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$130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

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Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#161

Post by belval »

elif wrote: post #137
streamofdigits wrote: post #116

There is no much point in arguing with a cult. This phenomenon will have to work its way through the susceptible demographic, meaning that the large majority of "speculators" will have transferred their disposable wealth to a minority of shrewd operators. The masses will subsequently be "seasoned", or immunized and will no longer participate, at best disappointed, disgusted and mildly embarrassed, at worst suffering…

better than the cult of USD. how's that doing this year? or last year? or the year before? or ever? does it even have a THEORETICAL path to value? I'll take my currently existing and computationally reinforced and yes bubbly increase of value.

If inflation makes the USD worthless, there will be significant social instability and most likely chaos at the GLOBAL level. This is why we can all be part of the cult of USD.

If Bitcoin falls to 0$ tomorrow, the vast majority of people would shrug and move on with their lives.

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#162

Post by andybp85 »

elif wrote: post #137
streamofdigits wrote: post #116

There is no much point in arguing with a cult. This phenomenon will have to work its way through the susceptible demographic, meaning that the large majority of "speculators" will have transferred their disposable wealth to a minority of shrewd operators. The masses will subsequently be "seasoned", or immunized and will no longer participate, at best disappointed, disgusted and mildly embarrassed, at worst suffering…

better than the cult of USD. how's that doing this year? or last year? or the year before? or ever? does it even have a THEORETICAL path to value? I'll take my currently existing and computationally reinforced and yes bubbly increase of value.

USD is an actual currency, and if everybody HODLs it we wind up in a recession (or worse). This comparison is wildly invalid.

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#163

Post by Demiurge »

wruza wrote: post #138
skrebbel wrote: post #19

I own no crypto and I think it's a ridiculous piece of hype, but I think all that reporting (and, on twitter, all that schadenfreude) about bitcoin (etc) going down is nonsense. If you look at a 5 year chart of the BTC value, it's still super insane high and it's been going down hard once before (summer 2021). If I were a crypto fan I'd just tweet HODL like every previous time.

HODL equals to BUY. Would you? I bought^ some of these recent days dips and sold on bounce, but now it’s just too scary. If you look at NASDAQ, it is much more appealing. ^ No, I’m not a desperate idiot, I’m just testing my feelings in trading in general on $1k, to stay calm and not act crazy in a real investment situation

No, it doesn't. HODL equals "hold". "Buy" means make an active decision to buy, hold means make a passive not to make a decision.

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#164

Post by cuteboy19 »

mule1 wrote: post #25
ajross wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The S&P 500 is down about 9% off its high from a month or two ago. BTC just crossed under half of it's peak. It's true that's not captured in the headline, but this is a newsworthy crypto crash. It's not the first or the worst, but it's worth covering.

It's very standard for bitcoin and won't be going away for a while as the asset is still realizing its value across all global liquidity. It's scary and why the SEC dragging their feet on a spot ETF approval i.e. an investment vehicle that a non-crypto fanboy can use (yours truly) is criminal.

The main reason behind that is tether and its price manipulation.

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#165

Post by 3np »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #146
skrebbel wrote: post #19

I own no crypto and I think it's a ridiculous piece of hype, but I think all that reporting (and, on twitter, all that schadenfreude) about bitcoin (etc) going down is nonsense. If you look at a 5 year chart of the BTC value, it's still super insane high and it's been going down hard once before (summer 2021). If I were a crypto fan I'd just tweet HODL like every previous time.

The thing about Bitcoin specifically, though, is that there are only really 2 possible outcomes: 1. The world decides it's "tulips" at some point, and the value goes to 0. 2. The world decides it will be a major part of the financial system, and it goes to 500k or 1 million. Basically, anything in between is just a probability calculation of whether it will end up at one end or the other. The problem with this, thoug…

What makes you assume that only 0 and >500k USD are possible outcomes? Why not 5k or 50k? Why can it not sustain as a niche asset in your book?

> anything in between is just a probability calculation of whether it will end up at one end or the other.

There is some strong assumption you’re leaving out here.

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#166

Post by dragontamer »

thebean11 wrote: post #147
dragontamer wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't be a store of value if your value drops randomly. You especially can't be an inflation hedge if you drop while inflation goes up.

Although obviously not as dramatic as crypto, gold has had huge drops and multi year bear markets, but it's still considered an inflation hedge. The housing market has had huge dips too. Neither is as volatile as crypto, but my point is no asset has a guarantee that its value won't "drop randomly", simply not possible. Inflation was positive during the real estate crash of '08 and during multiple gold bear markets. I…

2008 was a period of deflation. Of course inflation hedges would drop, when inflation was negative.

Oil, housing, car prices all dropped at that time. Prices dropped so low that companies like General Motors went bankrupt.

-------

We face an opposite problem today. Prices are going up. Old established companies love this, they can sell their stuff at higher prices. Aka, inflation. Turns out crypto was terrible at hedging this scenario.

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#167

Post by elif »

belval wrote: post #161
elif wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

better than the cult of USD. how's that doing this year? or last year? or the year before? or ever? does it even have a THEORETICAL path to value? I'll take my currently existing and computationally reinforced and yes bubbly increase of value.

If inflation makes the USD worthless, there will be significant social instability and most likely chaos at the GLOBAL level. This is why we can all be part of the cult of USD. If Bitcoin falls to 0$ tomorrow, the vast majority of people would shrug and move on with their lives.

It doesnt take USD going to 0 to cause social instability.

i'm pretty sure we're already there in 2022.

If you take the 7% inflation of 2021 at face value, and apply it to the M1 money supply, the headline of this article (130B lost) played out for USD eleven times in 2021 without recovering.

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#168

Post by tim333 »

cuteboy19 wrote: post #151
tim333 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an occasional bitcoin holder, I don't think it's a Ponzi scheme. Who's the Ponzi schemer? How come every time it collapses it comes back bigger in a year or two?

70% of Bitcoin holders bought in last year. A continuous stream of greater fools is necessary for its price to even remain at the current level Also, every ponzi scheme gives amazing returns, before it inevitably collapses. For example Madoff was able to give decent returns to his investors for 17 years! 'Number go up' is not a refutation of a ponzi scheme.

Yeah but with a Madoff/Ponzi scheme the thing collapses, Madoff goes to jail, it ends. Bitcoin seems more like other assets that don't make things, stuff like fiat money, gold, fine art and so on.

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#169

Post by DennisP »

skrebbel wrote: post #19

I own no crypto and I think it's a ridiculous piece of hype, but I think all that reporting (and, on twitter, all that schadenfreude) about bitcoin (etc) going down is nonsense. If you look at a 5 year chart of the BTC value, it's still super insane high and it's been going down hard once before (summer 2021). If I were a crypto fan I'd just tweet HODL like every previous time.

Every few months the financial press rediscovers crypto's insane volatility and pretends it's something new. A year ago, the Bitcoin price was $32K. By April it was $62K. It dropped to $31K in July. It got to $68K or so in November. Now it's $33K. Maybe this is the start of the next crypto winter but so far it's nothing unusual.

I would say that it's hard to credit the idea that Bitcoin is "the new gold" or any sort of safe haven asset. Just like the rest of crypto, it crashes when stocks crash, but harder. It's more like a high-flying tech stock.

Re: $130B wiped off crypto markets in 24 hours

#170

Post by KptMarchewa »

fullstop wrote: post #21
ajross wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you making leveraged trades in a retirement account? It's off 9%. If someone told you you'd have to make do with only 91% of your planned income, you'd be OK. This is what markets do.

I won't touch leverage with a 10 foot pole. With that being said, 9% is a lot depending on how much you have in the account.

9% is a blip on the radar after years of record growth.
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