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Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#161

Post by another_story »

Isinlor wrote: post #125
no_wizard wrote: post #8

Perhaps not entire civilization collapse, pending nuclear arsenals unleashed, but I think we are edging ever closer to massive social upheaval, what shape of this I am unsure about. To quote an adjacent article that was mentioned in this one: How Western Civilization Could Collapse > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the e…

The world is better off today in basically every way than it was 100 years ago, and almost unimaginably better than it was 200 years ago. The worst 10% today do about as well as majority of West was doing back then. And the condition of the poor is improving rapidly. The places were it is not true, it is due to wars. But well, this is perspective of a Polish person. My country lost 25% of the population during wars w…

People are better off, but not our arable land, the fish in our oceans, the soil we grow our crops in, the animals in our forest, the forest themselves, etc...

We're in a sports car hitting the gas as we head towards a cliff and you're talking about how much better the interior is on this new model compared to the last.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#162

Post by whoisburbansky »

qsort wrote: post #149
rmchugh wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's not about financial games, but rather externalities. There are significant external costs of our way of life that are borne by others. That new car emits CO2 that contributes to global heating. The steaks we eat come from cows that have been fed with soy beans from cleared rainforests. etc etc. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality#Negative

It frankly still is a stretch to claim that living conditions would revert to even just 1950s levels if we reduced emissions to a sustainable level. Again, most of those improvements have been in real terms. We are simply more productive.

Do we have a good sense of how much of that increase in productivity can be sustained in a carbon neutral fashion?

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#163

Post by baybal2 »

eplanit wrote: post #33
no_wizard wrote: post #8

Perhaps not entire civilization collapse, pending nuclear arsenals unleashed, but I think we are edging ever closer to massive social upheaval, what shape of this I am unsure about. To quote an adjacent article that was mentioned in this one: How Western Civilization Could Collapse > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the e…

As a US citizen, I've been wondering for almost 10 years now if we're edging towards a new civil war. In the past 5 or so, I've been worrying almost equally about the state of global affairs setting the stage for potential world war. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have been in a relatively stable world (9/11, Iraq, and Afghanistan notwithstanding -- none of them world war scale), but it now feels ever les…

> My favorite conspiracy theory is that the CCP is sowing the division within us to drive us to civil war

It's not a conspiracy theory, it's a full-time job for a large number of Russian KGB, and Chinese state security employees.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#164

Post by [deleted] »

voidfunc wrote: post #106
runarberg wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes I am a software engineer in America (although from Europe originally). And to answer your other question, the downfall of America might favor me personally if it would be replaced with international solidarity of workers (as I am a worker my self). However my personal wealth is not my aspiration. Or as Mr. Spock once said: “The needs of the many, outweigh the needs of the few” . If I am one of the few, who’s bene…

Alright there Comrade... lets hope your vision for the future never becomes a reality. Here's the real rub, there's many of us who would also fight to preserve the status quo or something close to it. You think many (most?) HN'ers with their 150K+ jobs want to live either individually or with their families at a much worse quality of life so some folks an ocean or two away can be a little better off? Big doubt.

[deleted]

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#165

Post by plutonorm »

qsort wrote: post #149
rmchugh wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's not about financial games, but rather externalities. There are significant external costs of our way of life that are borne by others. That new car emits CO2 that contributes to global heating. The steaks we eat come from cows that have been fed with soy beans from cleared rainforests. etc etc. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality#Negative

It frankly still is a stretch to claim that living conditions would revert to even just 1950s levels if we reduced emissions to a sustainable level. Again, most of those improvements have been in real terms. We are simply more productive.

is it? I think it's entirely possible that our civilisation would completely collapse.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#166

Post by nebula8804 »

roenxi wrote: post #141
nebula8804 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some would argue the actions of the US in Afghanistan during the Cold War led to 9/11 as blowback. That one event permanently altered the US's path and helped to show that the empire is declining.

In terms of civilisational collapse 9/11 is meaningless, and all of the damage done by response was a series of unforced errors on the US's part. They didn't have to tear off a nose to spite their face.

>They didn't have to tear off a nose to spite their face.

That is the civilizational decline made clear by 9/11.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#167

Post by bryanrasmussen »

qsort wrote: post #149
rmchugh wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's not about financial games, but rather externalities. There are significant external costs of our way of life that are borne by others. That new car emits CO2 that contributes to global heating. The steaks we eat come from cows that have been fed with soy beans from cleared rainforests. etc etc. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality#Negative

It frankly still is a stretch to claim that living conditions would revert to even just 1950s levels if we reduced emissions to a sustainable level. Again, most of those improvements have been in real terms. We are simply more productive.

the analogy of course assumes that there are a bunch of different problems that will come to the family when the cops, the IRS, the electric company, and their bank all come to talk to them at once.

Just as it is generally claimed by scientists that there are a bunch of different problems coming to humanity when ecosystems collapse, temperatures rise by 1.5 degrees celsius, there's not enough freshwater to go around...

it might be stretch to claim etc. etc. but nobody is making that claim, the claim is that humanity is not reducing emissions and not doing anything significant to handle when the bills come due for the last century of everything improving!

on edit: changed is a bunch to are a bunch - is a bunch is probably still correct but are a bunch sounds more correct to my ear.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#168

Post by nebula8804 »

pcrh wrote: post #152
nebula8804 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear this line of reasoning constantly from people who have had the system work for them. What they don't realize is that there is a huge portion of this country where the system is not working and thats where this discontent is coming from. Their misinformation campaigns wouldn't work if there weren't real core issues with the society. The internet has empowered a generation the sees whats behind the curtain. AOC…

>Majority of millennials have never seen a time of economic prosperity in their lifetimes. It is the complete opposite to what their parents experienced. This exaggerated view is unfortunately quite common. It completely ignores the crises that previous generations had to go through, from WWII and the Korean War, to Vietnam, to depopulation of rural areas, to the Oil Crisis, to massive pollution in modern cities, to…

Oh wow this comment is packed with so many unrelated events spanning multiple generations. You fail to see that going into the 70s and 80s the societal structure shifted to a far conservative view in terms of taxation, regulation and other governmental actions. This leads to a direct correlation to the outcomes for Gen X, Y and Z which have had their upbringing in the decades since post-Nixon.

If you look at the raw numbers of how Boomers prospered in their life cycle and compare it to the trajectory of Millennials it tells a clear and jarring picture. Even more so for Gen Z which explain why they are eschewing capitalism at far greater numbers than Millennials ever did. Note: all of my comments applies to a lesser extent to GenX as well but AOC was referencing Millennials since she is one. The point is if you look at the trajectory from Gen X onwards it paints a picture of decline in most aspects of life.

WWII is really the Silent + Greatest Generation and does not excuse the decline that started after Boomers.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#169

Post by ardit33 »

thow-58d4e8b wrote: post #109
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a very literal abd misleading reading. The collapse in the West had very specific observable results including: * A trade crash across the Western empire * A crash in manufacturing * Widespread famine * A retreat from cities and villas * The withdrawal of the military * The withdrawal of centralised government influence * Their replacement by regional warlords * A huge decrease in civil stability * A huge incr…

To steel-man parent's post, usually it's not that civilization per se collapses, the collapse is better characterized as a loss of state capacity. The important distinction being - technology wasn't lost. This framing is also relevant to present-day conversations. Claiming that our civilization is collapsing makes people eyes roll. Claim that we're losing state capacity is a message people are more receptive to.

what does collapse look at you? People dying in mass? To many, civilization collapse means the collapse of advanced 'civic' functions, from trade, to order, to normal civic functions (regulations, laws and order, registrations/admmin functions, coinage etc).

It is replaced by a completely archaic/primitive way of living, with petty kindoms, local warlords, and more.

Also, in parts of europe, whole populations got ravaged by the justinian plague that came later, and eventually new people moved in as mass migration, somme cocqureing to completely replace the previous population. (e.g south slavs in the balkans). their culture, was much more aggrarian and primitive commpared to the one they did replace. Cities fell in ruins and disrepari, aquaducts stopped working, and whole thriving towns and citiess turned into piles of ruble or forgoten ruins.

This process took about 200 years and it didn't happen overnight. (470ad to 670ad), but the decline was remarkable.

So, yeah, 'ciivilization' collaped, to be replaced by a more archaic primitive way of living. It is like rolling the clock back few hundreds of years of progress and going back to 500bc. way of living.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#170

Post by polytely »

Isinlor wrote: post #125
no_wizard wrote: post #8

Perhaps not entire civilization collapse, pending nuclear arsenals unleashed, but I think we are edging ever closer to massive social upheaval, what shape of this I am unsure about. To quote an adjacent article that was mentioned in this one: How Western Civilization Could Collapse > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the e…

The world is better off today in basically every way than it was 100 years ago, and almost unimaginably better than it was 200 years ago. The worst 10% today do about as well as majority of West was doing back then. And the condition of the poor is improving rapidly. The places were it is not true, it is due to wars. But well, this is perspective of a Polish person. My country lost 25% of the population during wars w…

But isn't all this progress bought with the destruction of our environment? It isn't sustainable at all and we are basically betting we can switch to a sustainable model before everything starts breaking down.
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