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Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

japantimes.co.jp

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Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#161

Post by anonymoushn »

GuB-42 wrote: post #138
GregarianChild wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Copy Taiwan. No country has been dealing better with Covid than Taiwan. No lockdown, and > 200 days without new Covid case [1]. Taipei had daily direct flights from Wuhan, and the Diamond Princess mooring near Taipei. They told the world early on [2] how they did it. Summary: Border closure, contract tracing, testing and controlled quarantine for those testing positive . It's worth reading [2] to realise how swiftly,…

I often see "copy this country" but often, it is simply not possible, policies are usually a result of each country specificities more than the other way around. For Taiwan. - It is an island - It has an effective, well centralized surveillance network - It has (presumably) an obedient population, or at least, one that don't think personal freedom includes the right to spread the disease - They were well prepared tha…

Sure, then copy Vietnam or Australia.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#162

Post by ketamine__ »

sjg007 wrote: post #152

Just wait until it mutates and starts killing kids. Kids are currently the last to be vaccinated. I know this is morbid but this does not bode well but there is precedent. Spanish flu first only killed the elderly and then on its return killed young adults and kids disproportionately. Now the Spanish flu was influenza and this is coronavirus but this specific coronavirus should not be underestimated. I’ve said this f…

> I’ve said this from the beginning

Is that relevant and who are you?

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#163

Post by sokoloff »

dragonwriter wrote: post #140
zajio1am wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan (and some other countries) used phone surveillance location-tracking to enforce quarantines: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-taiwan... That is like using ankle bracelets for tracking people under quarantine, just worse.

> That is like using ankle bracelets for tracking people under quarantine, just worse. To the extent mandatory quarantines are justifiable, this method of enforcement seems reasonable and minimally invasive given the purpose. I don't see why it's worse than ankle bracelets.

Mandatory quarantines of those with a positive test result seems perfectly reasonable. Mandatory quarantines and/or continuous location monitoring of what should be free citizens does not strike me as in any way reasonable.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#164

Post by sokoloff »

mancerayder wrote: post #154

It's not too surprising to anyone following the events. Retroactive blood testing of donated blood should the original strain (the phrase original variant sounds like an oxymoron) having reached places like France and NY months earlier than we realized, certainly November if not September of 2018. The magic of the virus is its ability to travel and spread undetected due to asymptomatic carriers. At least now widespre…

> November if not September of 2018

Presumably you mean 2019?

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#165

Post by incrudible »

GuB-42 wrote: post #138
GregarianChild wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Copy Taiwan. No country has been dealing better with Covid than Taiwan. No lockdown, and > 200 days without new Covid case [1]. Taipei had daily direct flights from Wuhan, and the Diamond Princess mooring near Taipei. They told the world early on [2] how they did it. Summary: Border closure, contract tracing, testing and controlled quarantine for those testing positive . It's worth reading [2] to realise how swiftly,…

I often see "copy this country" but often, it is simply not possible, policies are usually a result of each country specificities more than the other way around. For Taiwan. - It is an island - It has an effective, well centralized surveillance network - It has (presumably) an obedient population, or at least, one that don't think personal freedom includes the right to spread the disease - They were well prepared tha…

Consider the countries like Japan that do not actually have excess mortality despite COVID-19. Suppose they just stopped testing for it. You would not be able to tell the difference. You could then come up with any reason for this “huge success”.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#166

Post by dragonwriter »

incrudible wrote: post #165
GuB-42 wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I often see "copy this country" but often, it is simply not possible, policies are usually a result of each country specificities more than the other way around. For Taiwan. - It is an island - It has an effective, well centralized surveillance network - It has (presumably) an obedient population, or at least, one that don't think personal freedom includes the right to spread the disease - They were well prepared tha…

Consider the countries like Japan that do not actually have excess mortality despite COVID-19. Suppose they just stopped testing for it. You would not be able to tell the difference. You could then come up with any reason for this “huge success”.

> Consider the countries like Japan that do not actually have excess mortality despite COVID-19. Suppose they just stopped testing for it. You would not be able to tell the difference.

That assumes that testing-dependent interventions (whether contact tracing and quarantines of the exposed, appropriate treatment of systematic infections, etc.) have nothing to do with the absence of excess deaths.

Which seems improbable.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#167

Post by rolph »

jliptzin wrote: post #160
klondike_ wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The lethality of a virus is inversely proportional to its transmissibility. In other words, a virus won't spread very far if it kills its host.

I don’t really understand why this is a “rule.” Say there’s two viruses and it takes both 3 weeks to run their course. They are both equally contagious during the 3 weeks, however the first virus results in death for 50% of those infected (50% recover after 3 weeks and are no longer contagious), and in the second the death rate is only 1% (99% recover after 3 weeks). Is such a virus not possible to exist?

the rule being discussed doesnt apply to a virus that reproduces and transmits to another host before causing illness.

the basis of the lethality and transmissibility are inversely related is dependent upon dead or ill hosts having down time and not interacting with other hosts. thus if you are sick and febrile, you contact fewer individuals thus less opportunity for virus transmission between individuals.

in the case of the coronavirus the dynamic is different. you contact the virus, virus replicates, and becomes transmissible, you still feel fine and behave as always transmitting the virus to other individuals, Then you begin to feel ill and bedridden. the virus has reproduced, transmitted and even if it kills you, it has escaped the selection pressure of the first case, where lethality or morbidity must be decreased for maximization of transmission.

here is a slightly difficult read but is is a classic example of the rule you are asking about.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myxomatosis

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#168

Post by maxerickson »

harimau777 wrote: post #151
howlgarnish wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sigh, this old canard again. Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Singapore are all doing fine without "locking people into their homes" and they're not islands. (Ok, Singapore technically is an island but it's connected to Malaysia by the world's busiest border crossing; and Thailand's grappling with a new outbreak now but it seems to be improving.)

Is it possible that they are all effectively islands? For example, it appears that Vietnam has miles of jungle between its major cities and neighboring countries. The same cannot be said for the US and Europe.

There's not a whole lot of evidence that illegal border crossings from Canada are a major driver of the spread in the US.

And of course, the same can be said for Mexico (because the main driver of the spread in the US is people not taking simple steps to prevent it).

Travel to Canada has been restricted for much of the year (I live in Michigan; there's a warning 4 hours from the border that travel is restricted). But that's because Canada isn't letting their fool neighbors in.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#169

Post by refurb »

howlgarnish wrote: post #113
starkd wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's because it's an island. All the islands are doing better than whole continents. You can't contain it unless you go full bore like the chinese - locking people into their homes.

Sigh, this old canard again. Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Singapore are all doing fine without "locking people into their homes" and they're not islands. (Ok, Singapore technically is an island but it's connected to Malaysia by the world's busiest border crossing; and Thailand's grappling with a new outbreak now but it seems to be improving.)

I have a friend in Vietnam. They were effectively locking people in their homes. If a Covid case was found in an apartment, the entire floor was locked down. If you didn't stay in your home, you were brought to a facility where you didn't have a choice in the matter.

And they are controlling it now by effectively locking down the country to the rest of the world. Even if you're a Vietnamese citizen you can't get back into the country without permission. And the gov't is denying permission in all but the most extreme circumstances.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#170

Post by breitling »

ketamine__ wrote: post #162
sjg007 wrote: post #152

Just wait until it mutates and starts killing kids. Kids are currently the last to be vaccinated. I know this is morbid but this does not bode well but there is precedent. Spanish flu first only killed the elderly and then on its return killed young adults and kids disproportionately. Now the Spanish flu was influenza and this is coronavirus but this specific coronavirus should not be underestimated. I’ve said this f…

> I’ve said this from the beginning Is that relevant and who are you?

It's just a figure of speech
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