Long Covid risk falls only slightly after vaccination, study shows • Hacker News Board

Re: Long Covid risk falls only slightly after vaccination, study shows

#161

Post by robonerd » Sat, May 28, 2022, 3:13 PM UTC

moistly wrote: post #148

robonerd wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the impression I get from the media. But if not for the media, I wouldn't know anybody was dying of anything. Nobody in any of my social circles have died in over 3 years. Going off what I've personally observed, I've seen no evidence of either a pandemic or the vaccines being dangerous. To be clear, I don't think it's all made up. Just that it's been blown up, completely out of proportion. All of it.

I suppose you must not count the news broadcasts from NYC showing refrigerator trucks filled with bodies stacked like cordwood as “personally observed” evidence of a pandemic.

No, that would be observed through media, not personally observed. Perhaps, re-read my comment?

Re: Long Covid risk falls only slightly after vaccination, study shows

#162

Post by robonerd » Sat, May 28, 2022, 3:14 PM UTC

Angostura wrote: post #159

robonerd wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't doubt the statistics. I simply don't think the statistics warrant the level of fear the media tells me I should be experiencing.

The media generally reported the numbers of hospitalisations and deaths and the pressure on hospitals pretty accurately. I leave it to you as to whether you think 1 million deaths over 2 years in the US is something you should have been fearful of, or whether it is pretty trivial

> The media generally reported the numbers [...] pretty accurately.

What part of "I don't doubt the statistics." did you not understand?

> "I leave it to you as to..."

Oh gee, thanks your permission to think for myself.

Re: Long Covid risk falls only slightly after vaccination, study shows

#163

Post by n3storm » Sat, May 28, 2022, 4:52 PM UTC

spookthesunset wrote: post #113

n3storm wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mean co-depending from anonymous internet opinions and advice is a form of mental illness? I agree. Have to see the mistmach though you point out. I just see some scientifically based decissions, recomendations and solutions to really well studied problems, and also see lot of people making noise since the 70s about vax, chemtrails, MMS, Chakras, ivervectine, himalaian salt, bach flowers, ozone, and whatever l…

You are putting way more faith into some "experts" who have a very strong incentive to carry the narrative they are carrying. It isn't really a conspiracy theory when what comes out of their mouth doesn't match the data coming from their own damn public health dashboards. You don't need to be a credentialed "expert" to start asking basic questions about that.

I call experts to people that have devoted their education and life to study and search for solutions, without quotes.

You call experts to people that some day have a health, work or family issue, went to see several gurus, realised they can create their own discourse on the issue and start selling their book.

Re: Long Covid risk falls only slightly after vaccination, study shows

#164

Post by native_samples » Sat, May 28, 2022, 6:43 PM UTC

smt88 wrote: post #144

johndfsgdgdfg wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is we've set-up asymmetric incentive structure. Say, there are some uncertainties regarding the risk and aftermath of COVID. If you genuinely underestimate the risk, then you are a pro-grandma killer and one of the worst human beings in the world. But if you overplay the risk, then you are an amazing human being whose only flaw is caring too much about human lives. Unfortunately this becomes another 'The…

> If you genuinely underestimate the risk, then you are a pro-grandma killer and one of the worst human beings in the world. I totally disagree with this. When omicron started spreading, a lot of scientists jumped to the conclusion that it was less lethal than previous variants. They were happy to share positive-sounding news, regardless of whether they turned out to be wrong. At the beginning, the evidence (from Sou…

Huh, that's the opposite of how I remember it. Where on earth did you see that?

I couldn't see my family for Christmas this year because they freaked out over Omicron and insisted that me and my girlfriend would have to quarantine for 10 days before being able to visit them. This was driven entirely by "scientists" jumping to conclusions that Omicron would be as deadly as Delta but much more infectious and demanding more lockdowns, quarantines etc. They had no scientific basis for this doom-mongering, which appeared to be driven purely by some strange ideological desire for more restrictions.

I told family at the time - this is crazy. All the evidence about Omicron says it's a mild cold. There is no evidence pointing to any other conclusion. The people who discovered it in South Africa are communicating clearly that there's no crisis. Public health scientists are lying, again, because they're claiming there's no data when I was reading about that supposedly non-existent data in the press just yesterday and so you shouldn't listen.

Well, they listened to the "scientists" and not me. For a few weeks, at least. February comes around, nothing about the virus has changed but they suddenly realize that it causes a mild cold and nobody cares. The Queen gets it aged 95 and it's on the front pages for about half a day. She doesn't even stop working. Then they want us to visit so we can do the celebrations we didn't do at Christmas.

So the scores are:

    South African doctors: 1
    native_samples: 1
    Public health: -a million, again.

The people from South Africa turned out to be completely correct.

Re: Long Covid risk falls only slightly after vaccination, study shows

#165

Post by toolz » Sat, May 28, 2022, 7:05 PM UTC

seizethegdgap wrote: post #158

toolz wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you mean the neighboring countries that objectively had similar (or even lower) restrictions than sweden? The countries like norway, finland and denmark that got labeled as "strict lockdown" countries only because it was politically expendient? You mean those neighbors? https://i.imgur.com/bjWZS81.png https://ourworldindata.org/covid-stringency-index oh and here are some excess deaths you can compare across norway sw…

Your stringency argument falls flat on its face when the source for your argument skips the first 24 months of the pandemic. That same timeframe was when the variants were much more lethal, and the vaccine didn't exist for the first 12 months. Your excess deaths chart shows Sweden's rising by 5,000 people from 2019 to 2020, while Norway and Denmark's fell. This image ( https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S01…

Ah, it's been a while since I looked at that chart, didn't realize they had pruned the data to 2022, which is _not_ how long the stringency index measured, which you would know if you had spent any time researching this category study as the oxford stringency index is by _far_ the most cited and utilized index of covid policy.

If you actually care about the subject feel free to look it up yourself, don't take my word for it as the measurements are all open source on github, including the methodology used to calculate the index.

Re: Long Covid risk falls only slightly after vaccination, study shows

#166

Post by swayvil » Sat, May 28, 2022, 11:25 PM UTC

micromacrofoot wrote: post #104

hda111 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What medications cause anxiety and depression?

In the past it's been anything from acne medications to birth control and even anti-depressants. Depression isn't an unusual side-effect at all.

Christ, you'd think that people might get the message that there's something deeply wrong when you get a feeling like that.

It's a testament to the power of post-structuralism or something.

Re: Long Covid risk falls only slightly after vaccination, study shows

#167

Post by [deleted] » Sun, May 29, 2022, 11:28 AM UTC

SemanticStrengh wrote: post #32

I am wondering how much immune "budget" do humans have for vaccines? This topic is left unadressed and is extremely worrying, being an existential risk. Basically, the body has a limited amount of unspecialized naive T cells in its lifetime, mostly located/modulated in the thymus gland, which involute quickly with age. I suppose that 1) vaccines increase the rate of specialisation of naive T cells to mature t cells (…

[deleted]

Re: Long Covid risk falls only slightly after vaccination, study shows

#168

Post by mrtesthah » Sun, May 29, 2022, 5:34 PM UTC

moistly wrote: post #149

mrtesthah wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Omicron Deaths in U.S. Exceed Delta’s Peak as Covid-19 Optimism Rises in Europe" https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-deaths-in-u-s-exceed-de...

Omicron is less deadly on an individual basis by, IIRC, about 60%; it causes more deaths on a population basis because it infects vastly more people.

Sure, but in the context of where excess deaths come from, it's the total number of deaths we're interested in.

Re: Long Covid risk falls only slightly after vaccination, study shows

#169

Post by smt88 » Sun, May 29, 2022, 9:51 PM UTC

swayvil wrote: post #166

micromacrofoot wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the past it's been anything from acne medications to birth control and even anti-depressants. Depression isn't an unusual side-effect at all.

Christ, you'd think that people might get the message that there's something deeply wrong when you get a feeling like that. It's a testament to the power of post-structuralism or something.

> there's something deeply wrong when you get a feeling like that

Everyone knows that feeling depressed is deeply wrong.

Medications that can cause depression are often prescribed for serious illnesses, like debilitating mental illness. They don't always cause depression, and the small risk of temporary, treatable depression is determined by the doctor and patient to exceed the risk of the condition that's being treated.

Re: Long Covid risk falls only slightly after vaccination, study shows

#170

Post by antiterra » Thu, Jun 09, 2022, 3:22 PM UTC

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #147

SemanticStrengh wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I suspect that my opinion is just as much gibberish as yours clearly is, but with more self-awareness. OK thank you layman for your ad-hominem, I have extensive expertise in medecine and pharmacology and have extensively studied the thymus, spleen, associated peptides and immune and aging biomarkers, so what seems to you as gibberish is actual valid statements or for a few ones, very reasonable and necessary to be…

> I have extensive expertise in medecine and pharmacology a) not present in your comment history - clearly that's not your focus area - and b) not even spelled correctly and c) I do not believe you > and have extensively studied the thymus, spleen, associated peptides Uh uh. Heart, liver and associated oligosaccharides. Gotcha. (this is equally irrelevant gibberish when talking about immune system responses) > I do n…

12 days is ages ago, but:

While we should always question declarations of expertise without evidence, YCombinator is a place of curiosity and immediately dismissing someone's consideration as gibberish is counter-productive and rude.

> a) not present in your comment history - clearly that's not your focus area - and b) not even spelled correctly and c) I do not believe you

I disagree, there's a significant amount of detailed information in the comment history that suggests this (although I am not vouching for accuracy of any of it.)

> > and have extensively studied the thymus, spleen, associated peptides > Uh uh. Heart, liver and associated oligosaccharides. Gotcha. (this is equally irrelevant gibberish when talking about immune system responses)

Wrong. You didn't even do a web search to check.

The thymus produces immune cells. The spleen generates lymphocytes in response to foreign micro-organisms/viruses. Spleen peptides are used for enhancing immune function after radiation therapy and chemotherapy.

> Yeah, you do say that, you say "I am wondering how much immune "budget" do humans have for vaccines?"

No. Wondering about an immune budget for vaccines does preclude the possibility an immune budget applies to natural immunity.