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Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

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Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#161

Post by GekkePrutser »

somewhereoutth wrote: post #129
spookthesunset wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably a similar risk profile to that of every other common respiratory virus…

Like measles? Smallpox? They are respiratory viruses too

Measles is a good comparison IMO. It's an extremely contagious virus (even more so than Omicron covid) and can have some serious illness in a small percentage of people. Very similar to covid statistically.

Yet we don't lock down at the first sign of a measles outbreak. Where I'm from almost everyone got vaccinated and a lot of kids had it anyway. The one big difference is that an infection seems to convey pretty much lifelong protection.

Smallpox is a different thing, very serious but not so contagious so it was easy to stamp out.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#162

Post by GekkePrutser »

somewhereoutth wrote: post #131
spookthesunset wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What was the alternative?

Better ventilation of indoor spaces, more utilisation of outdoor spaces, better sick pay provision, more WFH, etc, etc - essentially the complete mobilisation of society to defeat COVID, whatever it took. A dress rehearsal for climate change.

I don't think covid was bad enough to warrant complete mobilisation of society. Climate change yes.

If anything it hurt our fight against climate change. There were some short-term benefits like reduced travel but overall it has increased inflation a lot due to the massive costs of the lockdowns. We're all a bit poorer and guess what, poor people have less to spend on climate-positive products and tend to go for the cheaper but worse options.

We should pick our battles for the ones that count.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#163

Post by GekkePrutser »

robonerd wrote: post #57
GekkePrutser wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is a scenario where we have to work from home a couple of times a year for a few days due to a mild infection really such a nightmare? Considering the constant lockdowns we'll need to prevent it, that sounds a lot worse tbh. Of course it's possible a dangerous strain will emerge but I think it's worth the risk.

> work from home That this is possible at all for you is a privilege many do not enjoy.

No, but we were talking of a nightmare to society. In western societies people not able to work from home are a minority.

Most of these would not be able to work during the lockdowns either so either way it works out the same, not a positive in favour of lockdowns.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#164

Post by rdtwo »

tyng wrote: post #118
spookthesunset wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I'm the parent I wouldn't want my kids to get COVID The risks of missing education, physical activity and socialization are far greater for children than Covid. We have two years of data to show this.

It's not a permanent lockdown... just for a few weeks (so far)

I’ve found it super tough to do online school with a small child. For the under 10 kids they need a lot of supervision and the online school becomes your day job. So if both parents are trapped at home trying to work it’s hell

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#165

Post by briHass »

3qz wrote: post #83
cryptica wrote: post #62

This shows the fragility of big cities. People who live in a big city are highly dependent on the government and the economy. Cities don't produce much food themselves so it has to be brought in from other parts of the country every day. Shanghai has 24 million people; it's difficult to conceptualize how much food is required to sustain so many people. I find big cities terrifying. What if there is a food shortage or…

Some may call this “the industrial revolution and it’s consequences”… These people are entirely dependent on technology and social structures that they have no control over. Unfortunately, that’s true for everyone in the countryside too unless they want to live with Stone Age farming tools. Could you sustain yourself if your town had to recreate the metal supply chain? Energy? Probably not. I don’t think you’re much…

The difference would be how much of a shock to the system would result in catastrophic effects to you/your family. A hypothetical major 2-week disruption to supply lines and public infrastructure looks pretty different if you are in the country, with well/septic, on a plot of land with a well-stocked fridge/cellar vs. a small downtown apartment with maybe a day or two's worth of supplies and the strong possibility of nearby violence from those that might not be even that prepared.

In a few areas of the US, we have Old-order Amish who make a point of trying to do without dependencies on most modern infrastructure. They always live rural, on farms, certainly not by accident.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#166

Post by Cerium »

tablespoon wrote: post #59
Cerium wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currently you can't get out unless you have a business, student visa or permanent residence permit. The word is that tourist visa holders will be denied exit. Getting in is also very arduous.

> Currently you can't get out unless you have a business, student visa or permanent residence permit. The word is that tourist visa holders will be denied exit. Getting in is also very arduous. As of when? I know some people who left China in December on a tourist visa to another country.

In February or March my mother in law asked her local office which replied they would not ensure her exit permission.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#167

Post by curmudgeon22 »

stock_toaster wrote: post #88
curmudgeon22 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are rates per 100,000 for vaccinated, boosted and unvaccinated from Ontario (population 14 million). I don't see much benefit against infection to those with 2 or 3 mRNA doses. The most recent datapoints (7 day average): - Not fully vaccinated: 14.86 cases per 100,000 people - Fully vaccinated: 17.39 cases per 100,000 people - Vaccinated with booster: 26.89 cases per 100,000 people https://covid-19.ontario.ca/d…

For infection rates, perhaps there is a bit of a confounding factor of vaccinated people being less careful (eg unmasking) due to confidence in their vaccination status? The deaths by vaccination status stats on that same page are pretty interesting.

My thought on the most likely confounding factors is both requirement and proclivity to get tested. Vaccinated/boosted folk are more likely to be in situations requiring testing, thus finding more mild or asymptomatic cases. I'm not sure on who is more likely to get tested of their own volition for mild symptoms and could see arguments both ways, but could see it being a factor.

Agreed, the deaths by vaccination status shows a stronger benefit, particularly with age.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#169

Post by NicoJuicy »

senectus1 wrote: post #153
NicoJuicy wrote: post #80

If you're wondering. Yes, it's the same variant. Yes, they have a working vaccine ( just not a RMNA one), but with a ( bit) lower efficiency and the older population is less vaccinated. China is currently in the weak position of not being able to contain a super contagious COVID virus, as they have propaganda'd their policy as superior to the western one for the last years. Not implementing zero COVID policy would me…

>Yes, they have a working vaccine Sinovax? Not sure I'd class that as a working vaccine.

3 doses of Sinovax = 2 doses of RMNA according to what I saw here.

It doesn't have to be the best to be considered a working vaccine.

Re: Trapped in lockdown, Shanghai residents turn to WeChat groups for food

#170

Post by drno123 »

rdtwo wrote: post #92
blablablub wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current omicron cases are already overloading the health system in Shanghai. and that are only about 5000 cases.

Is it? Or all all the false positives from over testing creating a huge problem?

If you have a test with 0.1% false positive rate, and you test 25Mil people on a weekly basis, every week you get 25.000 false positives, or, as they say, “asymptomatic cases”.
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