Covid: US backs waiver on vaccine intellectual property • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid: US backs waiver on vaccine intellectual property

#161

Post by yokaze » Thu, May 06, 2021, 9:13 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #89

yokaze wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I feel like this is killing the goose that laid the golden egg. That is quite hyperbolic, because at worst it will reduce profits, but hardly "kill" them. > I want the companies and investors in the pharmaceuticals that have made these to become fabulously wealthy as an incentive for companies to invest in the capabilities to produce these. The incentive to invest is the chance of future profits. Those still exists…

Really? Having the rules change in the middle of the game won’t affect investments? I mean, what if the next company comes up with a cure for AIDS. Are they confident the IP won’t be broken either?

> Having the rules change in the middle of the game won’t affect investments?

The rules of the game change all the time. Every business plan has to take into consideration the risks/benefits of possible regulatory changes. And yes, changes will affect investment. But the hypothesis is, it will drive investment away to the extent that it will "kill the goose...". I would phrase it less hyperbolic as "in a significant way".

To reiterate: We are talking here (up to now) a about once in a life-time event. And that is both the Covid crisis, as well as being able to profit from.

> I mean, what if the next company comes up with a cure for AIDS. Are they confident the IP won’t be broken either?

So the classical slippery slope argument. The whole point why governments are bringing the option on the table is, because it is an exceptional event. So, it doesn't translate to AIDS/HIV.

Will people believe that? That's anyones guess. Do you believe anyone will forgo possible profits from the whole range of possibilities of treatments based on mRNA because of that precedent? I seriously doubt that.

I do not see those risks, but then I also do not see much the benefit either. It isn't like just the patents are the limiting factor, and you could ramp up a production of those vaccines from one day to the other.

Re: Covid: US backs waiver on vaccine intellectual property

#162

Post by true_religion » Thu, May 06, 2021, 9:28 PM UTC

mbg721 wrote: post #87

true_religion wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's be fair. We all gave Trump the benefit of the doubt. It was only after years of broken promises, and angry outbursts that some people turned against him by default. Give Biden at least 1 year, and you'll see that some people are reflexively critical of him too.

Centrist voters may have given him some benefit of the doubt, but the news media never did and were never going to. Conservatives knew that ahead of time, which is why they voted for someone prone to angry outbursts. Biden isn't exactly an outsider, and is just the face for scores of actual decision-makers in his administration; I don't think one more year is going to surprise anybody.

The news media is largely conservative. Over 50% of people in the US watch Fox news.

Now, granted, Murdoch wasn't always in favor of Trump, he still fell into line after the guy got elected.

Re: Covid: US backs waiver on vaccine intellectual property

#163

Post by [deleted] » Fri, May 07, 2021, 12:53 AM UTC

true_religion wrote: post #162

mbg721 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Centrist voters may have given him some benefit of the doubt, but the news media never did and were never going to. Conservatives knew that ahead of time, which is why they voted for someone prone to angry outbursts. Biden isn't exactly an outsider, and is just the face for scores of actual decision-makers in his administration; I don't think one more year is going to surprise anybody.

The news media is largely conservative. Over 50% of people in the US watch Fox news. Now, granted, Murdoch wasn't always in favor of Trump, he still fell into line after the guy got elected.

[deleted]

Re: Covid: US backs waiver on vaccine intellectual property

#164

Post by neolog » Fri, May 07, 2021, 12:53 AM UTC

refurb wrote: post #90

neolog wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I want the companies and investors in the pharmaceuticals that have made these to become fabulously wealthy They were already fabulously wealthy. Moderna alone had $232 million revenue last year.

Net loss was $747 million for the year ended December 31, 2020 compared to $514 million for the year ended December 31, 2019. https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-d...

Imagine being so rich you can lose a billion dollars under normal operation.

Re: Covid: US backs waiver on vaccine intellectual property

#165

Post by jollybean » Fri, May 07, 2021, 1:37 AM UTC

username90 wrote: post #138

jollybean wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I share your cynicism, but it actually will change the vaccine equation. Money and risk is a very material part of the equation, now that the dynamics have changed, a lot more speculative money will be available. Supply and Demand works on cash just as it does for other things. Also I don't think it has a populist aspect. Exporting 'already made vaccines' does have a populist risk - a lot of Americans may 'get really…

USA has the means to produce a lot of it, Europe had the means to develop it. Doesn't make sense that USA gets to enjoy all the benefits of producing without giving Europe any credit for developing it. Why should EU share its research with USA in the future if USA doesn't want to reciprocate?

So first, Supply and Demand is not just about 'means', it's about process, risk etc.. Removing a major barrier increases potential.

Second, it's a lot to do with the 'rest of the world' not really the US.

Third, AZ was UK not Europe, J&J was Neterhlands but owned by an American firm, Pfizer/BioNTech was both, Moderna was USA. So I don't see how this is a 'Europe victim' scenario.

Re: Covid: US backs waiver on vaccine intellectual property

#166

Post by refurb » Fri, May 07, 2021, 4:37 AM UTC

neolog wrote: post #164

refurb wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Net loss was $747 million for the year ended December 31, 2020 compared to $514 million for the year ended December 31, 2019. https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-d...

Imagine being so rich you can lose a billion dollars under normal operation.

You know how I know you don’t understand how R&D works?

Re: Covid: US backs waiver on vaccine intellectual property

#167

Post by KirillPanov » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:41 AM UTC

maxerickson wrote: post #55

KirillPanov wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would love it if somebody would post a more detailed explanation of the mRNA vaccine manufacturing process here on HN. The news media keeps mumbling vague terms like "ingredients", and it's frustrating. Conventional vaccine production is a highly biological process... chicken eggs being used to make the flu vaccines and so forth. I was under the impression that the mRNA vaccines are chemically much simpler -- just…

They brew them. A DNA sequence that encodes the intended mRNA strand is embedded into a bacterial plasmid. Bacteria take in that plasmid and reproduce, making a bunch of plasmids with the mRNA encoding DNA embedded in them. The bacteria are killed and broken open and the plasmids are purified. The DNA sequence is then cut out of the plasmids and transcribed into mRNA. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/health/p…

Wow, very surprised to hear that those mRNA come from actual living, metabolizing, (albeit single-cell) organisms.

Why do they do it that way?

When you order DNA plasmids from places like Addgene the stuff they ship you is chemically synthesized using enzymes rather than and entire complete living cell, right? I would've thought Pfizer would do the same thing and then transcribe that DNA into mRNA.

Is it because of the massive quantities of material they need to produce?

Re: Covid: US backs waiver on vaccine intellectual property

#168

Post by KirillPanov » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:48 AM UTC

thehappypm wrote: post #141

KirillPanov wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would love it if somebody would post a more detailed explanation of the mRNA vaccine manufacturing process here on HN. The news media keeps mumbling vague terms like "ingredients", and it's frustrating. Conventional vaccine production is a highly biological process... chicken eggs being used to make the flu vaccines and so forth. I was under the impression that the mRNA vaccines are chemically much simpler -- just…

You're in luck, the New York Times wrote an amazing piece on this exact topic: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/health/pfizer-coron...

The graphics are cute, but the article left me with way more questions than answers. It spent most of its time trying to impress the reader with how much interstate shipping was involved in the process (who cares?).

No details on which ingredients are the ones causing so much consternation at the WTO right now, nor any answer to the obvious question "why aren't the DNA plasmids made the same way other commercial plasmid services make them"?

But hey, it's the NYTimes. They have to hold the attention of an audience that mostly has no science background.

Re: Covid: US backs waiver on vaccine intellectual property

#169

Post by KirillPanov » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:58 AM UTC

hrasyid wrote: post #68

KirillPanov wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would love it if somebody would post a more detailed explanation of the mRNA vaccine manufacturing process here on HN. The news media keeps mumbling vague terms like "ingredients", and it's frustrating. Conventional vaccine production is a highly biological process... chicken eggs being used to make the flu vaccines and so forth. I was under the impression that the mRNA vaccines are chemically much simpler -- just…

Here's an article about the manufacturing process and its challenges: https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2021/02/06/... The Economist isn't a technical publication but it is known to do its homework and get details like this right.

Wow, this is a much better article than the one from the NYTimes. Thank you. Especially for this gem:

Supplies of raw materials such as nucleotides are also tight. According to Dr Zarur, Thermo Fisher, an American chemical-supplies company, has spent $200m on a new facility in Lithuania to make these molecules, though the firm itself would not confirm this.

I would not have expected this, but it definitely explains a whole lot of otherwise-cryptic claims being made in the WTO debate. I guess it does sort of make sense. The worldwide demand for pure bulk nucleotides probably shot up hundreds or thousands-fold as a result of COVID-19 vax manufacturing.

Re: Covid: US backs waiver on vaccine intellectual property

#170

Post by sealeck » Fri, May 07, 2021, 7:03 AM UTC

thehappypm wrote: post #140

sschueller wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US and UK approach it as if they are at war with everyone else. It is very sad to see where their priorities really are when this is a global issue not separated by borders. The resulting chip shortage and the state which India is in will also affect the US and UK even if they don't think it will.

The West has a deep obligation to end the pandemic globally, but it also has every right to end the pandemic at home first. Israel, the US, and the UK are acting like they're at war against the pandemic, and finally, they're winning.

But other countries have acted as though there was an infectious disease outbreak, haven't had the deaths and don't need to "win" because they didn't "loose" in the first place.