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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#161

Post by Denzel »

carbadtraingood wrote: post #50
dreamcompiler wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Musk actually said this he's an even bigger idiot than I gave him credit for. He makes the best cars in the world (obviously IMHO) and that's worth a lot more than 0. I couldn't give less of a damn if they can't drive themselves.

As an owner for 5+ years, the cars show well but pretty quickly become a pain in the ass. They'll get eclipsed by other electric car manufacturers real quick. Edit: more specifically, the parts break and they are difficult to replace. The battery degrades. They stopped providing maps to the vehicle unless I'm willing to spend several hundred dollars to replace the media console, they've told me I'm covered by a recal…

Ok? As a Model 3 owner for 3+ years the car shows well and has been rock solid this whole time.

> Parts break difficult to replace

I think I had a set of squeaky control arms that Tesla replaced under warranty in less than a week, free of charge. I don’t remember because it was such a nonissue.

Side swiped by another driver; dented my fender, bumper, smashed the headlight. Their insurance took fault, Tesla certified body shop gave estimate and fixed in less than a week (from the time dropped off).

> The battery degrades

Knew this going in. What battery doesn’t? Still comfortably road-tripping and camping with the family in my car.

> They stopped providing maps

Huh? I receive updates every time my car updates which is often. I’m guessing you’re talking the an older Model S.

> Recall/warranty and unable to schedule appointment

I’ve scheduled 5+ appointments with Tesla service center or mobile service through the app. Never been an issue.

On top of all that, my car is worth more now than it was when I bought it. Everyone in my family that drives the car loves it. The car turns heads and generates questions on the daily for 3+ years now. My young daughter’s friends still lose their mind when she gets picked up in the Model 3. It’s almost like owning a supercar without the price tag or the inconvenience.

So I guess different people have different experiences. But this is the first car I’ve ever wanted to drive until it dies.

Oh, and FSD certainly IS NOT worth it. And I doubt it will be anytime soon. :)

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#162

Post by bhauer »

notJim wrote: post #144
rootusrootus wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If they could lose their obsession with self-driving and just focus on their incredible cars, they'd still make money. They may want to think about that strategy soon. Model 3 is starting to seem dated (not to mention Model S, which is ten years old). There are very competitive alternatives on the market now that have strengths where Tesla is weak, and which are not especially weak in the areas Tesla is strong.

In what sense is the Model 3 seeming dated? It's still one of the best electric cars on important measures like range and efficiency. It also has access to hands down the best charging network and is well loved by its owners, despite the well-documented problems.

Bjørn Nyland's review of the 2022 Model 3 Performance [1] confirms your view that the Model 3 is absolutely not dated. He tests scores of EVs and still considers the Model 3 the best balance of comfort, features, technology, performance, etc. If anybody here is seriously concerned that the Model 3 may be "dated," I suggest watching the video below.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdMwGJBFUd4

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#163

Post by dekhn »

ra7 wrote: post #119
lazyjones wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> doesn’t seem capable of solving it, How so? If humans can master driving with 2 eyes looking forward, why would a car with plenty of cameras in all directions not have sufficient sensory input to master it? The problem is the software, not the sensors.

Same reason airplanes don't fly by just flapping their wings like birds. There's not always a biological equivalent for solving a problem, especially when you take into account human brain's evolution over millions of years. Sometimes computers need more help.

It does seem reasonable, though, that if humans can solve safe driving with a brain mass (3 lbs) that computers wouldn't need that much more help. Put another way: every machine learning "expert" who has a kid is amazed to learn how simple unsupervised learning is and how few training examples are required.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#164

Post by rsynnott »

caymanjim wrote: post #89
highwaylights wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if we just, you know, walk a bit more instead? Or even cycle? I hear great things.

Clearly you live in a large city and find everything you want there.

This is a bit of an oddity of US urban planning. The US has maybe 10 big to very big cities, where people can get around on foot, and then a host of what are called cities in the US but are essentially just collections of shopping centres, office parks, industrial estates, vaguely near each other.

It doesn't work like that in most countries; small cities and towns are navigable on foot and public transport.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#165

Post by rafaelero »

learndeeply wrote: post #149
rafaelero wrote: post #35

It's fun to see everybody succumbing to scaling laws. We will only have FSD when we can run realtime inference with a huge model. No amount of creativity seems to overcome the fact that bigger is better. So, let's wait Moore's law do its job.

Unless you've demonstrated that FSD follows scaling laws, this comment is pretty meaningless.

I am not aware of any autoregressive transformer model that doesn't follow scaling laws. Tesla only needs to tokenize actions and images and voi la, self-driving capabilities. The problem, of course, is how you deploy such a big model so every car can run it locally.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#166

Post by throwaway123989 »

function_seven wrote: post #57
dreamcompiler wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because self-driving has a bunch of tricky edge cases and most of them will kill people. Problems with hundreds of important edge cases cannot be solved by simply throwing more training data at the problem; that's how you solve AI problems in a "dumb" manner, and it works for lots of problems (like recognizing dogs in images) -- but not for self-driving. To solve the self-driving problem we need "smart" A.I., which m…

I remain convinced that "real" self driving (as in: go ahead and sleep in the backseat) will never happen without changes to road infrastructure and possibly some sort of segregation between robot-driven cars and people-driven cars. Things like traffic signals that actively communicate their status to nearby robot cars (more than just a red lamp that can be occluded by weather, other vehicles, or mud on the camera le…

> I remain convinced that "real" self driving (as in: go ahead and sleep in the backseat) will never happen without changes to road infrastructure and possibly some sort of segregation between robot-driven cars and people-driven cars.

Yep, I talk to people working in traffic engineering, and their mindset is always building new road tech and road-side and cloud infra to support autonomous driving. They have no expectation of fully autonomous vehicle without road and infrastructure assistance.

And from historical perspective, the coming of automotive and the replacement of horse and other animal carts, are exactly facilitated by the road transformation; which has been the single largest scale infrastructure in human history.

It makes no sense that an even bigger transformation of the vehicle would require less drastic road transformation.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#167

Post by andsoitis »

gruturo wrote: post #51
akmarinov wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon in 2024: “by 2026 we’ll have actual, real teleportation” Elon in 2026: “by 2028 we’ll have FTL drives” Elon in 2028: “time machine!”

> Elon in 2028: “time machine!” Well, to be fair, he only has to hit _that_ goal - at which point he can go back in time at his leisure and fix all the others. And he could hit even the time machine goal as late as he wants, and it won't matter.

I think we can tell for certain that time travel will never be invented because if it were to happen, then logically we’d already be experiencing people visiting us from the future.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#168

Post by atombender »

practice9 wrote: post #107
atombender wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The situation outside the US is even worse for Tesla. There's a whole swathe of great EVs these days from VW (ID.3, ID.4), Renault (Megane, E-2008), Opel (Corsa-e), Volvo (C40, XC40), Ford (Mustang Mach-E), Jaguar (I-PACE), Polestar, BMW (i4, iX), Audi (e-Tron), Mercedes (EQS), Skoda (Enyaq), etc. The range of models is also much wider in terms of affordability. In Europe, we've reached the point where an EV is just…

And still Teslas sell better both in EU & China than all those EVs you mentioned

They sell better than any single car brand, sure, but much less as a fraction of the market. Their market share in Europe has been around 25% (compared to around 70% in the US). And it's falling. In March 2022, Tesla's market share was just 10.5%.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#170

Post by idop »

bhauer wrote: post #156
ifaxmycodetok8s wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> focus on their incredible cars They have terrible manufacturing quality. The screens melt in Arizona heat. Maybe the ride is cool and feels good, but the car itself is not incredible.

> The screens melt in Arizona heat. That's a very old talking point about the original Model S screens from ~2012. Do you have any recent justification for this claim?

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