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Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

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Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#161

Post by koonsolo »

alpha_squared wrote: post #56
paxys wrote: post #51

Michael Burry was also famously (and vocally) short TSLA for many years until he finally folded and closed his positions recently. I'm not crazy bullish on crypto myself, but it is pointless to hold the opinion of a few analysts/fund managers above the rest just because they made some good bets in the past. The one thing that the market has shown is that no one knows which way any security will go tomorrow – not Buff…

I don't think that's a sign of Burry being wrong, it very well could mean he couldn't stay solvent in that position longer than the irrationality of the market.

The "irrationality of the market" is most of the time just blaming everyone else for your own mistake.

"I was right, it's just that the whole market keeps being wrong". Denial at its finest.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#162

Post by solarkraft »

rapsey wrote: post #97
lamp987 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When btc becomes overleveraged, we simply see a -25% flashcrash. They happen every couple months.

-25% flash crash when there is a minor economic event (if even that). What happens when there is a major 2008 style economic event? What happens when billions in BTC need to be sold in a day because a large entity needs to cover their margin call? Crypto has no floor.

We saw that in March of 2020, didn’t we? It crashed along with everything else.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#163

Post by koonsolo »

bluecalm wrote: post #120
jqpabc123 wrote: post #9

Tether is a fraud and everyone knows it. More than half of all crypto trades involve tether so the fraud is pervasive. But the most damning aspect of all is the fact that despite common knowledge of the pervasive fraud, USDT maintains it's peg. This indicates collusion by the market making exchanges in perpetrating this widespread, pervasive fraud. This essentially makes the entire crypto marketplace as we know it on…

Sadly I don't think everyone knows it. My experience talking to people who describe themselves as somewhat involved in crypto trading is that many of them don't realize there is very solid evidence for Tether being a fraud. It being run by known scammers and proven lies about USD backing being the most damning. What I usually hear is: "yeah but they were talking about it being fraud for years now and it's still there…

I'm involved in crypto and I really don't care about Tether.

Currently, people are coming in with their own USD and willing to buy Bitcoin at a price of 60K. That has nothing to do with Tether. It has everything to do with people willing to pay that price.

I don't own Tether, so I really don't care.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#164

Post by TomSwirly »

dnautics wrote: post #4

Michael burry is correct. The others (e.g talib, paulsen)... Are just hot gas. What distinguishes a bubble from a mania is the high degree of leverage underlying the price support. To date none of the Bitcoin price peaks in the past Exhibited the hallmark sign of a bubble popping, which is 2x faster price drop relative to rate of climb, if anything most of them were 2x slower. However, if you look at the motion that…

> What distinguishes a bubble from a mania is the high degree of leverage underlying the price support.

This is not historically correct. Consider the South Sea Bubble, which the cryptocurrency bubble is most similar to.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#165

Post by eternalban »

garbagetime wrote: post #32
OnlineGladiator wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart... Nobody is universally brilliant. Newton spent as much time on alchemy as he did physics. Maybe NFTs are just the modern alchemy, as they do seem to turn random items into digital gold.

>Newton spent as much time on alchemy as he did physics I don't think that was an act of unbrilliance. It just didn't happen to work out.

> It just didn't happen to work out.

Nobody is privy to the full content of Newton's mind and his mental processes. One could also argue that his metaphysical preoccupations positively influenced his scientific accomplishments. Heck, at a meta level, is not Newtonian Physics intellectual 'Gold' end result of processing the 'Lead' in his head? That's alchemy.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#166

Post by rapsey »

solarkraft wrote: post #162
rapsey wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

-25% flash crash when there is a minor economic event (if even that). What happens when there is a major 2008 style economic event? What happens when billions in BTC need to be sold in a day because a large entity needs to cover their margin call? Crypto has no floor.

We saw that in March of 2020, didn’t we? It crashed along with everything else.

Yep crypto is not at all independent from the stock market. Too many hedge funds are playing in it.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#167

Post by NicoJuicy »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #27
mrfox321 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As fraudulent as being able to lend at an arbitrary multiple of your reserves. A run the bank would bring it all down. Just like in real life.

Just like in real life. Real life has safeguards in place to prevent a bank run from "bringing it all down". Crypto has no safeguards.

Yes it does. In a flash crash, all the exchanges go down.

Additionally, you can't redeem all your money at once ( except when you're musk probably)

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#169

Post by hprotagonist »

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #23
cm2012 wrote: post #12

It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.

> It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart... Nobody is universally brilliant. Newton spent as much time on alchemy as he did physics. Maybe NFTs are just the modern alchemy, as they do seem to turn random items into digital gold.

Newton also lost huge sums of money investing poorly. Which is quite literally the same thing as now.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#170

Post by trixie_ »

boublepop wrote: post #109
trixie_ wrote: post #76

Transferring money through banks is such a pain in the ass versus crypto. It really feels like we’re at a tipping point where ACH and wire transfers become the equivalent of writing a check.

What do you mean? I regularly transfer money to people from my phone using my net bank, and more often still just using mobile payments. The money is instantly in their accounts and it takes a couple of seconds to type out details. Compare that to crypto, where buying a cup of coffee takes 3 days, and even failed the last time I tried, where I ended up having to borrow credit from a local. The Cafe only “took crypto”…

I’m talking about transferring tens of thousands of dollars. Takes days with a bank, minutes with crypto. Also between services I need to transfer through the bank, I can’t go directly from service to service.
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