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Covid-19 Was 'A Preventable Disaster,' WHO-Ordered Report Says

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Re: Covid-19 Was 'A Preventable Disaster,' WHO-Ordered Report Says

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the next pandemic may be just as bad as this one. or worse. Keep the aerosol vector, but make it even more effective. Increase the effectiveness of surface transmission. Throw in greater resistant to surfactants (soap) and hand sanitizers. boom!

Your scenario only increases infectiousness. Many viruses are more deadly than covid 19. H5N1 is about 60% fatal, more deadly than ebola. It's quite difficult to contract at least until researchers genetically modified it to be airborne. They didn't need permission for this research and didn't even perform it in the highest safety level labs.

As I indicated in another post, the fatality rate of COVID-19 isn't the big issue with the disease. Extremely deadly diseases don't tell to do well in the long run, so although they may have a huge impact within a short time, they tend not to pose long term threats. COVID-19, however, is a glimpse into what would be a perfect storm of high infectiousness with high levels of required hospitalization/medical treatment for good recovery. COVID-19, with its relatively low death rate and moderate hospitalization levels, has already managed to somewhat overload public health systems in many parts of the world. The death rate doesn't have to increase to make a future pandemic much, much worse.

Re: Covid-19 Was 'A Preventable Disaster,' WHO-Ordered Report Says

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was very early in the pandemic, I doubt that many people had masks early, and the problem of people hoarding was very real and medical professionals were having a lot of difficulty acquiring PPE. I think it was a difficult situation, I don't think they handled it the best they could have, but the response (in the context of massive amounts of hoarding) was understandable. I know that this will not be a popular t…

> medical professionals were having a lot of difficulty acquiring PPE Weirdly, medical professionals were also being told not to wear masks. Multiple nurses were either fired or quit over the issue, because hospital policy didn't allow general mask-wearing out of a fear of scaring people: https://www.wbrc.com/2020/03/23/nurse-claims-he-was-fired-we... https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85760 https…

Yes, and that is absolutely stupid and a failure.

I am curious if that is due to the WHO messaging or just because with thousands of hospitals, the probability of having a stupid manager approaches 1.

Re: Covid-19 Was 'A Preventable Disaster,' WHO-Ordered Report Says

#163

Yeah, if only the organization meant to give accurate epidemiology information hadn't first denied airborne transmission, then denied mask efficacy, and then espoused 6 feet distance bullshido. From the speed of spread of covid, it was clear that it was airborne. I don't need a PHD in epidemiology to not mislead the public.

BTW WHO still says 1m is adequate. Previously they said 1m with no masks, indoors with no ventilation was fine.

Re: Covid-19 Was 'A Preventable Disaster,' WHO-Ordered Report Says

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This goes to all politicians and "experts" and journalists. The slavish subservience to authority and desperate clamor to lick boot sickens me. I mean, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, the gun running and drug smuggling and interventions in South and Central America, banking corruption and laundering, the subprime crash, the Panama Papers, Congressional insider trading, corporations paying no taxes while politician…

> The slavish subservience to authority and desperate clamor to lick boot sickens me. Have you considered that the "desperate clamor" might just be a clamor to do the best thing ? And just how would we do that? Your entire attitude seems to be predicated on the idea that nobody actually knows anything, there's no point listening to "experts" (even putting the quotes around the word is intended to be dismissive), and…

> Have you considered that the "desperate clamor" might just be a clamor to do the best thing ? And just how would we do that?

I have considered that, and rejected it.

I'm not talking about people who don't really know and genuinely get their information from whatever their TV or internet or friends tell them and they just go along with it but generally live and let live in the face of differing opinions.

I'm talking about the hateful bullying mobs going around attacking people, and the people and corporations who actually look into the information which is quite easy to see those "authorities" are hardly a good source of truth, yet they grovel down on their hands and knees to lick boot.

> Your entire attitude seems to be predicated on the idea that nobody actually knows anything, there's no point listening to "experts" (even putting the quotes around the word is intended to be dismissive), and there's no way to spend time learning more about something.

That's not my attitude.

> Look, you've provided a great list of terrible things that the US (and other) governments have done (though it's necessarily incomplete and mostly rather recent). But in the context of your point, so what?

The context of my point is that journalists, politicians, and other self-proclaimed "experts" are not. It is more the rule than the exception that they are self-interested corrupt liars and manipulators.

I'm not talking about, say, the scientist who develops climate models or the medical researcher developing vaccines. I'm not talking about actual experts.

> What about the experts that know how to build bridges properly? What about the governmental policies that actually result in positive changes? What about the doctors, engineers, designers, architects, farmers who actually do have a better understanding of their fields than an average person?

What about them? None of them are manipulating the populace into going to war, or drumming up their throngs of pathetic subservient bootlickers and brownshirts to attack and bully anybody who questions them. So I'm obviously not talking about them.

> I don't disagree with you about the lamentable actions of our government and the processes/structures that allow them to happen. But I reject the implication that this requires me to just be infinitely cynical about everything.

There was no implication.

Re: Covid-19 Was 'A Preventable Disaster,' WHO-Ordered Report Says

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should re-read my original comment. I said that travel restrictions would not do anything unless the pandemic strategy was eradiction. If the strategy is to "flattien the curve", then there is essentially no effect from closing borders. >1. Lockdown and travel restrictions are not the same. Yes, this is the entire point of my argument. >2. Travel restrictions and reasonable public health safety measure are not ex…

> You should re-read my original comment. I said that travel restrictions would not do anything unless the pandemic strategy was eradiction. If the strategy is to "flattien the curve", then there is essentially no effect from closing borders. You should look outside the window there are more countries in the world than just the EU and the USA. Taiwan had effectively zero community transmission for almost a year witho…

This is exactly my argument. I said that unless you have a policy of eradication, travel restrictions are useless.

Taiwan had a policy of eradication. So I don't see how anything conflicts with what I said.

I have many friends and family that lived in Europe. They did real lockdows in the first wave, and it worked. For the second, third and fourth wave, lockdowns were very light and allowed people to go to work and often children to go to school. So they didn't work.

Re: Covid-19 Was 'A Preventable Disaster,' WHO-Ordered Report Says

#166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The slavish subservience to authority and desperate clamor to lick boot sickens me. Have you considered that the "desperate clamor" might just be a clamor to do the best thing ? And just how would we do that? Your entire attitude seems to be predicated on the idea that nobody actually knows anything, there's no point listening to "experts" (even putting the quotes around the word is intended to be dismissive), and…

> Have you considered that the "desperate clamor" might just be a clamor to do the best thing ? And just how would we do that? I have considered that, and rejected it. I'm not talking about people who don't really know and genuinely get their information from whatever their TV or internet or friends tell them and they just go along with it but generally live and let live in the face of differing opinions. I'm talking…

So how do you distinguish between faux "experts" and actual experts?

Do you believe that people who write (long form articles, books) about a subject have nothing useful to say?

Re: Covid-19 Was 'A Preventable Disaster,' WHO-Ordered Report Says

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically, WHO and CDC have done bad messaging on both sides of this. I get slammed every time I bring this up now, because the issue is politicized and, let's be honest, pretty traumatic as well. But I think it's important so I'll keep trying. Everyone should have been masking up as soon as possible in the pandemic. Case counts were low, we didn't know much about the route of transmission, and we also thought it wa…

Do you have any sources for cloth or surgical masks not working? The study in this article [0] is still in pre-print but it claims that a change to mandatory mask wearing was a critical factor in crushing the virus in Melbourne's second wave. I've seen some comments on HN that masks aren't effective but from what I've read and observed in Melbourne/Australia they have been very effective. [0] https://www.abc.net.au/n…

See some sibling comments for my specific thoughts on the matter.

Melbourne did everything they could think of, and the sum of it worked. This included a very severe lockdown, contact tracing, masking in the very limited public interactions which were allowed, and starting with a relatively low case count. I'm fairly confident that masks were the least important part of this, and that shutting down basically every part of public life was the most.

I did say that masking early on was indicated, and that WHO and CDC failed us there. I sort of glossed over the part where case counts were low, but it's there, and it's pretty important.

What the US and Europe needed early is what New Zealand and Australia (and Taiwan, Korea, maybe a couple other Southeast Asian countries) actually managed: universal masking, a nearly-complete cessation of public life, widespread testing, contact tracing, and central quarantine for the infected. Instead, we got dithering and "wash your hands".

It was too late for that suite of interventions to be effective by 1st April at the latest. Earlier for Europe, which had the early wave epidemic in Italy.

So of course, that's when masking was adopted, as a totemic symbol that the powers that be were "doing something". But we had crossed the point where it could help, and it was always the least important thing.

Re: Covid-19 Was 'A Preventable Disaster,' WHO-Ordered Report Says

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any sources for cloth or surgical masks not working? The study in this article [0] is still in pre-print but it claims that a change to mandatory mask wearing was a critical factor in crushing the virus in Melbourne's second wave. I've seen some comments on HN that masks aren't effective but from what I've read and observed in Melbourne/Australia they have been very effective. [0] https://www.abc.net.au/n…

See some sibling comments for my specific thoughts on the matter. Melbourne did everything they could think of, and the sum of it worked. This included a very severe lockdown, contact tracing, masking in the very limited public interactions which were allowed , and starting with a relatively low case count. I'm fairly confident that masks were the least important part of this, and that shutting down basically every p…

> See some sibling comments for my specific thoughts on the matter.

I took a look at your sibling comments, but I don't see any sources linked that suggest cloth masks are so ineffective as to be useless.

Here are a couple studies suggesting they aren't useless (searched "cloth mask aerosol protection" via DDG):

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c03252 (effectiveness had a very wide range, depending on weave, thread count, etc.)

https://www.nist.gov/publications/filtration-efficiencies-na...

I get what you're saying in general, that "cloth mask" means many different things, and that those things aren't going to have the same levels of protection, but you seem to be pushing the idea -- without evidence -- that all cloth masks are worse than useless. Science doesn't seem to agree with you?

Re: Covid-19 Was 'A Preventable Disaster,' WHO-Ordered Report Says

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And politicians were encouraging people to go out in the streets and gather en masse to celebrate / protest / whatever, denouncing border controls as racism, etc. Putting positive patients into nursing homes ill equipped to cope with it. It was a huge clusterf...

Another one: refusing to close schools because they served as daycare for higher-priority constituencies.

Oddly this turned out to be the right advice.

Re: Covid-19 Was 'A Preventable Disaster,' WHO-Ordered Report Says

#170
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not who you’re asking but I wish we had learned that a robust debate is necessary and we shouldn’t just assume tha Anthony Fauci has read the latest research. https://www.econlib.org/great-moments-in-epidemiology/ He did enormous damage in 1983 by speculating about casual transmission of HIV within households even though he admitted to not having read the paper. He was slow to get up to speed on aerosol transmiss…

I would be suspicious of any claims that we should believe any particular individual about anything. Tearing down a particular individual for their mistakes (rightly or wrongly) is essentially a strawman. I don't hear or read people saying "we should follow what Dr. Fauci says". I hear and read saying "we should follow the science", and that necessarily means (for a novel disease, whether that's HIV or COVID-19) ente…

I think that one thing the pandemic has demonstrated is that groups of experts are just as prone to groupthink as non-experts. Thomas Kuhn may argue that they are even more prone to groupthink.

Yet we've also seen intelligent non-experts rise to the occasion. An entrepreneur like Balaji Srinivasan who was sounding the alarm about how serious this was a month or two ahead of public health officials and was mocked for stepping outside of his lane[0], a programmer/sociologist like Zenep Tufecki who has written a series of important analyses over the last year and who later admitted that she felt like she was risking her career by advocating for masks when all the public health authorities were lined up against it [1], or economist Emily Oster who has done a better job of clear communication to the public about how to balance risks and understand the different levels of certainty we had on any given COVID related topic and published clearer analyses of school safety that many states' policies still flatly ignore.[2]

These are all people who have a wide range of experience and interests but were able to make timely contributions that experts may have been too blinkered to develop.

It's not about tearing down any individual, and I apologize if comment went too far in that direction. But we should be concerned about institutions that reject well-argued analysis of available evidence because its coming from the wrong place, or failing to even consider counterarguments and their full slate of implications. One concept that I recently learned about is the 10th man rule which Israeli intelligence adopted after the surprise attach that led to the Yom Kippur war. Essentially that if there are 10 people in a room and the first nine all express the same opinion, it becomes the duty of the 10th man to argue the opposite case regardless of what he or she believes. There are a lot of 10th men out there who had their opinions or voices excluded for too long.

Whatever it is that filters intelligent arguments from outside of the establishment is something that should be addressed before we need to go through something like this again. We would also do well to find ways to include a role for smart dissenting outsiders in conversations like these early.

[0] https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/2/13/21128209/coronavirus-fe...

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/23/business/media/how-zeynep...

> When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told Americans in January that they didn’t need to wear masks, Dr. S. Vincent Rajkumar, a professor at the Mayo Clinic and the editor of the Blood Cancer Journal, couldn’t believe his ears.

> But he kept silent until Zeynep Tufekci (pronounced ZAY-nep too-FEK-chee), a sociologist he had met on Twitter, wrote that the C.D.C. had blundered by saying protective face coverings should be worn by health workers but not ordinary people.

> “Here I am, the editor of a journal in a high profile institution, yet I didn’t have the guts to speak out that it just doesn’t make sense,” Dr. Rajkumar told me. “Everybody should be wearing masks.”

[2] Articles in various publications + https://explaincovid.org & https://www.qualtrics.com/news/national-covid-education-dash...

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