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Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

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Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#161
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A comparison of Safedean Ammous to Deepak Chopra isn't useful IMO. Chopra does likely have views on economics but it's not the focus of his work. Ammous' work is about economics. Thus it appears you're merely trying to discredit one person by comparing them to another person whose views (on a totally different topic) are ridiculed/controversial (for potentially legitimate reasons). As to Lee Smolin .. he appears rath…

I wasn’t clear. I should’ve said it is equivalent to reading Deepak Chopra about quantum mechanics or string theory vs reading Lee Smolin. Not economics. Additionally, imagine why and how someone with an Econ degree who wasn’t very well known became incredibly famous. Enough for Taleb to write a foreword for him (although I suspect that was motivated by their ethnic common origins and less so by the rigor in the book…

>Enough for Taleb to write a foreword for him (although I suspect that was motivated by their ethnic common origins and less so by the rigor in the book)

Ironic since nowadays Taleb seems to enjoy trolling bitcoiners.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You say that trustworthy centralized systems are obviously better simply because even today there is no viable alternative to them, but you can clearly see how that is cause for all types of problems. Most times you don't know who exactly you're trusting, and sometimes you are perfectly aware that those trustworthy individuals/companies are anything but that, but you're left no choice but to """trust""" them and ho…

>I agree with you that trust is an open problem, but it's one that I think is getting solved automatically for free by ubiquitous surveillance, if we administer it sanely. The problem is, who watches the watchmen? And who watches the watchmen who watch the watchmen? And so on, because at some point you have to trust someone not to act maliciously. Not to mention that ubiquitous surveillance is a problem in itself, be…

* But I don't see a way to build and deploy websites in a decentralized manner (as in, you don´t have to host the servers yourself or to a centralized entity like AWS) that doesn't involve the blockchain.

Fixed

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't seem to be arguing in good faith. FWIW, N. Korea is my go-to example for how NOT to organize a society. I have no idea what to do about them, and I'm grateful that it's not my problem.

> Whether it's open or not is a matter of policy If you have to rely on some policy - it’s not censorship free. You propose we literally rely on a trusted third party to adjudicate things. AKA a literal censor? To make things censor free?

I enjoy a good discussion, but your rhetorical style is bad.

Above we're talking about "censorship-resistant" and here you've "moved the goalposts" to "censorship free".

What's your goal in this conversation? Do you want to fight or think?

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wasn’t clear. I should’ve said it is equivalent to reading Deepak Chopra about quantum mechanics or string theory vs reading Lee Smolin. Not economics. Additionally, imagine why and how someone with an Econ degree who wasn’t very well known became incredibly famous. Enough for Taleb to write a foreword for him (although I suspect that was motivated by their ethnic common origins and less so by the rigor in the book…

>Enough for Taleb to write a foreword for him (although I suspect that was motivated by their ethnic common origins and less so by the rigor in the book) Ironic since nowadays Taleb seems to enjoy trolling bitcoiners.

Yep. I don’t fully trust him either. I understand his point that there’s no cash flow etc but suddenly he turns around and says gold is not limited by this argument.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You say that trustworthy centralized systems are obviously better simply because even today there is no viable alternative to them, but you can clearly see how that is cause for all types of problems. Most times you don't know who exactly you're trusting, and sometimes you are perfectly aware that those trustworthy individuals/companies are anything but that, but you're left no choice but to """trust""" them and ho…

>I agree with you that trust is an open problem, but it's one that I think is getting solved automatically for free by ubiquitous surveillance, if we administer it sanely. The problem is, who watches the watchmen? And who watches the watchmen who watch the watchmen? And so on, because at some point you have to trust someone not to act maliciously. Not to mention that ubiquitous surveillance is a problem in itself, be…

First off, let me apologize for not writing a more in-depth reply, you've put a lot of thought and effort into this and I appreciate it. I'll try not to waste your time. :)

> The problem is, who watches the watchmen? And who watches the watchmen who watch the watchmen? And so on, because at some point you have to trust someone not to act maliciously.

I've thought about this and I think the likely answer is that the system has to be self-referential (a recursive function, if you will.) The infrastructure and personnel of the panopticon must be subject to the panopticon. E.g. members of the CCP must be subject to the Chinese "social credit" system.

It seems to me that if everyone is subject to the system then we still have a techno-tyranny but it's ruled by Mrs. Grundy. Otherwise, if there are privilege levels to the panopticon, you're going to wind up with masters and slaves.

> Not to mention that ubiquitous surveillance is a problem in itself, because again who can we trust to administer it sanely?

I don't think we can avoid solving that problem, I think ubiquitous surveillance is unavoidable due to economic factors (e.g. the fleet of self-driving cars is a de facto surveillance network. See also "sensing for wi-fi": your router can see you.) It's already happening, eh? Our cell phone track our locations, etc.

> It all goes back to the same root problem: trust, which is fundamentally incompatible with human nature. The best course of action, IMO, is to do away with it entirely by using trustless systems.

Here's where I strongly disagree. I don't accept the "it's human nature" argument against our higher values. I've lived in high-trust and low-trust enclaves and high-trust is just better. It's more efficient, but more importantly it's just fantastic! It feels great! It's just as natural if not more so to love and trust each other as it is to hate or fear each other. The best course of action, IMO, is to foster the higher human values and establish and grow trustworthy regimes within the chaotic larger systems and eventually establish a kind of techno-utopian Golden Age. :)

Well met!

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So basically, criminals that love the idea of hiding their illicit transactions from government oversight so they can traffic humans and drugs.

Or anyone that wants to travel without having their 5 or 10k in savings confiscated under asset forfeiture laws.

But why on earth would a legit person have anything seized?

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#167
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do I get this right? You have a rather pessimistic view of the world that leads you to believe that while such tax systems might be possible they allegedly haven't ever been observed in the real world. So you go on to infer that what hasn't been observed is not possible. I think it's a stretch to draw a parallel here to the unyielding character of physical laws. I assume the world has seen reasonable tax systems in t…

I’m not pessimistic. In fact, I definitely think something will disrupt the status quo and it is very corrupt. That’s not the point. I just don’t think your solutions are workable. If you’d told me about btc 10 years ago, I would’ve thought it was a radical attempt at a solution. Now I don’t think it’ll work with the benefit of hindsight. I just think anything in the future that disrupts tradFi will have equally craz…

> I just don’t think your solutions are workable.

Care to explain why?

I like to think I can be convinced by arguments.

> If you’d told me about btc 10 years ago, I would’ve thought it was a radical attempt at a solution.

But Bitcoin has kept working mostly the same way it started, right? Miners mine. People interested trade/speculate.

The thing about Bitcoin that changed over these years is what people think it is. Digital cash, nope. Micropayments, nope. Currency, nope. Store of value, could be. (I'm assuming volatility will decline in the long term if market capitalization approaches that of gold and as it gets adopted by millions more who don't speculate short term but just hold a few years to park some money and eventually exchange back to regular currency)

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#168
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The reason governments create inflation is to keep population poor and control them I guess? When I listened to the interview I didn't hear him say that. My view on this: governments simply cannot help increasing debt to spend more on whatever purpose they deem right at a certain time. It's simply the easiest way (least opposition from voters) for them to enact their programmes. The only other option (cutting other…

>If your car breaks down, you won't let it get fixed right now but next month because it's cheaper? Which car? The one I don't have because I'm saving to buy two next year? You're changing the example I gave into something else entirely. If you're saying that drastically reducing or eliminating the purchase of everything that is not absolutely essential to have won't be bad for the economy, or if it is, it won't be b…

> Which car? The one I don't have because I'm saving to buy two next year?

So eventually you'll have two ... and what will happen? Yes, some time your car will need repairs. Will you have the repair done months later because it'd be cheaper then? Highly unlikely.

> If you're saying that drastically reducing or eliminating the purchase of everything that is not absolutely essential to have won't be bad for the economy, or if it is, it won't be bad for society in the long term -- then say that.

I think people would - as they always have been doing it - still spend money on things that aren't absolutely necessary. If not for mere hedonistic pleasure then for status or whatever.

>>> If know I can use the same money to buy two cars next year instead of buying a car this year, I will not buy a car this year.

>>You sure?

>Yes. (I lived someplace where there was a ridiculous price markup for electronic goods. I needed a new phone and laptop but I refused to buy them because of the ridiculous prices. Then the currency crashed a year later and I immediately bought them by exchanging US dollars before they could markup the prices or pause sales. I ended up getting them for less than the US price incidentally. Otherwise I would have waited until the old ones were preventing me from doing essential tasks. This is same for cars.)

You ignored what I read about the buying power doubling over not one year but rather fourteen years ... you're writing about "currency crashing" which is something completely different from a gradual steady deflationary currency.

> "People consume because there's a limitless desire to consume" he says. And when Fridman calls him on it, he says yes well people economize due to constraints no matter what.

What's the point? Of course people try to find a balance between spending now and saving, nothing new here.

> If a transition from fiat to bitcoin standard starts happening, this is the path its going to take until the price stabilizes, no? People doubled their money in half a year in 2021 after all.

Yes. But as with most such developments, there's the dynamics that you see at first glance (adoption grows --> people are more confident Bitcoin will become even more valuable --> demand increases --> price increases --> ...) and there's lots more secondary dynamics that will also happen and dampen the obvious dynamic (price increases --> too expensive for some --> demand decreases --> dynamic equilibrium). There's surely more such secondary dynamics and they're important.

> EDIT: his odd comment that he is migrating from anarchism towards supporting benign dictatorships doesn't exact endear him either.

Well, I'm not a fan of dictatorships.

I don't think it's a very useful heuristic to discard all ideas of some person because one doesn't share/like one or a few of their positions. You'd have to discard the positions of almost every person on the planet then, right?

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#169
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not a Ponzi scheme. It’s a bubble—the belief is that prices will rise on the open market. You get tokens for putting money in the box. You can sell the tokens on an exchange later for cash. The cash comes from exchange participants, not box people. All the box people receive the tokens they expect. They don’t receive tokens from new box people. If it’s 1995 and Toys R Us is giving away Beanie Babies to the first…

Bitcoin is a bubble. Protocol that arbitratily rewards holding is what makes this Ponzi. Awarding tokens without efficient mechanism to destroy them causes inflation when speed of printing exceeds the speed of raising demand for them. And there's no way to correct it so inflation can turn into hyperinflation and run on bank and collapse of the whole scheme.

If bitcoin is just a bubble why is it still here after 'popping' like five times. And if the protocol that rewards the token holders is a Ponzi who is the Ponzi schemer?

It seems to me much more like the beanie baby thing.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#170
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin is a bubble. Protocol that arbitratily rewards holding is what makes this Ponzi. Awarding tokens without efficient mechanism to destroy them causes inflation when speed of printing exceeds the speed of raising demand for them. And there's no way to correct it so inflation can turn into hyperinflation and run on bank and collapse of the whole scheme.

If bitcoin is just a bubble why is it still here after 'popping' like five times. And if the protocol that rewards the token holders is a Ponzi who is the Ponzi schemer? It seems to me much more like the beanie baby thing.

> If bitcoin is just a bubble why is it still here after 'popping' like five times.

Because it is built to be infinitely reinflatable. Bitcoin bubble popping changes nothing about Bitcoin and human greed.

> And if the protocol that rewards the token holders is a Ponzi who is the Ponzi schemer?

People who create the protocol and set the rewards for themselves and others and cash out before the whole thing collapses.

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