Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response • Hacker News Board

Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

#161

Post by anoncake » Sun, Oct 11, 2020, 12:50 AM UTC

ardy42 wrote: post #19

umvi wrote: post #2

So, according to this paper 34.2-47.5% of US citizens need immunity before the pandemic can be declared over? So best case scenario we can achieve herd immunity with roughly 100M infections/recovered. USA is currently at ~8M infections/recovered, so that means we are roughly 8% of the way to herd immunity (best case). At the current rate of +50K infections per day, that's 20 days per 1M infections, so we need 20 days…

> At the current rate of +50K infections per day, that's 20 days per 1M infections, so we need 20 days * 92 = 5 years before we achieve herd immunity (best case, assuming no vaccines)? That doesn't seem right. I can't remember exactly where I heard it, but I believe robust herd immunity in human populations has never been achieved for a virus like this without the widespread use of a vaccine. Which makes sense, becau…

It technically didn't disappear, but mutating to the level of regular seasonal flu is almost as good.

Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

#162

Post by xadhominemx » Mon, Oct 12, 2020, 2:46 PM UTC

timr wrote: post #157

xadhominemx wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA as a whole is already at ~10-15% and the rate of infections increased since late summer, and we are not even in flu season

Just because the US average is X% doesn't mean that the every community in the whole country is X%. There's clearly heterogeneity in the data.

Ok but I assume that is taken into account in your 15-20% estimate

Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

#163

Post by guscost » Fri, Oct 16, 2020, 1:40 AM UTC

emodendroket wrote: post #148

casefields wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or a Pox Party: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pox_party Not that outrageous.

Who's stopping you from doing that? Pretty much all the restrictions are on the honor system so if you think that's a good idea go ahead.

The restrictions prevent me from buying a reasonable dose at the store. How am I supposed to do it, go around licking bus seats? I don’t know anyone positive in town, and asking in public forums has not gotten results.

Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

#164

Post by hcknwscommenter » Fri, Oct 16, 2020, 7:53 AM UTC

nradov wrote: post #140

hcknwscommenter wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The healthcare industry (and the CDC) and (almost?) every qualified expert is arguing that we are not doing enough testing. And we aren't. Part of the reason we are not doing enough testing is that we simply don't have the capacity and Dr.s' are being told that capacity is restricted and tests should be carefully considered on a case by case basis. The above is non-uniformly distributed in that there are some areas o…

If we had more testing capacity what would that change? What would it allow us to do that we aren't doing now? Japan did very little testing and has a relatively low death rate so far.

We could basically live a normal life with massive testing and tracing in place. Korea and Taiwan have strong testing and tracing measures and life there is basically back to pre-pandemic behaviors except you need to scan a code on your phone (to enable tracing if a later detected infection is traced to that location) before you enter a bar/restaurant/night club, etc. China had an outbreak in Qingdao (6 total cases), so they tested all 9 million people in 5 days. That's isn't even that hard to do.

Re: Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

#165

Post by emodendroket » Sun, Oct 18, 2020, 1:18 AM UTC

guscost wrote: post #163

emodendroket wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who's stopping you from doing that? Pretty much all the restrictions are on the honor system so if you think that's a good idea go ahead.

The restrictions prevent me from buying a reasonable dose at the store. How am I supposed to do it, go around licking bus seats? I don’t know anyone positive in town, and asking in public forums has not gotten results.

So you think that, like, 7/11 should be selling pure novel coronavirus? Not really the same idea as a pox party and seems like it has obvious downsides to just make that available to anyone.