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Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

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Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#161

Post by Mountain_Skies »

KptMarchewa wrote: post #105
luciusdomitius wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, externalities must indeed be settled. However, leaded petrol (same chap also invented freon (!) btw - talk about being unlucky :D) cannot really be handled by a market as it is in its nature a bodily harm and there is the criminal code for that. Freon would be a much more interesting example as it hurts societies in the long-term and not individuals in the short.

Unfortunately governments can also fail in settling externalities. For example, making it hard to extract oil domestically only shifts production to other countries, which are often bad authoritarian states. Better way is to tax consumption, but that has never been popular in US.

I my state, local sales taxes (which are a consumption tax) are hugely popular, especially in conservative areas. The reason is simple: voters know upfront what the taxes going to be used for (usually education related capital expenses and road improvements), when the tax will expire, and that it will only be used in the county instead of being shipped off somewhere else to be administered and a portion skimmed off. Each time they come up for renewal, they usually get passed by a large margin. So maybe the problem isn't that people don't like consumption taxes but that they don't like taxes disappearing into a black hole with dubious or non-existent benefits or even used to create negative value to the community.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#162

Post by mypastself »

BurningFrog wrote: post #109
ivan_gammel wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess you missed the moment between 1950-2020s when our civilization transitioned from industrial to information society thanks to massive progress in IT. Super-optimistic approach to software design in that period of time has led us to the destructive mess of the social networks, cyberwarfare and buggy MCAS in Boeing 737 Max. EDIT: I also forgot to mention globalization, where optimism resulted in the supply chain…

The 737 Max tragedy wss mainly caused by regulatory constrains on design.

I’m interested in a source for this.

Based on online news reports and a couple of documentaries on the topic I’ve watched (Frontline, Netflix), the regulatory constraints mainly entailed having new airplane designs go through more extensive scrutiny, which would mean greater expenditures for the company.

In order to avoid this (and therefore stay competitive with Airbus), Boeing reported the MCAS program as merely a minor upgrade of the existing system, and subsequently failed to train pilots in its use properly.

If this is what you’re referring to, I feel like “mainly caused by regulatory contraints on design” is a reductive and slightly misleading take. Or is there some other information to support your claim?

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#163

Post by [deleted] »

fallingfrog wrote: post #156
I_DRINK_KOOLAID wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We don't have "safe spaces in colleges". I graduated from college recently and never witnessed any such thing. How long has it been since you've set foot on a college campus? Just the fact that there are no brawls, no animosity or electricity in the air means that the whole campus is a safe space. Ever since the stone age putting a bunch of young people together in an enclosed space meant huge social volatility and…

"Just the fact that there are no brawls, no animosity or electricity in the air..." This is deranged. You want students to be starting fistfights on campus? That's what counts as dialogue to you? The rest of what you wrote is essentially word salad, and not cogent enough to warrant a response. I'm directly telling you right now that you have no idea what you're talking about, and you are in total ignorance. Think of…

[deleted]

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#164

Post by I_DRINK_KOOLAID »

fallingfrog wrote: post #156
I_DRINK_KOOLAID wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We don't have "safe spaces in colleges". I graduated from college recently and never witnessed any such thing. How long has it been since you've set foot on a college campus? Just the fact that there are no brawls, no animosity or electricity in the air means that the whole campus is a safe space. Ever since the stone age putting a bunch of young people together in an enclosed space meant huge social volatility and…

"Just the fact that there are no brawls, no animosity or electricity in the air..." This is deranged. You want students to be starting fistfights on campus? That's what counts as dialogue to you? The rest of what you wrote is essentially word salad, and not cogent enough to warrant a response. I'm directly telling you right now that you have no idea what you're talking about, and you are in total ignorance. Think of…

> I'm telling you so, as a fact, not an opinion.

Facts are that if you look at places that are experiencing growth at 9% or 10% YoY in real terms, meaning after adjusting for inflation, they are all places which are pretty socially volatile and have a very fast turnover of humans.

Nigeria, Ethiopia, Namibia, Vietnam, Philippines, Honduras...

In the US , the hotspots for unpredictability , high social volatility and fast turnover due to dropouts and new arrivals were colleges.

Those kept propelling US growth after such phenomenons had long subdued in the American society at large.

Colleges just aren't as vibrant anymore, so as the last bastion of vibrant culture fell, so did US growth.

And besides, you don't have to be watching FNC to see how the US transitioned from being a country of go-getters to being afraid of losing all the health and wealth accumulated up to now due to the efforts of the aforementioned go-getters.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#165

Post by twiddling »

MrMan wrote: post #112
sidewndr46 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you suggesting that the only way to avoid anthropogenic climate change is a massive die off humans?

This is the new HN shrug - just go about your business and maybe the oligarchs will genocide all the non-rationlists

at least we'll go to Mars!

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#166

Post by juve1996 »

10amxn10 wrote: post #21
axiomsEnd wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we want to fight global warming, if we have rather big industries and local incentives pushing in favor of fossil fuels..?

I personally see a global tyranical system (quoting the GP) as a far bigger threat than climate change doom scenarios. At least during our lifetimes. Only time will tell.

Climate change will be an exacerbating factor for the rise of tyranny. if the claims of climate change come true that will mean a lot of people needing to fight for basic resources leading to strongmen and tyranny.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#167

Post by White_Wolf »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #139
White_Wolf wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd have to implement a coeficient based on the average time needed to aquire said skill for a person with average IQ and EQ, performance, number of base skills required to learn said skill, so on. This formula would be a bit more complex than this but you get the jist of it. It wouldn't be impossible to quantify it for all but edge cases.

Except those edge cases would likely destroy the whole system. The value of an hour of labor isn’t based on the time it took to acquire the skill, it’s based on the value of the good or service produced to society. Whether it takes a normal person 4 years to acquire that skill, or a genius 4 days, the value is what it’s worth to other people. That value not only has a very wide range, but also it’s constantly fluctua…

>The value of an hour of labor isn’t based on the time it took to acquire the skill, it’s based on the value of the good or service produced to society

I'd think, the reason that a surgeon is paid more than a garbage disposal person is the ammount of time, brain power and skill it takes to learn/master.

In the grand scheme of things, number wise, if the garbage disposal guys are gone (or just refuse to work for 1 year), a lot more people will be sick and die. In todays world, we can't do without them. Why would a surgeon be paid more if he only saves 10000 lives during his lifetime when cleaners keep millions safe from disease, rat infestations, etc? How about those guys that work at water purification plants that keep cities running and that surgeon clean?

I'm not bashing surgeons here. I'm one of the guys that made it through a poped apedix thanks to a surgeon that realized what was going on and did the surgery within 1h of me collapsing.

I'm questioning the concept of rewarding labour based on "value to society". IMHO, that works only for basic needs and services. Food, shelter, security, etc. Anything above that... not so much or at best, debatable.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#168

Post by glitchc »

eggsmediumrare wrote: post #119
glitchc wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, the US military might is reliant on a resource it does not actually produce locally (in sufficient quantities). If the govt. did not exert control over other sources, it would quickly lose access, rendering much of the heavy machinery useless. The Navy is the most vulnerable to an oil shortage.

The US is an energy exporter now.

All crude is not created equal. Jet fuel for instance is dominantly refined from light sweet crude, for which the Middle East is the best source. While one can refine shale oil into jet fuel, the process is more complicated and expensive. It is worth noting that US does refine most of its own jet fuel within the country, and it’s only raw crude that it needs to buy.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#169

Post by fallingfrog »

I_DRINK_KOOLAID wrote: post #164
fallingfrog wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Just the fact that there are no brawls, no animosity or electricity in the air..." This is deranged. You want students to be starting fistfights on campus? That's what counts as dialogue to you? The rest of what you wrote is essentially word salad, and not cogent enough to warrant a response. I'm directly telling you right now that you have no idea what you're talking about, and you are in total ignorance. Think of…

> I'm telling you so, as a fact, not an opinion. Facts are that if you look at places that are experiencing growth at 9% or 10% YoY in real terms, meaning after adjusting for inflation, they are all places which are pretty socially volatile and have a very fast turnover of humans. Nigeria, Ethiopia, Namibia, Vietnam, Philippines, Honduras... In the US , the hotspots for unpredictability , high social volatility and f…

I wish you would try listening for a change. You might learn something. Countries like Ethiopia are catching up from being way behind using imported technology, of course they're growing fast. Their population also has recently exploded, which accounts for much of the growth. How do you not see this?

"how the US transitioned from being a country of go-getters to being afraid of losing.."

This is just pure contempt and ignorance. It's all about your feelings of superiority and your psychological need to justify those feelings. How do you lack this self awareness? You're flat out wrong about young people and their willingness to take risks. I wish you would get your head out of your ass and turn off the TV and go outside.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#170

Post by galangalalgol »

luciusdomitius wrote: post #138
SkyMarshal wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technically the US is a “high trust” society. Meaning we have institutions like rule of law, independent courts, and elections that are trusted by society to facilitate commercial and legal relations between people, rather than personal relationships and kinships. Yes we complain a lot and criticize the government and don’t fully trust our polarized politicians, but a real “low trust” society is a far cry from what w…

This might have been true 10 years ago, but now (just from the wiki examples): 1. More than 40% in US do not believe Biden legitimately won election – poll - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/05/america-bide... 2. US tax system is not voluntary, but extremely coercive - the IRS is legendary in its blood-houndness and the US is probably the only country in the world that taxes non-resident citizens. 3. Abor…

Is this getting downvotes because it doesn't speak to or support the question of the level of trust in the US government? Or is it getting downvotes because the politics of the poster are evident, and people are disagreeing with those politics? I am pretty sure the poster and I would disagree very strongly and on many things, but this post would seem to relate directly on the matter discussed. We do have a decreasing level of trust in our government, and it is beginning to have the sorts of impacts mentioned in the wiki article. Our relatively high standard of living compared to those other low trust countries hides them to some degree by making uprisings less inviting.
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