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Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

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Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#161

Post by tolbish »

rabidrat wrote: post #142
wtracy wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. The FAANG crowd is used to pulling down $100k-$150k. Developer jobs that are advertised as remote from day one tend to be closer to $50k-$70k. (These numbers are based on a combination of rumors and job board postings, so no, I don't have a source to cite.)

Erm, in my experience (20 years, good but not a superstar) the numbers are 2x that. My last BigCo offer was $300k total comp and jobs with smaller companies (all remote) were around $120-150k. One startup offered me $190k to work remote (but I would have been the only remote worker). That said, I agree that your average non-FAANG job pays about half of FAANG. Although this is true regardless of remote-ness.

You are getting those offers because of your 20 years of experience, not because remote work is inherently lucrative. Most people with 10 or fewer years of experience are used to seeing remote-only offers of less than $100k.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#162

Post by asdff »

vmception wrote: post #22
ultimoo wrote: post #7

Right now, being a landlord in SF is looking pretty grim given that tech workers who used to rent are fleeing in droves and those that are not are negotiating their rents. I wonder whether this trend will reverse in the next 1-3 years or this is the new permanent dynamic of the SF rental market.

The midatlantic region is filled with cities that are carcasses of an industrial era that doesn't exist anymore. It's not "doom and gloom" to say that when there are examples of it happening before. San Francisco's tax base is leaving. What do you think is going to happen? Rent wise, San Francisco will just be Anytown, USA with a little bit of scarcity due to plethora of rent control and old tenants with grandfathere…

Doom and gloom was real in the mid atlantic when the factory left, and suddenly everyone had to move or be unemployed. People aren't getting fired in droves in SF. They are just a little bit unhappy with city living for a while, and are still gainfully employed. Uprooting their lives and leaving is an option afforded by having the funds to stay put or live like a king in half the continental U.S.. Plenty of people will stay put because for some people the hassle of moving out of your city and reestablishing your life elsewhere sucks more than riding out a pandemic in familiar waters. Completely different scenario than the contraction of the american steel industry, where peoople had to skip town if they wanted to put food on the table. Entirely different economic classes of workers. Not to mention a lot of the movement in the past from cities was also due to white flight.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#163

Post by asdff »

refurb wrote: post #31
nordsieck wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I wonder whether this trend will reverse in the next 1-3 years or this is the new permanent dynamic of the SF rental market. IMO, that's completely dependent on how much SF tech companies embrace remote work.

What confuses me is the home buying far outside urban areas. I understand that people will be working from home for 12 months, but buying a home an expensive transaction. If forced to go back to the office, these folks are looking at very long commute. I assume they: 1) know for sure they can wfh permanently, 2) are betting they will be able to wfh permanently or 3) are willing to quit when asked to come back to the…

The real answer is a lot of people tolerate an awful hour plus one way commute if it means having a bigger house in a better school district.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#164

Post by asdff »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #55
ipnon wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Housing density is not generally a problem outside of the United States. Developing economies seem to have no bias against dense housing. I think this is because there is no politically powerful land owning class outside of the United States. So it is in the interest of the majority to have an abundance of affordable housing. This protects against global warming too.

Housing density is definitely a problem outside of the United States. Many countries handle it in much the same way, while others handle it by shoving their working class into what's basically a human rights violation. I've seen discussions of Singapore's good housing policy, for example, that fail to mention the worker dormitories with 10 or 20 people per room. I certainly wouldn't claim the US has good housing poli…

Have you seen how the working class lives in the U.S.? It's honestly not much different than a developing country. Multiple families in a tiny apartment is common in places like LA. People hold full time jobs while going back home to a tent on the sidewalk. Tenement conditions are very real in the U.S., and invisible for the most part by anyone fortunate enough not to live in them.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#165

Post by asdff »

pbourke wrote: post #75
epistasis wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The picture of a house they show nestled in the trees is incredibly dangerous, incredibly resource intrnsive, and just ecologically unsound. We need to be building massive amounts of housing in city centers to let as many people live in them that would like to. Instead we lock down any new construction in cities, which requires the least amount of infrastructure and environmental damage, and instead let pretty much a…

> We need to be building massive amounts of housing in city centers to let as many people live in them that would like to. All else being equal, Americans will choose to live in a detached house on a 1/2 acre lot with an SUV or pickup in the driveway.

I'd argue the 90k or so living on the street in a tent or their car in LA will be happy with any room of their own with a lock and some real privacy. That sort of housing is popular for the people who can afford an SUV to go in the driveway, but there are people who can't even afford any sort of housing right now.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#166

Post by asdff »

iwonderwhy wrote: post #30

Curious what will happen to prices in these zoom towns once people return to office work? Wouldn't it be more prudent to shop around in areas where we know people will return in a year or two?

Probably depends whether or not there is a ski resort nearby to sustain property values. reasonably convenient lots to the resort would eventually all be infilled, at which point prices would surge exponentially. Otherwise it's an overpriced mountain lodge, and mountain lodge supply increases exponentially.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#167

Post by baskire »

dmode wrote: post #160
vmception wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't believe you are still trusting real estate agents and mortgage underwriters when half of the market signals are completely missing..... yes, to them it seems like a lot of business evictions and foreclosures have barely started in San Francisco and will be completely backlogged nationwide: a few hundred thousand people playing around with low interests rates, millions of people pending default like I said, sc…

I don't know what are data sources to look for real estate demand other than real estate transactions. Anyways, that's not the broader point I am making. The broader point I am making is that it was a thriving City with or without tech and continue to be one. The Golden Gate bridge, GG park, the ocean, the bay, the museums, the charming hills, and train cars is not going to vanish when all tech workers leave. I fell…

I actually think rent going down in sf will open up a lot of opportunities that wasn’t possible due to cost.

So much culture left sf to Oakland due to cost. As SF rent gets cheaper, I suspect we’ll see art, food, and activism jobs come back.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#168

Post by ponker »

I think the concept of a “Zoom town” is important vs a “Zoom hamlet.” It’s a lot easier to work with a remote 50 person engineering team than 50 remote engineers, because you can just interface with the head of the group and his/her direct reports. So I think long term 2nd tier cities will get engineering hubs but the fully remote concept will remain niche.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#169

Post by cjonas »

I live in western Wyoming and the market (which was already pretty bad) has been flooded by people trying to just get away from the city.

Winter will certainly spit the "softer" folks out, but it will be interesting to see what sticks.

To the point about making less for remote work... You don't need 200k to have a very high QOL in most these places (assuming you value an outdoor lifestyle).

I would personally take a 50% pay cut before I'd consider moving to the city for a 50% raise.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#170

Post by bowlich »

mjayhn wrote: post #124
ghaff wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rural broadband is certainly an issue generally. But a lot of people seem to be under the impression that as soon as you leave the city limits of a major city, you're in the wilds of Wyoming. Somewhere like Massachusetts, there are a ton of towns and smaller cities not called Boston that have broadband.

I didn't know it was a big thing in MA. But thanks for letting me know, I'll check it out. I hope to go back to the NE/E in the next few years (Maine/VT/MA). I tried to move to a small town this year, one that was woodsy and if possible in the mountains, AK, CO, WA, OR. My requirement was 100mb+ internet that didn't require me paying Spectrum $25k to cable another road. Honestly I would've been fine with DSL at a bun…

Might I ask what line of work you're in that 100mb+ would be a limiting factor?

I ask because I've been doing remote work web development for 9 years now on a 10mb DSL line, and honestly haven't really seen much any need to go faster. Not at least work-related requirements.

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