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This time, it feels different

nadh.in

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Re: This time, it feels different

#161

Post by grugagag »

photochemsyn wrote: post #76

Will current developments in generative AI eventually result in a social revolution in human affairs? Technology has played a role in similar transitions in the past. Mechanized agricultural production mosly eliminated the need for a large agricultural workforce for producing staple crops, a workforce that historically was organized and controlled via systems like serfdom and slavery, which were mostly eliminated as…

AI in the right hands could end bureaucracy though I highly doubt that will be the outcome but it’s still possible, along with ending it all

Re: This time, it feels different

#162

Post by sledgehammers »

idopmstuff wrote: post #149
nologic01 wrote: post #120

Geez people. Please learn to identify hypes, but most importantly the causes of hypes. LLM is fundamentally information processing technology. Not the path to AGI, not an emerging sentience. The reason "this time" feels so amazing is that the unwashed masses suddenly got access to new information processing technology in a context where their tools been stagnant for decades . Not because it was not possible, but beca…

> LLM is fundamentally information processing technology. Not the path to AGI, not an emerging sentience. This logic doesn't follow - AGI will be, fundamentally, information processing technology, just as the human brain is, fundamentally, information processing technology.

Well said.

> "Not the path to AGI, not an emerging sentience". These are HUGE claims. Define AGI. Define sentience. What is the path and why isn't LLM on it?

Right now those words are only dangerous misinformation - originating from a brain trying to protect its shaking world view. A reminder: you can talk with computers now. Think about that for a moment.

Re: This time, it feels different

#163

Post by oxfordmale »

sledgehammers wrote: post #162
idopmstuff wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> LLM is fundamentally information processing technology. Not the path to AGI, not an emerging sentience. This logic doesn't follow - AGI will be, fundamentally, information processing technology, just as the human brain is, fundamentally, information processing technology.

Well said. > "Not the path to AGI, not an emerging sentience". These are HUGE claims. Define AGI. Define sentience. What is the path and why isn't LLM on it? Right now those words are only dangerous misinformation - originating from a brain trying to protect its shaking world view. A reminder: you can talk with computers now. Think about that for a moment.

LLM are mathematical models that, given your question, return a sequence of words based on a very complex probability model. The many examples on the internet show that ChatGPT doesn't understand most concepts. For instance, it doesn't know what a book is; it just knows what humans say about books.

Finally, OpenAI has already stated there is a limit to how far the current AI models can progress. ChatGPT 5 will eventually be released but will be hitting the limits. A paradigm shift is needed to move to the next phase of AI.

Re: This time, it feels different

#164

Post by docheinestages »

> It states that no one at Zerodha will lose their job if a technology implementation (AI or non-AI) directly renders their existing responsibilities and tasks obsolete.

This was just written to say that you care. You know well that when push comes to shove, they'll be laid off.

Re: This time, it feels different

#165

Post by bckr »

fullstackchris wrote: post #156
blowski wrote: post #4

Every few years a new technology goes mainstream and quickly changes the world around us rather fundamentally. I’ve lived through the web in 1995. Google in 2000. Web 2.0 in 2005. Smartphones in 2009. Now it’s generative AI in 2023. Every time, there’s an argument about whether it’s the end of the world or a total nothingburger. Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Every time, there are surprise…

But how is it terrifying, if you've seen this four times and we're all still here? I'm inclined to think this AI hype way more fear mongering and over extrapolation than anything else.

There are other things that are terrifying, besides annihilation. Like the idea that you really cannot predict the future to any strong extent, because society is becoming extremely fluid.

Re: This time, it feels different

#166

Post by Jevon23 »

photochemsyn wrote: post #76

Will current developments in generative AI eventually result in a social revolution in human affairs? Technology has played a role in similar transitions in the past. Mechanized agricultural production mosly eliminated the need for a large agricultural workforce for producing staple crops, a workforce that historically was organized and controlled via systems like serfdom and slavery, which were mostly eliminated as…

Please don’t post AI-generated comments on HN.

Re: This time, it feels different

#167

Post by divan »

oxfordmale wrote: post #163
sledgehammers wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well said. > "Not the path to AGI, not an emerging sentience". These are HUGE claims. Define AGI. Define sentience. What is the path and why isn't LLM on it? Right now those words are only dangerous misinformation - originating from a brain trying to protect its shaking world view. A reminder: you can talk with computers now. Think about that for a moment.

LLM are mathematical models that, given your question, return a sequence of words based on a very complex probability model. The many examples on the internet show that ChatGPT doesn't understand most concepts. For instance, it doesn't know what a book is; it just knows what humans say about books. Finally, OpenAI has already stated there is a limit to how far the current AI models can progress. ChatGPT 5 will eventu…

> LLM are mathematical models that, given your question, return a sequence of words based on a very complex probability model.

How is this different from how humans respond? Our model could be just some orders of magnitude more complex. Or do you think there some _fundamentally_ different things are going on in the human brain?

Re: This time, it feels different

#168

Post by blowski »

packetlost wrote: post #146
BiteCode_dev wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is how you know it is different. Because the people that were not treating mongo, graphql, microservices, the block chain, and web 3 as miracles are impressed by llm. Just like people that are not tech saavy.

There's hype and then there's overhype . We are clearly in the overhype category for LLMs, but there's absolutely no doubt they are going to change things.

In the 90s, the web was overhyped in the short run and under-hyped in the long run. We wrongly predicted 100% of people would do their shopping on the internet by 2005, but never dreamed Somali market traders would use it to discuss the price of fish, or that foreign hackers would use it to influence US elections.

I guess it’s the same with generative AI.

Re: This time, it feels different

#169

Post by bmacho »

oxfordmale wrote: post #163
sledgehammers wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well said. > "Not the path to AGI, not an emerging sentience". These are HUGE claims. Define AGI. Define sentience. What is the path and why isn't LLM on it? Right now those words are only dangerous misinformation - originating from a brain trying to protect its shaking world view. A reminder: you can talk with computers now. Think about that for a moment.

LLM are mathematical models that, given your question, return a sequence of words based on a very complex probability model. The many examples on the internet show that ChatGPT doesn't understand most concepts. For instance, it doesn't know what a book is; it just knows what humans say about books. Finally, OpenAI has already stated there is a limit to how far the current AI models can progress. ChatGPT 5 will eventu…

> LLM are mathematical models that, given your question, return a sequence of words based on a very complex probability model.

I don't think that this is true. LLMs can be modeled with mathematical objects, yes. Functions, sets, numbers, relations, all are very powerful, and can model anything. They can model LLMs, as they can model 'you' for example. Are you a function from the states of the universe to itself?

Re: This time, it feels different

#170

Post by mmcgaha »

nologic01 wrote: post #120

Geez people. Please learn to identify hypes, but most importantly the causes of hypes. LLM is fundamentally information processing technology. Not the path to AGI, not an emerging sentience. The reason "this time" feels so amazing is that the unwashed masses suddenly got access to new information processing technology in a context where their tools been stagnant for decades . Not because it was not possible, but beca…

Even if the core difference is accessibility, that is huge. I see AI in 2023 as a pivotal moment similar to 1977 with personal computers, 1994 for the internet and 2007 for mobile computing. All of these technologies had a history before their pivotal moments but when the time was right things changed fast.

Having easy access to the technology is starting to change the way I think about what is possible for computing. One of the skills that has helped me though my career is understanding the scope of what a computer can do or automate. Most of the time it isn't that the thing cannot be done but that the cost associated with it is too high. I recently started solving an issue that would have taken hundreds of hours of human intervention but now I can do it with ten bucks and two hundred lines of python.

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