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TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

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Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#161

Does the CHIPS act have anything to do with making this happen? It's funny to think that the supply chain gurus at Apple & NVIDIA may be doing the work of geopolitics in the service of just defending their bottom line from disruption.

Apple spent something like a half-trillion on share buybacks. They could have averted this crisis a decade ago by thinking strategically. They didn't. Why give them credit where little or no credit is due?

Do you mean Apple should’ve built a fab instead of spending on buybacks?

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#162
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intel has lots of leading edge fabs in the US and continues to build them. They made some business mistakes around not opening up their chip design the way ARM enabled ... but the tech capacity is all there. Now they are doing contract production for chips that they did not design so I expect them to catch up in a few years.

Meanwhile Chris Miller in Chip War argues that Intel will fail again since nobody wants to give their secrets to Intel. If you’re Apple, for example, then handing over chip designs to Intel isn’t ideal in terms of competition.

No post body was provided.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#163
post #152

Why did TSMC agreed to give away the most important technology to a foreign country? It doesn't look like a choice one would do voluntary. In my opinion, they should better give away some outdated technology like 45 or 65nm. This reminds me of China which forced some Western manufacturers to transfer technology to them.

Give away to a foreign country? You realize that TSMC is a publicly traded company and they have a shareholder responsibility in managing their operational risk?

As I understand:

1) operating a large plant in US is much more expensive than in Taiwan and it will bring less profit. So it it not financially motivated decision.

2) US can restrict export of chips to other countries and TSMC will lose money in this case

3) US can copy the secrets, share them with Intel and AMD, and make chips without paying TSMC

So this looks like a risky and not profitable decision to me.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are lightyears behind. 20 years if not more. These chip machines is work of many decates of iterative work. You cannot simply step in and produce similar tech.

You underestimate the insane R&D investment china can put on its chip industry to get ahead quicker

I may be naive, but I think R&D in those cutting-edge sectors is not something you can just throw money at and then get results, you need to create the foundation for it first. Is there evidence that links more open societies and liberal economies to technological progress?

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#165
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but local fabs in Europe are far, far away from Intel, TSMC and Samsung. Infineon, NXP and STM are wayy behind.

Why do we even want cutting edge fabs in Europe? We have no companies that design cutting edge logic chips here. Literally none. Why invest 20 billion dollars (or what is the price of a cutting edge fab these days?) to create supply without demand? Or do we seriously expect that US companies will generate significant demand even though TSMC and Samsung are already building heavily subsidized fabs in the US ?

> or what is the price of a cutting edge fab these days?

Intel says they're going for two factories of 20 bln indeed [1], Samsung for 17 bln in Taylor, Texas [2], and Micron claims to go for 100 bln (over time) in Clay, New York [3].

> Why invest 20 billion dollars [...] to create supply without demand?

Why do we have to pay about 5 dollars per month for a VPS with only 1 vCPU, 1 GB RAM, and 10 GB storage? I'm certainly hoping these specs to all increase 10-fold over the next 10 years for the same price.

[1]: https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/intel-...

[2]: https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announce...

[3]: https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-deta...

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#166
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One plant does not change the game that much. You still need TSMC to keep working on whatever the next tech will be as well as all their current production in Taiwan which is fully booked.

As I understand, one plant is enough to copy all secrets of nanofabrication and build similar plants.

No post body was provided.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>typically cheaper labour. While a factor, labor costs alone are the primary reason. In reality is more about the wider regulatory burden on a company, including environmental controls That said it does not explain why a Japan Company can make cars profitably in the US but a US Manufacturer can not. If it was only labor why would Toyota not have a factory right next to GM's in Mexico and import cars from Mexico to t…

I guess its that the Japanese Company can make cars profitably anywhere but making cars for the US market in the US means there's no/less import taxes, also because the factories are huge they often get local tax breaks, and the cars may also eligible for EV/hybrid tax credits (I think Toyota have sold over 200K so there cars can no longer get this). I think making cars in Mexico for the US became less worthwhile whe…

>US became less worthwhile when Trump pulled the US out of NAFTA.

lol, trump did not "pull the US Out of NAFTA" not only is that not with in the power of the president to do, it was never on the table, NATA was replaced with USMCA, and only made a few small changes, for Automotive that means 75% of the vehicle components must be made in MX, US, or Canada, up from 64% under NAFTA

Nothing in the law would impact making at car in the US vs MX, and was aimed at preventing increased parts from China or other non-north American nations, and all of the changes were passed by congress with wide bipartisan support

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#168

Poor Taiwanese people... their security insurance has just been cancelled. I wonder how many days after the first successful batches of chips coming out of the Arizona fab will China invade Taiwan. I do hope not, but realistically: with high-end chips being made on US soil, the US will have very little interest in protecting Taiwan, apart from maybe blocking China from also acquiring the tech.

First, your phrasing could read as concern trolling style gloating, which you probably didn't intend.

China may invade Taiwan within my lifetime, but it won't be triggered by anything to do with TSMC.

China and the US are both involved in the Taiwan conflict due to history, ideology, and current economic relationships. Nothing material about that changes with TSMC building facilities in the US. If anything US ties grow stronger.

TSMC is not something China can acquire with military power. It's not a building in a RTS game you can just take over and operate yourself. It's a huge number of engineers and a globe spanning high tech supply chain. All that grinds to a halt the moment missiles fly into Taiwan.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#169
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Give away to a foreign country? You realize that TSMC is a publicly traded company and they have a shareholder responsibility in managing their operational risk?

As I understand: 1) operating a large plant in US is much more expensive than in Taiwan and it will bring less profit. So it it not financially motivated decision. 2) US can restrict export of chips to other countries and TSMC will lose money in this case 3) US can copy the secrets, share them with Intel and AMD, and make chips without paying TSMC So this looks like a risky and not profitable decision to me.

> not financially motivated decision

Ensuring availability of goods?

David Ricardo never said that England should depend on Portugal for wine, and Portugal on England for clothes.

Edit: apologies, I read the original point as referred to the USA as a decisor, not to Taiwan (as the poster intended). The former point remains, about the clear opportunity for strengthening ties.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Already being planned by Intel. They're building a new leading edge fab in Magdeburg, Germany [1]. This is backed by the new European Chips Act [2]. Wheels have started turning very quickly with regards to home-grown semiconductors in 2022. [1] https://www.intel.co.uk/content/www/uk/en/newsroom/news/eu-n... [2] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_...

I always find it odd that companies always want to be build things outside of their home state TSMC -> US Intel -> EU Toyota -> US Honda -> US Ford -> MX / Canada GM -> MX / Canada

Three reasons:

1. By operating a local subsidiary, you avoid unfavorable regulation and sometimes protectionism (Toyota/Honda/Intel).

2. Cost savings (transportation, labor, taxes, etc).

3.Proximity to customers.

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