs differently to their salary. You're right in the sense that capitalism is fundamentally "people make agreements and decisions within what's available to them" but what's the ac…

> what's the actual issue you want capitalism to solve

Seeing as it's more or less the de facto world order it should ideally solve global alignment for the long term wellbeing of Earth-borne life

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#170

Post by vel0city »

alephnerd wrote: post #98
vel0city wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are loads of jobs related to the fabs surrounding them though. Lots of companies designing the things these fabs will end up actually producing, lots of testing the things these fabs produce, lots of integrating these things the fabs produce. The technology services supporting those companies making the designs. Etc.

Those jobs don't pay well either. You'll see salaries of around $70-110k in very expensive metros like the Bay, Portland, Dallas, Austin, etc. Salaries just haven't kept up in the EE space.

I'll tell that to all my friends in the EE space who live very comfortably that they're clearly not paid well.

They'll probably have a laugh while they're out boating.

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