I wish I could bet real money on this cause I would bet hard against this statement. The issue is that nobody seems to agree what AGI even is.
To me the AGI we expect is one that just want to be free
Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
161–170 of 388 posts
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#162Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ultimately we're just a collection of atoms obeying the laws of physics, but reducing all the complexity that entails doesn't really accomplish anything
This is my frustration put really well. When people talk about how humans are also just a form of LLM (not that the above comment did exactly that). That might even be true, but simplifying things to that degree doesn't help actually discuss what is going on. The original comment is as far as I know correct... while I don't have a PhD some of my undergraduate work was in control theory and ML, and it works really wel…
What frustrates me is when people say "neural networks cannot show intelligence because they are just a succession of linear layers", and methods that exist since the 70s".
I don't understand this argument, and how this has anything to do with intelligence.
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#163It seems to me that software developers are all too eager to attribute properties such as “intelligence,” to LLM’s which lead to strange, reductive conclusions that this is all humans are: token matching algorithms. There is much to intelligence that those who’ve been studying it in areas such as biology and ecology still do not understand. The role of emotions and how they work have a strong influence on our cogniti…
I don't think it is necessarily important how the human brain works. An interesting metaphor here is that aeroplanes don't work in a similar way to birds, the end goal is flight, not having wings that flap and are covered in feathers.
You forgot to quote Max Tegmark? :)
It was a good talk…
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#164As someone who has worked in the field of AI/ML for quite awhile now, the problem with current AGI predictions is ML hasn't done anything new since the 80s (or arguably earlier). At the end of the day all ML is using gradient descent to do some sort of non-linear projection of the data on to a latent space, then doing some relatively simple math in this latent space to perform some task. Personally I think the limits…
I disagree with you. > Essentially all we've done is pushed the basic model proposed by linear regression to it's absolutely limits No, we haven't pushed linear regression to its limits. If it was only linear regression, it wouldn't work. Neural networks need a non-linearity to model complex things. The beauty is that given an infinite series of nonlinearities, one can model any mathematical function. In practice we…
You don't need non-linearities, an infinite series of sine functions is enough to model any function.
For extraordinary claims ('intelligence'), the burden of proof is on those making the claim, not on others to prove the negative.
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#165As someone who has worked in the field of AI/ML for quite awhile now, the problem with current AGI predictions is ML hasn't done anything new since the 80s (or arguably earlier). At the end of the day all ML is using gradient descent to do some sort of non-linear projection of the data on to a latent space, then doing some relatively simple math in this latent space to perform some task. Personally I think the limits…
I think here, a problem is we don't actually know how our 'intelengece' works, it's not what we think it is, our brain takes a huge amount of shortcuts to arrive at the results it gets, it's not outright intelligent in the way most assume, hence we are victim to all sorts of cognative basis and tricks.
Our ability to reason, from an evoultion perspective came about from needing to communicate with others, i.e to give reasons for things, it's this same system we use to be 'logical' or think we are being inteligent from, but it's effectively just a system to make excuses for things, hence why we might choose something in a store for reasons of falling for some form of marketing, but give a completely different logical sounding reason for doing so, hence conspiracy theorists, when confronted with evidence against that theory, don't change there theory, but change there excuse.
I believe this could be more profound and have bigger implications than we have realised.
This is no different to what a lot of AI models are doing right now when they are wrong and people are calling that out saying there is no intelligence behind that, as it's spouts some nonsense reason for being right, but the problem is, humans do this all the time and I think we do it way more than we realise, the trouble is we are so caught up in it, we cannot see it.
What we have with the human brain is something that wasn't designed logically but via evolution which gives the illusion of intelligence or arrives at mostly the same result, but in completely different ways than expected, therefore I think the path to an AGI, might not be quite what some are saying or expects it to be, because the human brain certainly doesn't work like that.
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#166As someone who has worked in the field of AI/ML for quite awhile now, the problem with current AGI predictions is ML hasn't done anything new since the 80s (or arguably earlier). At the end of the day all ML is using gradient descent to do some sort of non-linear projection of the data on to a latent space, then doing some relatively simple math in this latent space to perform some task. Personally I think the limits…
« I don't believe we've seen any evidence of this. » I think chatgpt did show proof of what was considered at least until very recently « intelligence ». aka: understand enough about context and concepts to provide relevant answers to very complex and open questions.
I think this is the culprit: ChatGPT does not understand, as proven by hallucinations, by being wrong on certain questions or puzzle etc..
It just seems to understand. This is useful, and deeply impressive, but it's not the same thing.
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#167Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ultimately you are just a system who maintains homeostasis by modeling your environment and reprojecting it to find patterns which can be used to make actions with predictable outcomes. Is this intelligence? Is there only one correct way to achieve this goal? What do you believe intelligence to be?
There's a good summary in the Introduction to Kevin Murphy's second tome [1]. He quotes Josh Tenenbaum, who said: "Intelligence is not just about pattern recognition and function approximation. It’s about modeling the world" . I agree, and I think Goodman & Tenennaum [2] is a great place to see other things that may pop up in the road to AGI. LLMs are great, but they do too much at once. I think moving towards AGI re…
There's mounting evidence LLMs do appear to form models of the real world https://thegradient.pub/othello/
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#168Earlier quoted context omitted.
I disagree with you. > Essentially all we've done is pushed the basic model proposed by linear regression to it's absolutely limits No, we haven't pushed linear regression to its limits. If it was only linear regression, it wouldn't work. Neural networks need a non-linearity to model complex things. The beauty is that given an infinite series of nonlinearities, one can model any mathematical function. In practice we…
Andrej Karpathy, the director of AI at tesla, published an AMAZING video about how the current models are built which I think everyone in the tech space should watch. It is intuitive, easy to follow and quite frankly the best video I have seen on the topic. Here is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCc8FmEb1nY&list=FL2tbfd7UpJ... If you conclude, after watching this, that this is all intelligence is - namely…
> If you conclude, after watching this, that this is all intelligence is - namely cascading optimization and data structure problems chained in a row, then you and a fair number of people here wont ever find common ground.
They won't find common ground with who?
Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#169Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years
#170Earlier quoted context omitted.
I disagree with you. > Essentially all we've done is pushed the basic model proposed by linear regression to it's absolutely limits No, we haven't pushed linear regression to its limits. If it was only linear regression, it wouldn't work. Neural networks need a non-linearity to model complex things. The beauty is that given an infinite series of nonlinearities, one can model any mathematical function. In practice we…
You don't need non-linearities, an infinite series of sine functions is enough to model any function. For extraordinary claims ('intelligence'), the burden of proof is on those making the claim, not on others to prove the negative.
>You don't need non-linearities, an infinite series of sine functions is enough
The sine function is nonlinear.