How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation

Post by inadequatespace » Mon, Oct 11, 2021, 11:21 PM UTC

myth2018 wrote: post #74

I think it's understandable why programmers dread doing estimates so much. But I believe there are multiple factors contributing to the current overall mess and the guilt should be shared among several areas -- and that includes us. Estimates are often, if not always, mistaken as commitments or deadlines. But we don't do a great job on explaining that estimates are probabilistic by nature, there are risks involved, a…

> But we don't do a great job on explaining that estimates are probabilistic by nature, there are risks involved

Ironically, I've recently been catching flak for "not being confident enough" when I give confidence intervals around my estimates indicating uncertainty.

In some sense, literally can't win. I then realized it was more about my lack of doing this: https://www.csun.edu/~to18470/articles/Managing_your_boss.pd...

Post by CZiNTrPT » Thu, Oct 14, 2021, 8:25 AM UTC

tonyarkles wrote: post #71

nuerow wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A very nice thing about Monte Carlo simulation is that at the end your distribution of results are all within the feasible range. I guess Monte Carlo helps provide conservative estimates behind a façade of rigour, but the truth of the matter is that in the end it's still GIGO. Any empirical distribution only reflects the empirical measures that were used to generate it. If you bundle everything from the time it too…

I’m smiling a bit while reading your comment. You are completely correct that that estimate is virtually meaningless. And yet… that doesn’t mean it’s completely useless! I’ve been using a somewhat meaningless Monto Carlo inspired approach to project planning for a while in my consulting company. The vast majority of the projects I do have only a small amount in common with previous projects, so when I’m estimating I’…

This sounds like a really useful approach. But I'm bad at math and statistics and also not my native language.

Could you maybe provide an example with figures?

Thanks

Re: How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation

Re: How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation