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Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

hannahritchie.substack.com

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Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market is rigged by an industry(ies) (auto, oil) to develop society in its favor. Without a major 'refactor', the US doesn't have a chance at efficient urban design that would support individual use transport.

It is rigged because people want high speed climate controlled transportation. Prior to oil and autos, there were enclosed carriages pulled by horses.

The market was rigged by oil and auto before cars were climate controlled.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#162
This is such a dumb analysis - Lithium batteries are used in everything - tools, consumer electronics, medical devices, home and grid storage and all of the sectors that will be using it soon. Not to mention if you want to push larger transport sectors and grid de-carbonization you will need massive GwH batteries with 100kg+ of lithium. We clearly need more solutions, stop pushing lithium batteries like they can solve all the world's energy problems.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reality is that electric vehicles are a fools errand. The real winning strategy is one that overall reduces dependency on vehicles, and moves more to walking, biking, and mass transit. This would mean actually making hard decisions and having policy changes though. You lower the CO2 produced by orders of magnitude compared to even electric vehicles.

No cars for poor people. I think that’s the obvious direction we’re heading. Congestion pricing. The private jets will still fly off to Davos every spring.

> private jets will still fly off to Davos every spring

I’m surprised nobody has proposed a synthetic jet fuel mandate for private jets. It’s defensible. It would jumpstart demand for a fuel we’ll need for general aviation. And it lets folks keep flying.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#164

This is such a dumb analysis - Lithium batteries are used in everything - tools, consumer electronics, medical devices, home and grid storage and all of the sectors that will be using it soon. Not to mention if you want to push larger transport sectors and grid de-carbonization you will need massive GwH batteries with 100kg+ of lithium. We clearly need more solutions, stop pushing lithium batteries like they can solv…

"We clearly need more solutions, stop pushing lithium batteries like they can solve all the world's energy problems."

That's right. We need to push natrium based batteries for stationary use cases, like grid storage and reserve the lithium based for mobile use.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#165
post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

In theory, but that would also require changing how/where many people live (which would require a lot of construction which would require energy and concrete - both bad things for the environment). I’m thinking over my schedule today and needing to drive the kids places, often many miles away in different directions, plus going to work, running errands with multiple people, etc. Both a bike and a trike would be wildl…

A cargo ebike is a game changer for all of this. I can bring 2 kids to school and do a full grocery trip without even breaking a sweat. I do 6 miles each way and since I avoid traffic it's just as fast as driving.

Plenty of people bike all 4 seasons, the Netherlands is the go-to example... it rains a lot there. Driving to work under-dressed in a heated box is a luxury that's kind of harmed a lot of people's ability to know how to dress for the weather. It's not particularly difficult.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#166
post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

With that logic you could also argue that much more will be needed for trucks and heavy equipment. I don’t know if it averages out, but I don’t think you can assume that less is needed not more, or the same as the article.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#167
post #56

IMVHO > How much lithium does the world have? We don’t really know for sure. That's the simple main point. The rest are speculation. Oh, sure "not being sure" is not a reason not to try, but is a reason to have some backups. SO far we lack them. And that's the main issue. The secondary issue is recycling of metals, so far we have many experimental procedures, more or less doable at a not-just-lab scale, but nothing u…

> nothing usable on scale There are many battery recyclers in China that grind up lithium ion batteries all day every day and recover the metals.

Even if you can do it on scale and with a very high recovery rate of 90%, after 7 cycles half of the lithium is gone. Given the massive environmental effects of the mining and the relatively scarce reserves we need to allocate the metal very carefully. It should not be used to maintain a broken business model IMO.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's your justification for saying that it's the US with a profoundly distorted market and not places like Utrecht?

How about the fact that America's most walkable and transit-accessible neighborhoods are also the most expensive and highest demand? People want this kind of development, they flock to it, and they are willing to pay astronomically high prices to get it. The government keeps the supply low with exclusionary zoning that makes all types of construction except car-centric single family housing illegal.

You have evidence of that claim? I took a look around me. The most expensive and highest demand areas are actually not transit accessible at all and walking is not really feasible as the houses have lots of land and are very spread out. I am in the Sacramento area for reference.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory, but that would also require changing how/where many people live (which would require a lot of construction which would require energy and concrete - both bad things for the environment). I’m thinking over my schedule today and needing to drive the kids places, often many miles away in different directions, plus going to work, running errands with multiple people, etc. Both a bike and a trike would be wildl…

A cargo ebike is a game changer for all of this. I can bring 2 kids to school and do a full grocery trip without even breaking a sweat. I do 6 miles each way and since I avoid traffic it's just as fast as driving. Plenty of people bike all 4 seasons, the Netherlands is the go-to example... it rains a lot there. Driving to work under-dressed in a heated box is a luxury that's kind of harmed a lot of people's ability t…

>A cargo ebike is a game changer for all of this

Not so long as a "never in a lifetime on average" crash remains an acceptable justification to spend tens of thousands of dollars it's not. And that's ignoring weather and convenience.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There isn't any reason people in America couldn't choose such things. They just don't. If the selling of the idea is failing, maybe the idea is the problem and not the people you're selling it to.

how exactly would this work if you have multiple small children, or are disabled, or a variety of other things. Why is there this insistence that Americans are just 'big dumb'

I find the city to be better for small children and for disabled people than car focused suburbs to be honest. It means stuff is closer to get to and both groups of people are not completely reliant on other people driving them around to get to places. I do not believe the only way a world can be livable for disabled people, small children, and elderly people, is to pave the entire country in tens of millions of miles of roads and drive on them with heavy and dangerous polluting machines.
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