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Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

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Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#161

Post by notch656c »

idopmstuff wrote: post #153
notch656c wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I wonder if you've shorted the equities markets to the greatest degree practically possible given your financial situation? If not, then I think you're phrasing things with too great a degree of absoluteness. The equities market doesn't have great correlation with the common pleb's job outlook so it makes no sense to short the equities market based on these kind of predictions.

The prediction was that we are guaranteed to go into a recession. Are you suggesting that we might have a recession in which the stock market doesn't decline? Bear in mind that this is a situation in which we can be sure the Fed will not prop it up, since they're the cause of it going down in the first place. If we're making predictions about recessions based on history, then it seems pretty clear that the result of…

Apologies for not being clear. I was referring to this quote which you quoted.

>But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off. There will not be a soft landing.

It seemed like you were responding to this statement that was about employment rather than the stock market, before making your comment about shorting the equities market.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#162

Post by mym1990 »

xienze wrote: post #74
willcipriano wrote: post #25

Remember when everyone cut jobs and canceled orders at the beginning of the pandemic and it really bit them? I'm like 49% sure that's going to happen again. Something funny is in the air.

It’s slightly different dynamics. At the beginning of the pandemic, people thought the world was going to end (either in literal terms or just economic ones). The massive hiring came after people realized that life would go on. What’s happening today is a result of the free money spigot being turned off. The layoffs and hiring freezes are going to be a bit more sticky.

There is also a lower chance of having stimulus to soften the initial blow for those being laid off. It also seemed like layoffs at the start of the pandemic were centered around the service industry, where as now we are seeing them in a broader context.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#164

Post by madrox »

dakiol wrote: post #86

Perhaps I'm naive, but I think companies are doing massive layoffs these days because of some sort of "domino effect". There are companies out there who would love to lay off half their staff, but in regular times they couldn't just do it (because it wasn't a common thing, and makes them look "bad"... everyone would protest). But since nowadays every damn company is doing massive layoffs (and not unknown companies, b…

This was my initial take six months ago, but I've come to realize this is about runways. Imagine you just lost your job. First thing you'd want to do is get some idea of how long it'll be until you can get another one, then look at your budget and cash on hand to make sure you can pay the bills. If you don't, you have the options of borrowing money (which is hard and a bad deal in these circumstances) or selling some of your stuff. This is basically what companies are doing.

It's a bad deal for companies to borrow money or take big investments when interest rates are so high. If you want to avoid doing that, you need to predict when interest rates will drop and make sure you have enough cash to ride it out. In spite of being successful, some companies don't have the cash, and they need to reduce their burn rate.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#165

Post by ramesh31 »

idopmstuff wrote: post #125
grey-area wrote: post #112

A global recession is coming against a backdrop of the Fed raising rates, that is going to be very painful. A lot of people here don't seem to realise this is the case or are in denial. This is a bubble bursting, this is serious. Lots of companies are laying off workers or at least freezing hiring because they anticipate earnings cratering, or are already seeing it happen. They haven't reported on it yet, but they wi…

As far as I can tell, layoffs seem concentrated among high-earning folks - I can definitely see how anyone browsing HN would think we're headed straight for a recession. But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off. That actually really gives me hope for a soft landing - those high-wage folks are much less likely to have…

>As far as I can tell, layoffs seem concentrated among high-earning folks - I can definitely see how anyone browsing HN would think we're headed straight for a recession. But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off.

Shit rolls downhill. We'll see how well the service economy holds up when their client base has been out of work for 6 months.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#167

Post by qqqwerty »

AYBABTME wrote: post #141
qqqwerty wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My understanding is that the fed is leaning into this particularly hard in order to dislodge the stubborn housing bubble. They are trying to reduce inflation. The housing bubble certainly played a part, but inflation was hitting nearly everything. A big concern here, is that many smart people think a fair bit of that inflation was due to COVID related supply chain disruptions (which still persist, see China and COV…

With China dropping its zero-covid policy, I think we're realistically on the way out. However there's no avoiding that we need to pay for 2-3 years of lost global productivity. I mean picture yourself stopping work for 2-3y with zero planning, living on debt and pretending like nothing happened. At some point the bills come due.

I am not sure what to think about China. Dropping the zero-covid policy feels like just the start. They still might go through a couple of waves of covid before things get back to normal. Or things could snap back fairly quick, hard to predict.

Another factor working its way through the system is the "reshoring" of manufacturing. A lot of companies gave up on China and are moving their manufacturing to other countries or closer to home. This probably creates inflationary pressures as the development of the manufacturing facilities create s a fair bit of demand, but also staffing the facility creates more demand for the local workforce. So if this trend continues I could seeing this being a long term inflationary pressure.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#168

Post by tuatoru »

thwayunion wrote: post #116
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would agree with you, except for the fact that hiring was completely out of control during 2021-2022 Taking Amazon for example, look at this chart: https://www.statista.com/chart/7581/amazons-global-workforce... Amazon's headcount literally doubled from 2019 to 2021. The recent layoffs barely move their headcount back at all. While Amazon may be the most visible, this pattern was repeated across a lot of smaller co…

> Amazon's headcount literally doubled from 2019 to 2021. What you're leaving out is that Amazon's net sales literally doubled between 2019 and 2021, from $280MM to $470MM. The doubling of headcount over that period was perfectly rational and in-line with its business model. There was definitely irrational exuberance in hiring during 2021-2022. But Amazon's exuberance was far more rational than most of tech. Ironical…

What gp is also leaving out is that employment in leisure and hospitality cratered. No-one was going to restaurants or hotels.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#169

Post by greatpostman »

pbalau wrote: post #78
greatpostman wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These people just got into amazon early and rode the wave to the top. Some of them are truly talented, most were in the right place at the right time

You are phrasing this as most of these people were simply lucky to be there, when the reality is that most of these people are the reason why Amazon is the top dog in online retail...

I spent a long time working at Amazon. Pretty clear to me many people were right place right time. True world changing meritocratic talent is rare and the opportunities for it to even matter even rarer
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