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International Security and Estonia 2023

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Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#161

Post by varjag »

lebed2045 wrote: post #97
querez wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No they shouldn't. Russia has played the "we must protect the Russian minority in that region" card before to justify military action. Its' the whole reason we have a war in Ukraine. Estonia must make ensure that no such pretense can exist in their country. Denying citizenship to people who don't denounce their Russian nationality and don't fully accept "becoming Estonian" is the right thing to do, IMO.

It’s just nonsense. If the agresor wants to invade the country- they do that regardless. Germany-Poland the obvious example. If anything, the discrimination of local russian minority makes look it extremely injusted and oppressive.

If you legalize a sizeable population loyal to another country, they can be manipulated to derail political processes in the host country via normal democratic procedures. Things like NATO or EU ascension become challenging. Estonia was right to nip this in the bud.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#162

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

This is realpolitik, so there isn't any morality beyond expansion and acquisition. Can we stop pretending these are anything other than resource wars, combined with an excuse to throw money at the defence industries?

Russia looked at US actions in Iraq etc and apparently had an irrational attack of imperial atrocity envy, blended with greed over the mineral-rich areas of Eastern Ukraine.

Neither empire is wholesome and good, but the Russians are almost wholly crap at militarised colonialism, while the US is fairly competent at it.

However... Russia is much better at subversion and bribery. Given Jan 6 and the wholesale co-option of the far right of the Republican party - which is most of it - only someone very naive would believe that the US and NATO aren't in danger of being subverted from within. It almost happened in 2020 and it could still happen in 2024.

My suspicion is that Ukraine is part distraction, part attrition campaign against NATO, and part proxy war with China, with Russia as willing (because naively stupid) intermediary.

The real front is the internal politics of each NATO state.

Hungary is already lost, the UK is severely weakened by Brexit, Germany was compromised but is recovering, and the US has some very serious problems with infiltration and subversion.

Which are not being taken seriously enough.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#163

Post by kathysgeek »

consumer451 wrote: post #105
qaq wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mostly US.

How does "the left" give them a pass exactly? Until recently, both Dems and Reps were happy to fund and expand NATO, which is basically and anti-russian expansion org. Now Republicans seem to have an issue with that though. I just don't understand what you mean by "Russia has gotten a pass?"

Caitlin Johnstone is a lefty shilling for Russia. Chomsky blames NATO expansionism for the war.

I see lots of such posts by my lefty friends with nary a mention of Russian culpability.

https://caitlinjohnstone.substack.com/p/its-not-okay-for-gro... https://www.afr.com/world/europe/chomsky-we-re-approaching-t...

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#164

Post by O__________O »

01ce8c91872dd6d wrote: post #131
O__________O wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point even having a Russian speaking population is potentially a liability regardless if they’re pro-Russian or not, since Russia will just spin whatever pro-Estonian or anti-Russian sentiment they say to be propaganda and Russia will just say they obviously need to be liberated so they’re able to express their support for Russia. While only roughly 300,000 to 450,000 of 1.3 million of Estonians have ethnic t…

that sure sounds like a question in dire need of a solution!

Only if you consider a 100 year old border a dire situation. Otherwise it would make way more sense economically for Russia to offer to resettle anyone interested no longer being Estonian instead of invading yet another sovereign country.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#165

Post by redbar0n »

“China’s efforts to build a community of like-minded countries opposed to the West under the banner of the Global Security Initiative – which would also include Russia – undermines Estonia’s security.”

Did someone say Global Defense Initiative (GDI)? Someone over there has played C&C a bit too much. :D

But they got the sides mixed up. It's more like Nod. (Which is a name taken from to "The Land of Nod" in Genesis, which was located to the east of Eden).

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#166

Post by O__________O »

randomname93857 wrote: post #160
O__________O wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point even having a Russian speaking population is potentially a liability regardless if they’re pro-Russian or not, since Russia will just spin whatever pro-Estonian or anti-Russian sentiment they say to be propaganda and Russia will just say they obviously need to be liberated so they’re able to express their support for Russia. While only roughly 300,000 to 450,000 of 1.3 million of Estonians have ethnic t…

For context: in USSR a person could not choose to move to live in another area, city or town. that was VERY difficult to do (was possible by marriage). Baltic countries and any close to border areas were especially controlled. But military, KGB and Communist party could appoint people to live in Baltic countries. those were "special" people - that proved their allegiance I can say. That is why they are a challenge to…

My understanding is the Estonian-Russian border as it is currently has been in place over 100 years, is this inaccurate?

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#167

Post by varjag »

joshuaissac wrote: post #118
querez wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No they shouldn't. Russia has played the "we must protect the Russian minority in that region" card before to justify military action. Its' the whole reason we have a war in Ukraine. Estonia must make ensure that no such pretense can exist in their country. Denying citizenship to people who don't denounce their Russian nationality and don't fully accept "becoming Estonian" is the right thing to do, IMO.

About a third of the ethnic Russians in Estonia do not have Russian nationality, so they are effectively stateless.

The alien passport gives you mobility across Schengen area and free access to Russia (without having to live in Russia). For its owners it's a decent value.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#168

Post by icegreentea2 »

HatchedLake721 wrote: post #122

I highly encourage people to watch “How the United States created Vladimir Putin” that was presented in Yale University by Vladimir Pozner. It gives another perspective that’s often ignored how US and European foreign policy has played part in shaping what Russia is today. https://youtu.be/8X7Ng75e5gQ

I think it's important to acknowledge that this perspective forms a significant part of Russian internal justification for it's action. Significantly, this allows Russia to claim to be a victim in pretty much all interactions with the west.

I don't think Russia should have been able to dictate the terms of NATO enlargement, but I do think the way that we enlarged NATO, combined with the lackluster way that the west attempted to engage with Russia was a foreign policy failure.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#169

Post by redbar0n »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #162

This is realpolitik, so there isn't any morality beyond expansion and acquisition. Can we stop pretending these are anything other than resource wars, combined with an excuse to throw money at the defence industries? Russia looked at US actions in Iraq etc and apparently had an irrational attack of imperial atrocity envy, blended with greed over the mineral-rich areas of Eastern Ukraine. Neither empire is wholesome a…

> militarised colonialism, while the US is fairly competent at it.

Are they, actually? Vietnam, Afghanistan etc..

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#170

Post by duxup »

actionfromafar wrote: post #39
girvo wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not, and hasn’t ever really been, just about Ukraine “joining” NATO, because that was never on the cards. It still isn’t, even despite all of this. There’s a lot more to it. Also you’re incorrect in your assessment of most of the Russian elite thinking this war was a good idea, that’s just not true, or you’re making the mistake of taking statements by them at face value, which my Ukrainian/Russian extended famil…

It also depends on what you mean by elite. The social elite in Moscow or St Petersburg does not run the show. Neither does the military. The security apparatus does.

And it doesn’t appear the security forces know exactly what is going on.
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