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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

economist.com

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Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#161

Post by chrischen »

spamizbad wrote: post #155
bryanlarsen wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Xi is one of the most rational actors on the world stage. Machiavellian rational, but rational. I recommend the Economist's podcast series on him.

Is he? I feel like everyone said this about Putin and now the narrative has changed and he's an unstable madman whose going to launch a nuke if he loses too badly in his war. Like many politicians, Xi is ruthlessly self-interested. His actions that allow him to consolidate power aren't necessarily in the best interests of China.

Consolidating power isn’t inherently against the interests of China. And as poster above explained, Putin is acting rationally. In fact, war is probably one of the most rational and pervasive actions throughout history. Probably every country has gone to war and it’s not always because some madman went berserk.

It’s always in our interest to simply reduce our enemy to madmen or nazis, as it justifies our own counter aggression.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#162

Post by Retric »

rzwitserloot wrote: post #42
Isinlor wrote: post #22

China already declared that it will use force in Taiwan if "possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted". From Chinese Anti-Secession Law: Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or t…

> can't be caught off guard by China as EU was caught off guard by Russia. There's always a bigger fish. The last time nations were obsessed with autarky, we got WW1, and soon after, WW2. Most countries (i.e. every country not suffering from a drastic case of the resource curse) have the nature that if they trade a lot with another country, either country would lose economic value if they invade the other, _even if_…

It’s less that Europe is using more Russian gas than they had insufficient infrastructure to get alternatives to Russian natural gas.

Ukraine was invaded because they have a great deal of oil and natural gas and could therefore significantly impact the Russian economy especially if the world starts to reduce Fossil fuel use.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#163

Post by deqwer »

reportingsjr wrote: post #66
bouncycastle wrote: post #50

Related: There is a massive TSMC factory being built in Japan right now. Take a look at the pictures, I've never seen this many cranes at one location: https://www.nhk.jp/static/assets/images/newblogposting/ts/7P... https://cdn-cw-english.cwg.tw/ckeditor/202205/ckeditor-628ae... It looks like a forest of cranes...

I saw some pictures a while ago on twitter of their new fab in Arizona under construction. It looked pretty similar. TSMC means business when they start building out. I don't want to imagine handling logistics on a construction site like this!

I had friends in Taiwan construction industry. They said TSMC will pay them extra just to make the construction time shorter, even 2x the cost. So you see firms love working with TSMC since they can get higher margin than typical factory construction.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#164

Post by selectodude »

petra wrote: post #143
Dah00n wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>China doesn't possess the capability to build their own competitive chips The US doesn't either. ASML is the only supplier of cutting-edge lithography systems and they are Dutch, not from Taiwan or the US. Without them Intel and TSMC couldn't do what they do and US sanctions is why China can't currently build competitive chips. It is not because of some kind of US tech brilliance.

I believe TSMC is 50% owned by US companies.

Intel owns a significant chunk of ASML but it’s always been a fully Dutch company.

That being said, ASML is 100 percent reliant on US Government research for their EUV breakthroughs, which is why the USG can tell them who they can and can’t sell to.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#165

Post by toyg »

rzwitserloot wrote: post #42
Isinlor wrote: post #22

China already declared that it will use force in Taiwan if "possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted". From Chinese Anti-Secession Law: Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or t…

> can't be caught off guard by China as EU was caught off guard by Russia. There's always a bigger fish. The last time nations were obsessed with autarky, we got WW1, and soon after, WW2. Most countries (i.e. every country not suffering from a drastic case of the resource curse) have the nature that if they trade a lot with another country, either country would lose economic value if they invade the other, _even if_…

> Russia had to do something or their economy would fall apart

Ukraine would solve nothing in the Russian economy.

Ukraine would simply secure two things: Crimea (which is essential to Russia and was strategically exposed), and complete control on all main gas infrastructure towards Europe. It's not a coincidence that the invasion was launched when it became clear that the new gasduct to the North was dead in the water (because of American opposition to it): Putin wanted to make gas furniture to Europe strategically independent from other countries (i.e. completely dependent on Russia), one way or the other. The original calculation was probably "You don't give me Nordstream, so I'll take everything else". Obviously it didn't go as planned.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#166

Post by enraged_camel »

spamizbad wrote: post #155
bryanlarsen wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Xi is one of the most rational actors on the world stage. Machiavellian rational, but rational. I recommend the Economist's podcast series on him.

Is he? I feel like everyone said this about Putin and now the narrative has changed and he's an unstable madman whose going to launch a nuke if he loses too badly in his war. Like many politicians, Xi is ruthlessly self-interested. His actions that allow him to consolidate power aren't necessarily in the best interests of China.

>> Is he?

Yeah, Biden himself recently said that Putin is a rational actor who grossly miscalculated, because he was basically fed very bad and flawed intel. He may be blustering about nukes now, but the only way he would do that is if Ukraine turns the tables and invades Russia, or something similar.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#167

Post by deqwer »

adeptima wrote: post #59
bouncycastle wrote: post #50

Related: There is a massive TSMC factory being built in Japan right now. Take a look at the pictures, I've never seen this many cranes at one location: https://www.nhk.jp/static/assets/images/newblogposting/ts/7P... https://cdn-cw-english.cwg.tw/ckeditor/202205/ckeditor-628ae... It looks like a forest of cranes...

"The plant will produce 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer chips to address strong global demand for speciality chip technologies, they said" I'm curious why not the latest - 3nm, 5nm

No post body was provided.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#168

Post by ChoGGi »

NavinF wrote: post #73
hulitu wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> tl:dr Global recession => lower chip demand for consumers Global recession is to blame for everything. I'm waiting for some years for payable video card, nothing special, but i guess Global recession is to blame. /s

You're waiting for a "payable video card" after prices crashed to an all time low? There are 3090s getting dumped for <$800 now. Is a 50% drop not enough for you?

Nope :)

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#170

Post by windexh8er »

greedo wrote: post #115
windexh8er wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But China doesn't actually have a lot of technological prowess on their own. The USG might be trying to slow them down but they're not concerned about China militarily. I worked for a defense contractor back in the early 2000s when the USG was selling a lot of arms and systems to Taiwan. I got to see the bullying in person via the ASOC (part of the C4ISR platform) system we were installing. China would routinely fly…

The US has no naval presence in Taiwan. USN ships might do port visits, but they have no basing rights. They will periodically transit the Straits on Freedom of Navigation (FON) exercises. The closest USN base is in Yokohama Japan.

I don't know if they had any basing rights at the time I was there, but given the USG was delivering weapons (military ships, etc) there was a large presence there at that point in time. I only know that through actual observations while on bases there.
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