161–170 of 774 posts
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Over a long enough time frame the stock market and even the whole economy behaves like a pyramid scheme as it is dependent on new generations to be more people than the previous one.
What about life becoming more efficient?
I don't think we need the latest Cloud/AI/ML/Crypto/Web3.0 bullshit to spin up fuckedcompany.com again. I remember thinking in ~2015 going to conferences that this shit was never going to last. Then around 2018 driving (sitting) on 101 listening to advertisements for "C3 IoT AI" on NPR thinking, could a company jam more meaningless buzzwords into a single company name? For shits, looked up their stock just and its do…
Any time I ask on some financial forum about moving a chunk of investments to cash I get told that would be stupid, don't try to time the market, and just keep buying. I would have saved myself a bunch of losses if I had done it when I was thinking about it.
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Reduction in Force == layoffs
Thanks, I wish people could speak clearly.
A lot of these companies have very reasonable P/E ratios now. Microsoft is sitting at around 27, Apple 25, and Facebook 15. None of those strike me as "inflated". Those are normal values for the stock market (20-25). Are investors just panicking?
They make insane amounts of money and continue growing at a steady pace. Apart from Facebook, they have all shown the capability to expand into other verticals and successfully end up as major player on a consistent basis. This sets a high ceiling on growth despite being country sized already.
To me, most other big tech companies are inflated by the promise of ending up like these money printers and not because they have the money to show it. Uber, Doordash, Zillow, Airbnb, Netflix all have valuations that are completely disconnected with an 'average case outcome '. Don't even get me started on literal gambles like Lucid or Rivian which have 100b valuations. Stripe and Elon Musk Inc. might be the only recent ones to show successful ability to scale horizontally.
At the end of the day, the real way to make money is to provide real tangible value over the long term. Making money on the margins for someone else's labor is all well and good, but that runs into hard scaling limits fast. Even Google and Facebook know that the content creators are their value, and the customers are advertisers.
Nvidia, Unity, Cloudflare and similar companies with products with tangible value will survive most downturns. Non-ads based companies that extract value on the margin will struggle in this bear market.
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Central banks have one hammer really: interest rates. Everything is a nail.
QE as well. I just don't see why they can't put conditions on some of their lending to focus the intent of the money.
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What about life becoming more efficient?
There is a limit, growth can't continue forever (especially the exponential growth we've been seeing). We've got to level off at some point
I think VCs' expectations misalign with reality. They are the ones incentivising infinite growth.
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This is also a central banking fail in so far that there's that much liquidity in the market that can't find a productive outlet. There's a lot of money, but also not enough concentrated in one spot to do really useful ventures like large infrastructure projects. So instead the money is distorting everything. Imagine if lending was less cheap for home owners but it was still cheap for governments or really large comp…
The money can find a productive outlet, it’s just that for the last 5 years or so, speculative investments (that weren’t productive) had a much higher rate of return. Which is too bad as the productive investments like building a solar power plant really benefitted from the low interest rates that drove the non-productive speculative bubble. non-productive Speculative investments tend to get punished at the end of th…
I work for non-tech generating 100million+ in revenue. Cushy job, fully remote, good pay and full autonomy with flexible hours working as an IC. I recently talked to a startup, similar pay, culture would be a better fit since it was mostly techies and I'm a nerd by nature.....but things just got awkward as soon as I asked about their revenue....they were bleeding money and I was told they were being acquired by a big…
If bleeding money scares you, then a startup is probably not the right fit, a huge number of startups fail.
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This is also a central banking fail in so far that there's that much liquidity in the market that can't find a productive outlet. There's a lot of money, but also not enough concentrated in one spot to do really useful ventures like large infrastructure projects. So instead the money is distorting everything. Imagine if lending was less cheap for home owners but it was still cheap for governments or really large comp…
Central banks have one hammer really: interest rates. Everything is a nail.