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Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

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Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why can't ASML scale? They are siting on $20B of orders. That is insane. What is ASML's delivery throughput of these machines?

They make about 50 a year. One of the parts in these machines is a 30cm mirror that is the flattest that humans can make with our current level of technology. If you have a way to churn them out please let Zeiss SMT know.

Do whatever they are doing now, but twice?

What in the process wouldn’t work with this method?

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#162
post #148
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of people will likely blame APIs etc, but that’s just an easy scapegoat for people outside the game dev industry. The reality is likely just market share, hardware and the makeup of that market share. Macs used to actually be a big gaming platform once upon a time. Myst was a Mac exclusive (built with HyperCard) and Bungie used to make games for macs first before getting bought by Microsoft. But windows got the…

You can't ignore API reasons though. Before Metal, macOS used to ship with old OpenGL versions. I remember around the Tiger days (10.4) OpenGL was 4-5 years old compared to the version shipped in Windows. And with DirectX, Windows had a better API about two decades before Metal for macOS was released. I do agree with your other points. Macs are expensive so they are always going to be a niche market. And in most coun…

I just don’t think API matters if the capabilities are there. Look at Linux gaming, OpenGL was up to date and prevalent, but the majority of games are actually translating DirectX to Vulkan and using WINE.

Most games are using off the shelf engines that support Metal anyway, so I think api would only matter for the small subset of games using custom engines.

Regarding your point of the US, I should clarify that I didn’t mean by market share, though I suppose that’s also true in the US. I meant by profit.

According to the WSJ , Apple makes more from gaming than Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft and Activision combined worldwide.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody really benefits when the leading process node is being wasted by a walled garden company on, mostly, consumer laptops

There's a very common mindset that you only "benefit" if you have the latest, best "thing." There are so many ways to benefit. I've never owned an Apple product in my life! And yet, I own an AMD CPU that was built on a TSMC process. I feel like that benefits me. Would that TSMC process be as good if they didn't have Apple as a customer? Maybe not. I don't know for sure - it's not something I obsess over. It would be…

I don't necessarily disagree with you, I think you're much more right than wrong, but there is a loser in it. anecdotal observation from talking to coworkers, I know several people who have switched to macs for the apple silicon because of their speed/power efficiency. That's obviously not just 3nm at play, but yes there are definite losers in this race. Also if one takes the approach that an apple user pulled in to their walled garden is a net bad for the industry at large, it's not just a short term problem but also long term as well.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#164

Tim Cook must sweat bullets every time he reads a headline about China potentially invading Taiwan.

Tim Cook has shown a pretty serious willingness to work with the CCP in the past, and their human rights track record right now is pretty bad. What makes you think either he wouldn't do so after an invasion or that China would do anything to disrupt one of the biggest prices and competitive advantages in the world (TSMC)?

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#165
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the M3 doesn’t have some AI capacities that are at least somewhat utilized by something (probably bad Siri) I’ll be highly surprised.

Everyone, please let me have "Bad Siri" for the name of my next band.

I was watching a YouTube video and the guy said something like "but hey, seriously" and the audio on the computer muted and Siri appeared wondering what was going on.

So your first hit single should be about how important grass cultivation is to modern meat production: "Hay, seriously."

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China invades Taiwan?

Is this legitimately the only realistic option?

Why would this affect Apple? I would think China would not want to destroy TSMC, quite the opposite they'd love to have it. They would also want to get Taiwan humming economically again as fast as possible.

Apple has been plenty happy to work with the CCP in the past, so I don't understand how/why this would bankrupt Apple or really even cause them lots of problems.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any evidence whatsoever that TSMC would struggle financially without Apple? Sounds like FUD to me.

I don't think they will be struggling, just that Apple is willing to pop up cash, or have clear commitment in advance. Businesses prefer clear and stable outlook.

So, "no".

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#168
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a nice thought, but the reality is statements like this are just “I want google to have the power” and that’s not better

Or in the case of desktop/laptop computers, "I want Microsoft to have the power". If Apple suddenly vanished, realistically speaking most of its desktop marketshare would fall directly into Microsoft's lap as those users switched to Windows. The only exception would be devs using Linux instead, which at best represents a single digit percentage of computer users. So in this scenario you end up with Windows being cata…

But ... Apple isn't going to suddenly vanish. It would be a slow fade, and there's plenty of room for different things to happen. All those Mac users aren't going to be in a hurry to run to Windows. It's certainly possible Microsoft could build something attractive to them, but I think it's also quite possible that someone else could too.

But that said, even if MS did get all the market, when the concern is Apple's closed and walled-garden approach, wouldn't an MS world be better? I am certainly no fan of Windows, but it does seem much more compatible, and usable in broader ecosystems than Macs do.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#169
post #162
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't ignore API reasons though. Before Metal, macOS used to ship with old OpenGL versions. I remember around the Tiger days (10.4) OpenGL was 4-5 years old compared to the version shipped in Windows. And with DirectX, Windows had a better API about two decades before Metal for macOS was released. I do agree with your other points. Macs are expensive so they are always going to be a niche market. And in most coun…

I just don’t think API matters if the capabilities are there. Look at Linux gaming, OpenGL was up to date and prevalent, but the majority of games are actually translating DirectX to Vulkan and using WINE. Most games are using off the shelf engines that support Metal anyway, so I think api would only matter for the small subset of games using custom engines. Regarding your point of the US, I should clarify that I did…

>Look at Linux gaming

Linux is just non existent from a mainstream audience perspective, let alone the gaming market.

>Most games are using off the shelf engines that support Metal anyway, so I think api would only matter for the small subset of games using custom engines.

Today yes, it's easy to make a Mac game wit UE or Unity. But back 15-20 years ago?

BTW I'm not arguing API is the main reason Mac failed as a gaming platform. Just that it cannot be ignored.

>According to the WSJ , Apple makes more from gaming than Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft and Activision combined worldwide.

Don't me wrong, Apple is huge, but that's incorrect. Sony still makes more money than Apple.

https://www.gizmochina.com/2022/06/01/apple-rank-3rd-gaming-...

Maybe the figure you're thinking about is that iOS enabled the most consumer spending? (not the actual money Apple mades from gaming)

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They make about 50 a year. One of the parts in these machines is a 30cm mirror that is the flattest that humans can make with our current level of technology. If you have a way to churn them out please let Zeiss SMT know.

Do whatever they are doing now, but twice? What in the process wouldn’t work with this method?

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