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If you want peace, study war

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Re: If you want peace, study war

#161

Post by travisjungroth »

joshmarlow wrote: post #125
roenxi wrote: post #14

The scary thing for me about wars is that the soldiers aren't the ones making the decisions. Some group of people in comfortable offices look at a map, says "yeah, I think this option is more favourable to us than peace". Then a war happens. It is all about incentives and capabilities. One of the lessons from being a Stallman watcher for many years - people are profoundly evidence based . If there hasn't been a war i…

> people are profoundly evidence based. If there hasn't been a war in 30 years, then they assume there will not be a war next year no matter how the background is changing. I model this differently - people are very conservative about narrative change. I feel it works more generally. Examples: If we've had peace for 30 years, then war seems impossible. If we've had government fiat currency for a centuries or more, th…

Yeah, “first principles” is such a SV cliche, but it’s very powerful for getting around this.

I think the pendulum can swing too far the other way, though. People imagine a blank slate, but we don’t live in a blank slate, so you’re essentially imagining a fantasy world. Or, you just end up recreating the old world in the new one but worse.

Re: If you want peace, study war

#162

Post by loceng »

roenxi wrote: post #14

The scary thing for me about wars is that the soldiers aren't the ones making the decisions. Some group of people in comfortable offices look at a map, says "yeah, I think this option is more favourable to us than peace". Then a war happens. It is all about incentives and capabilities. One of the lessons from being a Stallman watcher for many years - people are profoundly evidence based . If there hasn't been a war i…

This is why the ideal scenario is the whole military is voluntary, meaning you're forced to make sure everyone is educated and trained well enough to understand the consequences of different scenarios, enough that people will volunteer when the time comes. Well, at least historically that's how it would work - now it's technology that's used without human life at stake, to those who send, and hopefully modern warfare will use AI and weapons that are designed for no collateral damage; destroy infrastructure and military tools, so if well targeted then soldiers et al will learn to simply avoid this infrastructure and tools and they will live.

Re: If you want peace, study war

#163

Post by loceng »

foxyv wrote: post #107

"Causes of Civil War are also, that the Wealth of the Nation is in too few mens hands, and that no certain means are provided to keep all men from a necessity either to beg, or steal, or be Souldiers." - William Petty While this is a quote about civil war, it points out a key fact. A country with a strong middle class is much less likely to send its children to war over stupid things. Even the USA barely sent 177,000…

Brilliant. I'll take this one step further, if you want peace, study health.

Re: If you want peace, study war

#164

Post by FooHentai »

8fGTBjZxBcHq wrote: post #114
saiya-jin wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Richer folks also tent to study more and have say more options to expand their mind to various views, cultures and places. Far harder to manipulate/outright brainwash those into some patriotic bullshit about defending your home from those evil bad guys. Unless you force drafts with hard punishments for those avoiding of course, but such an army would have very low morale not only these days.

I guess you aren't in the US because we're possibly at the early stages of a civil war led by a brainwashed bourgeoisie.

Enabled, I would say at a more fundamental level, by an erosion of the middle class.

Note the election rhetoric for several iterations now has focused on promising improvements in prosperity for the common man.

Nothing new of course, but the subsequent inaction and worsening of the situation by the time the next election cycle rolls around just leads to the rhetoric intensifying and a populace increasingly willing to elect whomever makes the most outlandish promises.

Re: If you want peace, study war

#165

Post by ip26 »

foxyv wrote: post #107

"Causes of Civil War are also, that the Wealth of the Nation is in too few mens hands, and that no certain means are provided to keep all men from a necessity either to beg, or steal, or be Souldiers." - William Petty While this is a quote about civil war, it points out a key fact. A country with a strong middle class is much less likely to send its children to war over stupid things. Even the USA barely sent 177,000…

I would nudge your course slightly. Instead of simply poverty, economic opportunity. In poverty, with no economic opportunity, war is your only opportunity.

Re: If you want peace, study war

#166

Post by dctoedt »

watwut wrote: post #70
roenxi wrote: post #14

The scary thing for me about wars is that the soldiers aren't the ones making the decisions. Some group of people in comfortable offices look at a map, says "yeah, I think this option is more favourable to us than peace". Then a war happens. It is all about incentives and capabilities. One of the lessons from being a Stallman watcher for many years - people are profoundly evidence based . If there hasn't been a war i…

On average, military tends to be more pro-war then civilians. Partly it is self-selection, partly it is values taught in training (values taught because they make you more effective soldier). > The fading of WWII in the public memory could be argued as the biggest single risk that society faces. There are too many people who just won't understand how bad and how possible total war is. People who started WWII were WWI…

> On average, military tends to be more pro-war then civilians.

A lot of veterans would disagree about your "on average" thought. Sure, there are belligerent vets out there, but most have a better idea about the not-so-good stuff that happens in a war.

Re: If you want peace, study war

#167

Post by captainredbeard »

saiya-jin wrote: post #110
foxyv wrote: post #107

"Causes of Civil War are also, that the Wealth of the Nation is in too few mens hands, and that no certain means are provided to keep all men from a necessity either to beg, or steal, or be Souldiers." - William Petty While this is a quote about civil war, it points out a key fact. A country with a strong middle class is much less likely to send its children to war over stupid things. Even the USA barely sent 177,000…

Richer folks also tent to study more and have say more options to expand their mind to various views, cultures and places. Far harder to manipulate/outright brainwash those into some patriotic bullshit about defending your home from those evil bad guys. Unless you force drafts with hard punishments for those avoiding of course, but such an army would have very low morale not only these days.

It's an inversion of history, in some ways, as typically the elite were responsible for much of the fighting and defense of the land (e.g. Medieval England).

Re: If you want peace, study war

#168

Post by bluGill »

chmod600 wrote: post #5

I have a theory that offensive weaponry advancements produce peace, while defensive advancements produce war. If you're in a castle, it's easier to send armies around, knowing that you'll be safe. But if there are nukes and ICBMs, just stick with the status quo. Any validity to this theory?

If you could build a caste (Expensive, even if you use slave labor) that also meant you had the ability to hire and train knights. In fact most castles were built because the king (who often wasn't very powerful, thus the need to make these deals) offered you rule over some area of land in exchange for raising those knights.

The Castle was built as a place to live on your land so you could keep it. If there was a peasant revolt the castle meant they couldn't do anything about you, while your army could leave anytime the peasants were busy elsewhere to harass them. Thus the castle enabled war as you said, but the castle generally came after raising the army in the first place.

Re: If you want peace, study war

#169

Post by clairity »

SllX wrote: post #158
clairity wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

note that it's not that they're in the military, it's that they're too close and invested. distance fosters dispassion, so the leader not being part of the military specifically, rather than simply being a civilian, is what makes decisions more rational (also, as others have noted, that dispassion can also foster war because the civilian leader has no real skin in the game).

Yes, but when the leader is a politician, he has skin in a different game: getting re-elected. It doesn’t stop them from going to war, but it makes it less likely.

that's a different game from putting your life at risk.

Re: If you want peace, study war

#170

Post by ygjb »

SllX wrote: post #158
clairity wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

note that it's not that they're in the military, it's that they're too close and invested. distance fosters dispassion, so the leader not being part of the military specifically, rather than simply being a civilian, is what makes decisions more rational (also, as others have noted, that dispassion can also foster war because the civilian leader has no real skin in the game).

Yes, but when the leader is a politician, he has skin in a different game: getting re-elected. It doesn’t stop them from going to war, but it makes it less likely.

That is straight up at odds with American (or Canadian, or for the most part, UK) history. In the United States Trump is the first "war-time" president to blow re-election during an active war, and his term was punctuated by attempts at troop draw down, coupled with inflammatory rhetoric towards Iran when he was low in polls.

Engaging in something that can be spun as a just war is a viable re-election tactic.

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