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Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

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Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#161

Post by taylodl »

gwbas1c wrote: post #100
basch wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You hear this all the time. There is no such thing as a huge lead in automaking. It’s an incredibly clonable product, and each company has huge teams taking apart each others products. It’s also not really the product that matters. It’s service centers, parts, repairs, manufacturing capacity. The traditional companies have entrenched supply chains to get parts, and cars, across the country and into hands. All the new…

Think of it from the perspective of disruption. Large, incumbent businesses get disrupted all the time. A major indicator of a David beating a Goliath is when the rules of the business change. And, with EVs, the rules of the business have changed, pretty much overnight. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma IMO: Rivian is ripe for a major investment from an outsider with a lot of cash, (like Amazon,…

Automotive companies have vast R&D budgets and they've been researching (and improving) EV's for decades. Many auto manufacturers have been involved in Formula E racing, keeping up the tradition of developing technology on the race track and then moving it into production for the consumer market.

Now that there's been a spike in consumer interest in EV's these companies would like to recoup that R&D, not to mention they want to be recognized as leaders in the automotive world. I wouldn't want to start a business to take on Mercedes, BMW, Renault, Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche, Lexus - no way. Those guys will crush you.

The SUV and truck market is a different story, however and I think it's smart for Rivian to focus on that segment. They still have stiff competition from the likes of Ford, GM, Toyota and Honda but Toyota and Honda haven't been as active in EV's as the other world-class automotive manufacturers so you stand a better chance competing with them. GM and Ford have a history of failures in responding to rapidly shifting market demands (think of their disasters in the 70's and even into the 80's with producing cars achieving good fuel economy and lower emissions). Now is the time to compete against Ford and GM. Of all the upstart EV makers I think Rivian is best positioned to really stand out and make a name for themselves. As long as they stay away from cars.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#162

Post by rootusrootus »

rootusrootus wrote: post #54

Financial experts: Do they break it down in a way that shows the COGS for each vehicle produced? Has that dropped a significant amount from a year ago?

To answer my own question, the numbers suggest COGS-per-vehicle has increased since last quarter, not dropped. Rivian is burning a lot of money every time they product another vehicle.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#163

Post by legitster »

rootusrootus wrote: post #160
legitster wrote: post #74

I'm still pretty optimistic on Rivian. Building an auto manufacturer from scratch is pretty up there as one of the hardest/most expensive business challenge that exists. The fact that they have survived through the "burning money" stage to get to the other side at all is pretty powerful. All the examples of car startups that failed only did so because they struggled to drum up sales in their day (DeLorean, Fiskar, Tu…

It seems, though, like they are not at all through the 'burning money' stage. The marginal costs to manufacture appear to still be in the neighborhood of 3x the price of the vehicle. They seem optimistic they can turn that around this year, but promises are easy.

The cost per vehicle (all expenses total/ # of vehicles) may be 3x the sale price, but the marginal cost (the cost to produce one more car to sell) is still less than the sale price.

An important distinction. Otherwise selling cars would cost them money.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#164

Post by lr1970 »

gwbas1c wrote: post #100
basch wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You hear this all the time. There is no such thing as a huge lead in automaking. It’s an incredibly clonable product, and each company has huge teams taking apart each others products. It’s also not really the product that matters. It’s service centers, parts, repairs, manufacturing capacity. The traditional companies have entrenched supply chains to get parts, and cars, across the country and into hands. All the new…

Think of it from the perspective of disruption. Large, incumbent businesses get disrupted all the time. A major indicator of a David beating a Goliath is when the rules of the business change. And, with EVs, the rules of the business have changed, pretty much overnight. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator%27s_Dilemma IMO: Rivian is ripe for a major investment from an outsider with a lot of cash, (like Amazon,…

> IMO: Rivian is ripe for a major investment from an outsider with a lot of cash, (like Amazon,)

Amazon already invested billions in Rivian and had to write off the losses. It is not a simple game.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#165

Post by latchkey »

mgadams3 wrote: post #147
basch wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You hear this all the time. There is no such thing as a huge lead in automaking. It’s an incredibly clonable product, and each company has huge teams taking apart each others products. It’s also not really the product that matters. It’s service centers, parts, repairs, manufacturing capacity. The traditional companies have entrenched supply chains to get parts, and cars, across the country and into hands. All the new…

I'm an R1T owner and I can't even put into words why the truck is just so much better and differentiated. It's not just that it's an EV Truck... my friend has a Lightning and it has none of the magic of my Rivian. Magic in a vehicle.

The fact that you can't put it into words is probably part of the problem.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#166

Post by basch »

mgadams3 wrote: post #147
basch wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You hear this all the time. There is no such thing as a huge lead in automaking. It’s an incredibly clonable product, and each company has huge teams taking apart each others products. It’s also not really the product that matters. It’s service centers, parts, repairs, manufacturing capacity. The traditional companies have entrenched supply chains to get parts, and cars, across the country and into hands. All the new…

I'm an R1T owner and I can't even put into words why the truck is just so much better and differentiated. It's not just that it's an EV Truck... my friend has a Lightning and it has none of the magic of my Rivian. Magic in a vehicle.

How much better it is, is not a measure of time. It may be a hugely improved product, and it may also be replicated in a few years. They also are not making many of them yet. Let's see it scale. (which maybe it will, but they dont deserve credit for something they have not done yet.)

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#167

Post by basch »

dogma1138 wrote: post #153
basch wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You hear this all the time. There is no such thing as a huge lead in automaking. It’s an incredibly clonable product, and each company has huge teams taking apart each others products. It’s also not really the product that matters. It’s service centers, parts, repairs, manufacturing capacity. The traditional companies have entrenched supply chains to get parts, and cars, across the country and into hands. All the new…

I disagree there are two primary leads in the automotive industry manufacturing and supply chain. These are both hard to build, and require not only a monumental capital investment but also a lot of organizational experience to get right especially around QA and also can easily be a handicap for example established automakers often base their design choices on their existing supply chain and part availability as they…

We agree. I should have been more precise in my words. I meant there is no huge lead in the product itself.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#168

Post by rootusrootus »

legitster wrote: post #163
rootusrootus wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems, though, like they are not at all through the 'burning money' stage. The marginal costs to manufacture appear to still be in the neighborhood of 3x the price of the vehicle. They seem optimistic they can turn that around this year, but promises are easy.

The cost per vehicle (all expenses total/ # of vehicles) may be 3x the sale price, but the marginal cost (the cost to produce one more car to sell) is still less than the sale price. An important distinction. Otherwise selling cars would cost them money.

COGS per vehicle is still way more than twice the average selling price. Yes, selling cars costs them money. They have to figure out how to make the manufacturing process use fewer and cheaper parts, less labor, etc. It is a difficult problem because scaling only offers incremental improvements to COGS.

Re: Rivian announces 1B gross loss and 600M revenue [pdf]

#170

Post by aaomidi »

alistairSH wrote: post #156
aaomidi wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electricity is everywhere. Like. Everywhere. It’s only a matter of time before the charging network expands.

LOL. No it isn't. I camp in the Appalachians regularly, from DC. There a quite a few spots I can't get to without a 3 hour charging detour (2 hours charge time, 1 hour road detour to get to EV station) on the return leg. And that's for areas that are only 3-4 hours away (one direction). [this was using ABRP and a mid-range Riviant R1T]

I think y’all are mixing up “electricity is everywhere” which is what I stated with “charging stations are everywhere”

These are different problems.

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