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London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

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Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#161

Post by mainstreemm »

titzer wrote: post #137
polote wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the government should just let this run its course Isn't it just an opinion? I personally think that way. Why wouldn't I be allowed to think that?

You're allowed to think any way you want. And you're even allowed to explain that you do think that and why. But most people will probably think that's plainly a bad plan and point out that lots of people will die because of it, so be prepared to feel embarrassed often.

It's really not that uncommon of a belief, those who hold it just get shamed a lot by the crowd that parrots the media narrative all the time and keep it amongst ourselves, instead of talking to you about it.

Maybe most people do believe what you do, but majority opinion isn't automatically right opinion. You know what else will kill people? Economic shock.

It's so arrogant to act like an opinion like yours is completely obviously right, and to tell someone to "prepare to feel embarrassed often". You should feel embarrassed.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#162

Post by vondur »

lrossi wrote: post #41

Here is a video filmed in London this Christmas: https://youtu.be/Yz7wJZln6Kw Plenty of people outside. In fact, I would call it lightly crowded, although less than other years. Many people don’t wear masks. It’s not a surprise that transmission has increased. Nevertheless, London looked absolutely beautiful. Not sure if this was worth the risks though.

As far as I can remember reading, Covid does not really transmit when outside. It's mainly happening due to people getting together inside.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#163

Post by 0-_-0 »

tonfa wrote: post #133
0-_-0 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That data shows 151 free out of 1033 adult critical care beds in London in January 2019 (14.6% free)

And there's 300 extra beds now, right?

I can't find that data. I did find daily statistics for "Total beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00)"[0], which from the 1st to 6th of January is the following sequence:

5511 5861 6358 6733 6816 7034

So apparently increasing rapidly

[0]: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas...

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#164

Post by LatteLazy »

qznc wrote: post #111
LatteLazy wrote: post #99

Work places remain open. People continue not to wear masks with impunity. Closing schools will help a bit. But I doubt it will reverse the spread, it wasn't enough for the old covid 19, let alone the new strain.

Closing schools did help a lot last spring: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/15/scie...

I'm probably going to get the maths wrong here, please correct me kind stranger!

So closing schools and universities reduces R values by 38% (16%-54%) per your excellent link. England R value is about 1.3 at last count.

1.3*(1-38%) = 0.806

So hopefully that's enough.

I'm a cynic and pessimistic so I worry that:

London is likely higher (more workers, denser, people use public transport).

Keeping nurseries open and some pupils in schools will reduce the 38%.

The spike from christmas/new year will ruin things.

I guess the optimist would say:

1.3m people vaccinated (especially in high risk groups) means the hospitalisation rate should go down.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#166

Post by ldrndll »

polote wrote: post #151
patrec wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking only for myself, I think your opinion is idiotic based on some simple back of the envelope math I did many months ago (when the UK announced its herd immunity plan), relating to hospital capacity, likely peak case numbers, proportion of cases that would need hospital treatment or die and some simple minded guesses about knock-on effects for the rest of the health system. I have not bothered to redo these cal…

if we let the virus lives its life, maximum 2% of pop will die, 90 more % will live normally and a few percent will have covid related health issues. so we sacrifice a few percent of population for the future of the others

Care to cite any stats supporting your assertion that a maximum of 2% of the population would die? During periods where the healthcare system has been overloaded the mortality rates have been many multiples of that during times when healthcare is provided at an appropriate level.

What’s more, do you have any reasonable figures to suggest why letting a percentage or more of the population die unnecessarily, consigning even larger numbers to long-term health problems and so forth is somehow a good choice?

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#167

Post by [deleted] »

matthewmacleod wrote: post #159
polote wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if we let the virus lives its life, maximum 2% of pop will die, 90 more % will live normally and a few percent will have covid related health issues. so we sacrifice a few percent of population for the future of the others

This is obviously not true, since allowing the virus to spread freely massively increases the rate of fatalities and long-term illness once healthcare becomes overwhelmed.

[deleted]

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#168

Post by andred14 »

jpxw wrote: post #33

And yet we still have idiots here in the UK saying things ranging from: * coronavirus is invented as a government power grab * the government locking down is a deliberate ploy to kill small businesses * the government should just let this run its course, it’s Just A Flu TM * hospitals are actually empty (the “proof” being people recording empty waiting rooms in outpatient departments on bank holiday weekends) * coron…

The scam has been revealed in many ways:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NoNewNormal/comments/kl15z4/italian...

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#169

Post by design-material »

polote wrote: post #138
jpxw wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re allowed to think it, it’s just patently idiotic. Our hospitals would be overwhelmed, the morality rate would skyrocket amongst COVID and non-COVID patients alike.

So now the number of free icu beds in hospital and number of death are the only kpi we look at to make decisions? It is crazy how people opinion like mine is fully ignored in Europe. today we tolerate flu deaths so that people can live freely, why shouldn't we tolerate covid deaths to live freely?

Because it's not possible to 'tolerate' them - left unchecked it would overwhelm our health service, destroy the economy, and cripple society.

Your proposal is a fantasy; it sounds as if you're wishing this was similar in effect and scope to the flu (and I'm sure we all wish that) but clearly that seems not to be the case

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