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San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

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Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#161

Post by txsoftwaredev »

jeffbee wrote: post #95
sidibe wrote: post #61

I understand the sentiment, but I think it's pretty clear in retrospect hard lockdowns were the correct way to address this. This half-assed "wear a mask and social distance if you want" stance just made the economy sputter for a whole a year. I've seen this in France twice, where they've oscillated between doing nothing and doing a lot, a couple brief lockdowns can reverse things quickly even after things have gotte…

That's exactly right. The harm to the economy is not caused by the countermeasures, it is caused by the disease. If you don't beat the disease, you wreck the economy.

"Roughly 30,000 restaurants have already closed for good across the country, with more than 110,000 expected to shutter in the next month, according to estimates by the National Restaurant Association. ".

How did a virus cause businesses to close permanently? This doesn't happen during flu season or even with the h1n1 pandemic.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#162

Post by s1artibartfast »

jeffbee wrote: post #118
s1artibartfast wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not very helpful advice when you have to manage risk while trying to eat, work, live, and stay healthy. Stats certainly exist on where some of the 16,000+ cases in San Mateo were transmitted.

Exactly what information do you lack? If you are hungry eat at home. Work at home if possible. Exercise at home. "Live" is too vague to address.

You are substituting instructions for information. I lack information. For example:

Has anyone in San Mateo caught covid eating at a restaurant? How many?

Has anyone in San Mateo caught covid grocery shopping? How Many?

Has anyone in San Mateo Caught covid exercising outside? How many?

Has anyone in San Mateo Caught covid at school? How many?

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#163

Post by txsoftwaredev »

mike_d wrote: post #142
matz1 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by "correct" ? It is correct if you assume the hard lockdown doesn't have any downside. The lockdown is not necessary in the first place. In most places, hospital are not overloaded. Even in the event of overload, the correct measure should be to increase capacity, do not admit people with mild symptoms, etc. Case number are misleading, vast majority of the case are not actually sick or only have mil…

> In most places, hospital are not overloaded If you speak to any doctor or nurse they will disagree with you. While we might not be at a breaking point for number of beds, the staff that have to put themselves in harms way do have the option to just quit. When that starts happening in mass we are all screwed.

I spoke with a nurse while at gym I attend. She spoke about how the hospital she's at is not close to be overwhelmed. She also talked about she doesn't wear a mask outside of her job as they have training and n95 masks which work in a hospital setting. But outside of a hospital environment the masks provide little protection, especially cloth masks.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#164

Post by babesh »

ivankirigin wrote: post #8
cromwellian wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

East Palo Alto and San Jose could be either from pop-density, or from relative # of poor people.

And age, race, types of jobs, family structure, trust in authority, education, and probably more. San Carlos is white, rich, and old. East Palo Alto it not.

It is dense, multi family housing and having to work at jobs that expose you to other people. It isn’t directly race or age.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#165

Post by garmaine »

newusr1207 wrote: post #122
garmaine wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say it is not possible, but it absolutely is as it has happened. There are countries in this world which have had community spread and then stamped the virus out entirely, like Taiwan and New Zealand have. There are countries which have been in as bad a situation as we are (like Australia and South Korea) and then gotten their numbers down to the point where TW/NZ were at their peak. So there is a pathway from ra…

These countries you mention are vastly different in terms of population size and geography. Also, pretending that there are no costs associated with strict lockdowns is terribly flawed.

> These countries you mention are vastly different in terms of population size and geography.

Yes, South Korea and Australia span the gamut. So do Taiwan and New Zealand. The USA is somewhere in-between.

> Also, pretending that there are no costs associated with strict lockdowns is terribly flawed.

Those costs are largely suffered by this lockdown-reopen-lockdown cycle, without the benefit of getting rid of the disease. Indeed our trajectory is worse economically, because there's no light at the end of the tunnel.

Life in Taiwan and New Zealand goes on pretty much uninterrupted right now. We could have had that. We still could, if severe actions were taken.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#166

Post by txsoftwaredev »

olliej wrote: post #30
rlt wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For better or worse it’s simply not in America’s collective nature to obey authority on the scale you’re hoping for.

Especially when the party in control of the government spent months claiming that it was a hoax.

The one that quickly banned travel from China or the one that said to go visit China Town?

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#167

Post by babesh »

jacobolus wrote: post #33
teej wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but the other Bay Area counties have chosen to shut down way in advance of that.

Other Bay Area counties are seeing numbers skyrocket over the past 6 weeks, and want to act decisively now while they have the best chance to prevent a catastrophic outcome. In SF case counts have been doubling about every 2 weeks; we started from a low baseline (relative to most of the rest of the USA) but another few doublings and we’ll be in huge trouble. The state-level mandates are timed to be reactive instead o…

Stop putting it all on the federal government. It’s also state government’s fault. California only thinks in terms of lockdowns even after all these months. Also look at people’s personal behaviors. I saw more and more people walking around without masks recently. Downtown Burlingame was shockingly bad.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#168

Post by vmception »

sbuttgereit wrote: post #32

Reading this I was expecting the same knee-jerk, panic response that has become the "acceptable" public health response to the problem the pandemic places before us. While I detect a hint of futility in this statement, I am nonetheless deeply heartened to know some public health officials are themselves questioning some of the simplistic premises that have been driving policy to this point at all levels of government…

the bay area finds it easier to govern when nobody is doing anything.

they are using the pandemic as convenience to an extent. they don't have a holistic solution and they don't know what they are doing.

yes, it does keep case numbers lower and lagging.

the health official here is right though.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#169

Post by fermienrico »

Bahamut wrote: post #135
dehrmann wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe had hard lockdowns. Not China-hard, but pretty hard. Cases surged again. You mentioned Asia. I saw this headline today: "South Korea's Health Minister Describes Seoul As A 'COVID-19 War Zone'" By US standards, their case count is still incredibly low. The point is they haven't actually been able to contain it, either; they're just acting sooner and more aggressively for the second wave. Apparently New Zealand…

> What's scarier is that the Bay Area, with ubiquitous masks, good-ish weather, partial closures, and lower population wasn't even able to keep new cases down. I’d contest that characterization of the Bay Area - even in Santa Clara County where I live, I’ve not seen ubiquitous mask wearing.

I live in the bay area and it is 100% of every single person I've seen outside. I still haven't spotted anyone without a mask besides a runner or someone on a bicycle.

Re: San Mateo County Health Officer Statement on Bay Area Stay-at-Home Orders

#170

Post by bsder »

sbuttgereit wrote: post #32

Reading this I was expecting the same knee-jerk, panic response that has become the "acceptable" public health response to the problem the pandemic places before us. While I detect a hint of futility in this statement, I am nonetheless deeply heartened to know some public health officials are themselves questioning some of the simplistic premises that have been driving policy to this point at all levels of government…

Quoting the man, himself:

> I think people should stay at home, avoid all non-essential activities, wear masks, and not gather with anyone outside their households. I’ve been saying this for about 10 months now. If you didn’t listen to my (and many others) entreaties before, I don’t think you’ll likely change your behavior based on a new order.

I disagree with this wholeheartedly.

People are getting a LOT of pressure to see family right now. Strong messages from people in authority absolutely will cause some people to think more about this. It also gives them an external authority to appeal to when resisting peer pressure.

Yes, you're not going to get the dipshits.

However, being able to tell family, that you maybe didn't even want to see all that much anyway (a lot of people only do the extended family thing out of obligation at the holidays), that there is an "Official Order(tm)" to "Don't gather" helps.

This is similar to official "mask mandates". This helps because a store can now say "Sir, the city/county/state has issued official orders to wear masks and we will have to ask you to leave if you don't wear it." An official mandate gives the store political cover. It also gives the average citizen the ability to ask the store to kick someone out who is non-compliant.

The "Bully Pulpit" is a real thing.

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