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No-one knows what they are doing

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Re: No-one knows what they are doing

#161
post #130
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a better phrase is "everybody is winging it", because once you get good at something, then you tend to end up working on something that's at the edge of your current understanding, either through promotion or some sense of seniority in the industry. This isn't necessarily true for all jobs, but I think it's especially true in the software industry. I've been a CTO for 17 years, but I still feel like I'm wingi…

I'm going to go with "Not everything is designed, or planned. Sometimes the result is just the sum of a bunch of not necessarily coordinated decisions." Some people know a lot about what they are doing and are highly skilled. A concert pianist doesn't just walk up on stage and wing it. What I think you realize when you grow up is not every decision or outcome was deliberately thought out and coordinated. Sometimes th…

>Some people know a lot about what they are doing and are highly skilled. A concert pianist doesn't just walk up on stage and wing it.

If I may torture your example to defend the GP, concert pianists trying to improve will wing it during the steps leading up to the stage: negotiating with a venue, exploring new ways to practice, writing or choosing music pieces, and the all the other tasks unknown to this layman.

Re: No-one knows what they are doing

#163

This is a very comforting fiction to tell yourself when you’re faced with new and unfamiliar challenges. However, it’s not really true. Plenty of people within an industry or field know enough of what they’re doing because they’ve gone through it before and/or done all of the heavy research to prepare for these situations. I see the “nobody knows what they’re doing” fiction brought out as an easy antidote for imposto…

> The dark side of this mentality is that it creates the same situations whereby people believe their own intuitions are equal to professional scientific research. If you believe no one knows what they’re doing and all adults are just making it up as they go, why would you listen to experts instead of inserting your own opinions based on your Facebook research or some quip you saw online? Or folks on your own team? I…

This is common, and so is the 1-2 years experience dev churning out a ton of code. It gets work done and builds credibility, but then they make some glaring architectural mistake thats tough to rip out. PM can't see it, and eggs the dev on to keep delivering. Sometimes this is great, sometimes not. Depends on the company and the needs of the tech stack

Re: No-one knows what they are doing

#164

I’m going to let you in on a little secret. I spent almost a decade in public sector digitalisation in Denmark, and those politicians who look like they don’t know what they are doing in the media, well, they absolutely know what they are doing. Not only that, but they get advice from a bureaucracy full of well educated, really smart people, who also know what they are doing and have known so for decades. One of the…

I had very different experiences.

I worked for an acronym company in which the majority of "leaders" were smart, driven, capable, and despite mistakes that anyone can make, it would have not been fair to call them incompetent.

Some were incompetent, they got promoted into positions of responsibility and power when the company was scaling up so fast that they could not hire externally for those positions fast enough, and the internally vetting was weak. Then, they created their "network of power" within the company and they went on working incompetently for a few years. And then there were people like my former boss who are idiots with an academic title of some weight. Many such cases.

I then worked for a huge company, but not an acronym one, and at the Director/VP/C- level there are pockets of incompetence that are difficult to explain to others and to accept as possible.

CTOs that know little about technology, VPs that ask LinkedIn for surveys of employer retention to make the case that they were not losing more people in a year than, say, Google, but not accounting for the fact that we could not hire anyone for months while Google is so worried about false positives that they reject plenty of very viable candidates. The same slides presented at each all-hands meetings not to reinforce the vision or goals, but because they are too lazy to prepare new slides for an audience of 500 people, who looked at themselves asking: again?

One might say that they are competent at navigating company politics, which is like saying that the employee sleeping with their bosses are competent at getting promotions.

When I worked in academia (not in the US, if that matters), there were plenty of tenured professors that I would say were in the bottom 5 or 10% in terms of competence, research plans, management of students and postdocs, when compared to all postdocs in the same research area. Useless professionals that schemed their way through academia. And everybody knows that, but people who are inside have nothing to gain by exposing them, and people who leave academia they say, well, not my problem anymore, f them.

In my home country, the vast majority of politicians are incompetent outside of their core competence, which is getting votes.

I was under the impression, when I was younger, that I was wrong whenever I saw someone in a position of power, be it in the private sector or public office, who I saw as incompetence. How is it possible, I was asking myself, that somebody can get promoted, assigned huge responsibilities, be accepted by their peers when they are not at their level or at the level of competence required by their position. But it is very possible and in reality quite frequent.

Re: No-one knows what they are doing

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reading the parent comment about Denmark made me sad. I feel that in the UK we have smart, dedicated, well intentioned people just like Denmark, but if the NHS RiO system and Track-and-Trace are anything to go by we are plagued by massive corruption in the IT sector. This is the country of Alan Turing, Sir Tim Berners-Lee and Acorn RISC Machines. We need a new broom on public IT. I think we also need an outright ban…

FWIW, I've done some work in the UK public sector, including but not limited to the NHS. In my experience, any time the tech folks were in-house, the "doer class" (i.e. the boots-on-the-ground engineers) were some of the smartest, most motivated individuals I've worked with, who pretty consistently gave great output (for e.g., shipping products, system design, software architecture, balancing tech debt with delivery…

> In my experience, any time the tech folks were in-house, the "doer class" (i.e. the boots-on-the-ground engineers) were some of the smartest, most motivated individuals I've worked with

Lions led by donkeys as they used to say.

> I suspect we lack the political will/vision, and the requisite > leadership/management abilities

I'll differ a little here. I think we can have capable people at all levels and I am generally confident in the UK to come through in the end. We can do good leadership too. The reason the donkeys won't carry their load is that they're corrupt, undisciplined and disloyal. They're there to serve us but we forget who holds the stick.

> manner that doesn't just result in the next round of useless bungs > to politically connected mates.

Precisely. My guess is Nick Clegg and Priti Patel are the tip of a gargantuan iceberg. We're becoming a vassal state to the third richest "nation state" on Earth [1], because they have our politicians in their pockets.

[1] The combined wealth of Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Facebook now places them collectively above Russia as the number three "superpower". https://www.wired.co.uk/article/big-tech-geopolitics

> P.S.: Entirely off-topic -- do you compose your replies in Emacs or something like that? Or at least resort to using semantic line breaks? (https://sembr.org/) I ask because your comment looks fine on the website, but shows line breaks after sentences in an HN reader

Yes, Emacs, Well spotted. Yet another fingerprint to watch for! :)

Re: No-one knows what they are doing

#166
post #102

This is a very comforting fiction to tell yourself when you’re faced with new and unfamiliar challenges. However, it’s not really true. Plenty of people within an industry or field know enough of what they’re doing because they’ve gone through it before and/or done all of the heavy research to prepare for these situations. I see the “nobody knows what they’re doing” fiction brought out as an easy antidote for imposto…

Wrt to imposter syndrome - I often have this feeling, especially since I don't have any formal training in anything IT related. Recently a kid showed up at work to do an internship. He's studying computer science, all kinds of advanced algorithm stuff. He's utterly clueless at even beginning to find the cause of a simple bug in a php application. Incapable of interpreting a bug report, finding the class that serves a…

How long do you think it would take someone who has the learning capability to understand algorithms well, to read a bug report?

I find this sentiment very strange. I think you're right that jobs require a different kind of work than they may have previously encountered, I just don't think it's very difficult.

To put it another way, some developers are not smart enough to understand inductive proofs of algorithms not matter how much time they spend, the reverse is not true. Perhaps the individual you know likes to use a lot of academic vocabulary which gives such an appearence.

Re: No-one knows what they are doing

#167
post #149
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to go with "Not everything is designed, or planned. Sometimes the result is just the sum of a bunch of not necessarily coordinated decisions." Some people know a lot about what they are doing and are highly skilled. A concert pianist doesn't just walk up on stage and wing it. What I think you realize when you grow up is not every decision or outcome was deliberately thought out and coordinated. Sometimes th…

>A concert pianist doesn't just walk up on stage and wing it. Well, sometimes they have to. There is the famous example where a professional concert pianist realizes when the orchestra starts that she practiced the wrong piece. They happen to have been making a documentary, so we get to see her face as she realizes what is happening. And then she "wings it", and manages to play very well anyway. [0] https://www.youtu…

I was going to add something about improvisation and jazz. While it’s not planned out you wouldn’t describe them as “not knowing what they’re doing” nor are they just blindly mashing the keys.

They’re feeling their way through a dynamic situation guided by skill, experience and luck.

Re: No-one knows what they are doing

#168

This is a very comforting fiction to tell yourself when you’re faced with new and unfamiliar challenges. However, it’s not really true. Plenty of people within an industry or field know enough of what they’re doing because they’ve gone through it before and/or done all of the heavy research to prepare for these situations. I see the “nobody knows what they’re doing” fiction brought out as an easy antidote for imposto…

The article is specifically talking about starting and running a business, not imposter syndrome in general.

Re: No-one knows what they are doing

#169
I call this the hyper-competence fallacy: the mistaken idea that some group of people (usually the ones in charge) are consistently and significantly more likely to have their shit together than the median person. I've met extremely smart people, and extremely competent people, but they were only smart at certain things, and only sometimes. They still made lots of mistakes, even basic ones.

Some people are certainly better at their jobs than others, but that you shouldn't just assume that the people in charge are right without thinking things through and raising your hand to ask questions.

Much more common are the people who are typically incompetent, but who manage to make people think they know what they're doing. People want to believe somebody knows the way. It can be hard to spot incompetent leaders until it's too late, which is all the more reason to be politely skeptical of anybody who acts like they aren't playing catch up most of the time.

Re: No-one knows what they are doing

#170
post #130
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a better phrase is "everybody is winging it", because once you get good at something, then you tend to end up working on something that's at the edge of your current understanding, either through promotion or some sense of seniority in the industry. This isn't necessarily true for all jobs, but I think it's especially true in the software industry. I've been a CTO for 17 years, but I still feel like I'm wingi…

I'm going to go with "Not everything is designed, or planned. Sometimes the result is just the sum of a bunch of not necessarily coordinated decisions." Some people know a lot about what they are doing and are highly skilled. A concert pianist doesn't just walk up on stage and wing it. What I think you realize when you grow up is not every decision or outcome was deliberately thought out and coordinated. Sometimes th…

I like this take. A lot of times for an experienced team there are multiple solutions to a problem that will work and you can quickly start with the one that seems to best fit the circumstances... if circumstances change (and you'll notice if you've been doing it a while) then you can often (and with some hard work) transition to a different solution and still hit timeline (or immediately warn of the miss). If they team works together well, this happens quickly, if not seamlessly. If you don't have experience, just figuring out which way to start is a huge effort and changing direction even a larger struggle, and you're almost guaranteed to take longer, with higher risk, or worse product.

What I found making a few hundred sourdough loaves over the last 2 years, is that there is a recipe (or several), and you should follow it... but then unexpected things happen (changing starter/temp/gluten, humidity/hydration, forgot something or want to add something, different size loaf or tools/oven, not enough time, missed alarm) and the skill is in knowing quickly what to do and how to work with it to make things right. Rarely do I make what I consider a perfect loaf, because I don't make 100/day every day... but even though I often make one/two mistakes or changes, recovery is automatic and almost imperceptible in the final product.

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