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Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

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Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#161

The Three Trends (according to the article): 1. Medium: text -> images -> video -> 3D graphics -> VR 2. AI: time -> rank -> recommend -> generate 3. UI: click -> scroll -> tap -> swipe -> autoplay By this definition, the end of the line is a totally passive consumption of endorphin-inducing pablum that blots out the real world. (I may be exaggerating a touch.) It might stop short of a wire into the pleasure centers o…

Allow me to recommend Jenny Odell's book, How to Do Nothing[1], or watch a ~30m talk by Jenny[2]

1 https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/600671/how-to-do-no...

2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dveUrpp6vs8

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#162
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

VR is never going to be a replacement for short form video. Casual passive consumption of video benefits from being able to fit in between other activities easily. I'm never going to want an immersive experience when I have 2 minutes to kill waiting for a friend to show up at a bar - I just want easily digestible content snacks.

Likewise. I'd never want to have to take out my handheld computer, boot it up, and connect it to the internet just to kill 2 minutes looking at pictures of cats, when I can just as easily look at my wallet full of cat Polaroids. I see a future where you blink twice to power up your ocular nerve implants for a few minutes of stim, then power 'em down when you get a popup that your buddy is nearby and ordering drinks.

You think people in the future will have experiences in the real world with other real humans. That their buddy isn’t a bot algorithmically refined to maximally connect with it’s user. And that the user can power down their ocular implant. How cute.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#163

You have to dig through this entire article to get to the punchline, but here it is: > "These AI challenges, I would add, apply to monetization as well: one of the outcomes of Apple’s App Tracking Transparency changes is that advertising needs to shift from a deterministic model to a probabilistic one; the companies with the most data and the greatest amount of computing resources are going to make that shift more qu…

Your summary of this phenomenon resonates with my experiences navigating the internet all these years. I find reddit to be the most perfect example of watching something authentic, human, and real... devolve into a manufactured, astroturfed facsimile of a forum community.

Years ago, reddit was filled with interesting discussions and analysis. Beautiful debates would rage on /r/news about current events, with equal showing of opposing viewpoints. Deep discussions on cinema in /r/movies. Excited chatter about the next video game and people's past favorites in /r/games. It was a place to talk shop for any interest.

Today, reddit is a vastly different place. /r/news is a perfect example of how ad companies and political groups pulled it off. Around the height of Trumps office, the left was able to strongly rally around hatred for the man and therefore hatred for any conservative. During this time of high emotion, the /r/news subreddit had a mod overhaul which completely aligned the political framing to 100% progressive, with a search and destroy mentality to all right wing thought. Only certain "power users" with ties to established media companies and left wing political groups would post articles there and any competing user or troublesome commenter would be banned. After only a few months of this, anyone with a centrist or right wing opinion was banned or just left, and today /r/news is now a perfect echo chamber for progressive politics. If a newbie were to go visit /r/news on reddit today they would have to believe that surely everyone must think this way, and surely /r/news is a reflection of reality, but it is not, it is a curated and controlled echo chamber.

The power inherent in falsifying organic communities and engagement in propagandizing and selling things to people is incredible. Our society is increasingly distrusting of traditional media, news, talking heads and the like, and have turned to the authenticity of social media strangers to get a better idea of the real discourse around current events. When those pools of discussion get poisoned, manipulated, and falsified, it further breaks down our ability to understand each other or feel connected.

On the advertising front,/r/movies and /r/television are merely a constant stream of Movie/TV ads and celebrity gossip. /r/games might as well be the front page of a games industry magazine. The organic discussions are few and far between, and the marketing pushes from content creators are ever more apparent. You will see movies get odd posts by some rabid fan who just saw the newest release and can't wait to share how wonderful it was! Several comments agree that this new movie is a joy, great fun! Then you watch it and it's awful, true garbage, and if you search around you'll find out most real people agree... and you realize you were tricked, no human ever liked this dull film, some social media intern wrote that reddit post and paid for flair to pop it up. You start to realize that from mainstream reviews... to reddit posts.. everything online is bought and paid for. What can you believe?

This is the reality of the modern online social media space. Users are cattle to be herded towards products and worldviews and mindsets. Governments and companies alike prod and seduce us towards their desired result, and we're meant to believe that everything we're experiencing is authentic... but it isn't.

The question now is... what's next? We know that people feel more alone and disconnected than ever before, and that authenticity seems to be in dwindling supply... how can we take back the internet? How can real discussion and community build up again? Maybe it's discord, maybe it's web3.0. Who can say... but we cannot accept that this beautiful cyberspace of human knowledge is becoming the worlds largest marketing ploy.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more than that. In a game like roulette, probability has no memory. In slots, the payout must come eventually, and playing losing rounds only brings you closer to that. There are slots players just waiting for others to go bust so they can swoop in. Also, one would hope that those that are so addicted that they are fine to just haul-off and piss themselves would be able to think ahead and simply wear a diaper.

> In slots, the payout must come eventually, and playing losing rounds only brings you closer to that. Riiiigggghhhhttttt

The payout is always less than the take, but the parent is correct. In most areas (of the US at least) casino slot machines are pretty tightly regulated to have to pay out a certain percentage of the take.

To give an example, slot machines in Nevada must pay out a minimum of 75% of the take. Additionally, no programming/odds updates or machine resets may be made to the slot machine until the machine has sat idle for a minimum of 4 minutes; and if an update/reset is being made the machine _must_ clearly display that this is occurring.

So the sick thing here is that each loss does in fact bring you closer to the winning spin. One of the only real strategies of slot machines (in the sense that there can be a strategy to a game of luck) is to stand around idling watching other people lose, then after someone leaves a machine with a bad run you immediately drop in to the spot and start playing the same machine.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#165
"That was the problem with Twitter: it just wasn’t convenient for nearly enough people to figure out how to follow the right people."

This was never the problem with Twitter. The problem with Twitter is that it has no option to turn of retweets globally; don't show me retweets from anyone, only original tweets. If it had this, so that I would only see original content from people I follow, I would be back on Twitter.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#166

"That was the problem with Twitter: it just wasn’t convenient for nearly enough people to figure out how to follow the right people." This was never the problem with Twitter. The problem with Twitter is that it has no option to turn of retweets globally; don't show me retweets from anyone, only original tweets. If it had this, so that I would only see original content from people I follow, I would be back on Twitter.

They offer it on tweetdeck

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#167
There's so much wrong with this trend.

First, from a purely operational and pragmatic point of view, I'm stunned how paranoid well established networks are about the Tiktok competition, willing to make existential changes to mimic them whilst potentially destroying themselves.

Why can't there be differentiation? Why not improve your own network, fix its many issues, allow for some co-existence? "Innovate or die" is an exaggeration for Facebook and Youtube, they aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

Second, I'm shocked (but not really) how not a single of these companies (or governments) take a shred of responsibility in even thinking about the human impact. There's already a laundry list of serious problems associated with social media and the trajectory is to just escalate it even more? A machine rapidly feeding you short videos, many to be AI generated, as the ultimate "solution"?

Third, we've already established how the combination of social media and misinformation can lead to fatalities (example: FB and Myanmar), political interference, escalating polarization and instability, and more. The only counter force, ineffective as it may be, would be real users pushing back and trying to "correct" things.

The next generation has no such pushbacks. It's all just one recommendation engine with ultimate power. Do we even know what the fuck we're doing?

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#168
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

are you sure? it sounds like the exact same playlist on every station with the same owner in the same market with such little care about the content in the playlist but only based on an algorithm. so maybe AI === brain dead corporate owners?

Yes, we already have "slow AI". It's the corporate paperclip machine. It's has a strict value function; make money to shareholders. And it will do what ever it takes to make more of it. All these ppl scaring us with AGI are either distracting us from the clear and present dangers of slow AI so they can keep profiting from it , or are just duped by silly technooptimism.

Why do you think that a malevolent AGI wouldn't use these tactics to make money / influence public perception?

I think these are two sides of the same coin.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In slots, the payout must come eventually, and playing losing rounds only brings you closer to that. Riiiigggghhhhttttt

The payout is always less than the take, but the parent is correct. In most areas (of the US at least) casino slot machines are pretty tightly regulated to have to pay out a certain percentage of the take. To give an example, slot machines in Nevada must pay out a minimum of 75% of the take. Additionally, no programming/odds updates or machine resets may be made to the slot machine until the machine has sat idle for…

The 75% isn't calculated per player or per session. It's the theoretical minimum payout over the long run. Basically it's just code that does

  win = rand() 

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#170
post #30

>The payoff, though, will not be “power” for these small creators: the implication of entertainment being dictated by recommendations and AI instead of reputation and ranking is that all of the power accrues to the platform doing the recommending. This is what these companies want. Take the power away from a few ultra powerful users (Kardashians for example), and retain that power for themselves.

And yet... by doing this they're trying to socially engineer away something fundamental to all societies throughout humankind: people have been worshipping their influencers, celebrities, figureheads, idols, deities, demigods, and Gods their entire history. Even TikTok has its stars (and they're huge now).

The atomisation of culture is evidence enough for me to believe that this erosion of worship is already under way. Its so much more diffuse. The cultural icons we each follow is so diverse already.

I can imagine AI generated icons that only get to continue to persist if they can adequately capture the attention of X amount of productive apes.

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