Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status • Hacker News Board

Re: Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status

#161

Post by einpoklum » Mon, Feb 28, 2022, 10:55 PM UTC

Adverblessly wrote: post #136

hef19898 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's one of the lessons, isn't it? First the West reneged on the Nuclear deal with Iran, now Russia invaded Ukraine. All the while North Korea is just simply left alone.

Could you explain what you mean when you mention that "First the West reneged on the Nuclear deal with Iran"? I understand why the current situation would encourage Iran to pursue nuclear weaponry, but the agreement as far as I know did not include any defensive pact, so Iran didn't agree to forsake development of nuclear weaponry under the promise of protection from the west (which is now proving to be ineffective),…

> it promised to forsake nuclear weaponry in order to be allowed to pursue peaceful nuclear technology.

Nope. The JCPOA agreement acknowledged (i.e. the US, the European signatories etc acknowledged) that Iran did _not_ have a nuclear weapons program. The JCPOA put in place stronger safeguards to ensure that remains the case.

Re: Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status

#162

Post by godmode2019 » Tue, Mar 01, 2022, 12:26 AM UTC

b112 wrote: post #40

hef19898 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a country not planning to occupy, the US lead coalition sure stayed for quite some time.

I think maybe parent is maybe combining info from the first and second invasion into one.

The 2003 war lasted 1 month, 1 week and 4 days (Wikipedia)

The invasion tactic was shock and awe.

They didn't plan to occupy, they thought it would be easier to setup a puppet government than it was. They couldn't leave until Iraq was in a state to balance Iran's regional influence.

USA wanted to use Iraq for a oil/gas pipeline to Europe from Saudi/Qatar. They realised that was not possible due to the USA lack of state building abilities. So they turned their attention on Syria for the pipeline.

Jordan agreed but Syria was a under the Russian sphere of influence, so they needed to topple this government for the pipeline.

The pipeline would have challenged Russian oil/gas monopoly in Europe.

Re: Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status

#163

Post by godmode2019 » Tue, Mar 01, 2022, 12:36 AM UTC

andy_ppp wrote: post #72

godmode2019 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your take is very surface level, its like you are looking for faults. Assaults on massive countries are not won overnight. USA had a quick win of a month in Iraq by using shock and awe. Blowing everything up and killing any civilian who got in the way. This created a massive insurgency, which was fine because they didn't plan on occupying only destabilising. Russia plans on occupying, to reduce NATOs ability to out f…

How does one outflank a country with thousands of nuclear weapons?

Many countries have nuclear weapons, doesn't you stop wanting to have basic strategic advantages on your side.

Why have a navy if you have nukes, why build tanks when you already have nukes, why not let your adversary encircle you if you have nukes.

Nukes are typically tactical weapons, you will still have a deal with a ground force once all the nukes have been used.

Re: Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status

#164

Post by ascold » Tue, Mar 01, 2022, 5:24 AM UTC

bigodbiel wrote: post #63

trompetenaccoun wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That depends entirely - what was the goal of this attack in the first place? Did he think he could quickly take Ukraine and the West wouldn't interfere? It's possible. His soldiers look unmotivated, even unprepared though. Maybe it's part of a larger strategy. We might see more crisis popping up soon.

Liberate the country (well half the country up til Dniepr river).

Liberate from who? We have a russian-speaking president of Jewish origin who is voted by 73% of the population, most of them from the russian-speaking South East. All of the ultra right wing nationalist parties could not even get into the Parliament. Putin calls nazis everyone who is against his plans to fulfill his dreams about rebuilding the empire. Today (Feb 28) he was bombing the russian-speaking cities, the population he said he wants to free from some imaginary "nazis".

Re: Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status

#165

Post by antpls » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 11:37 AM UTC

https://www.nhc.no/en/five-facts-about-the-referendum-in-bel... :

"The amendments to this article will make it sound as follows: The Republic of Belarus excludes military aggression from its territory against other states."

Either Lukashenko will tell Putin to remove Russian troops from Belarus, or Lukashenko is breaking the new constitution of his own country.