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536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

sciencemag.org

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Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#161

Post by pfdietz »

aksss wrote: post #146
pfdietz wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using renewables would be more cost effective, even up to 100% replacement of fossil fuels. Cost of storage does not change this conclusion.

There is zero chance of 100% replacement of fossil fuels with renewables. Zero. Without a Thanos solution. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkj_91IJVBk&list=WL&index=5&... EDIT: I mean, you guys are downvoting these comments, and I'm sorry to tell you things you don't want to hear, but would prefer that you respond with contrary information rather than downvoting. Happy to alter my views and engage in information shar…

You're simply wrong, and we will continue to tell you things YOU don't want to hear.

Replacing fossil fuels with renewables is altogether more practical and economical than doing so with a combination of new nuclear and renewables. This wasn't true even ten years ago, but the costs of renewables have fallen so fast that it's now the case. At the same time, the supposed "Nuclear Renaissance" was revealed to be an illusion. Nuclear is now a dead technology walking. And renewables (and associated technologies like batteries and electrolyzers) continue to show cost declines at a rate nuclear could only dream of.

BTW, summarize the argument in the video. I don't waste my time watching video links.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#162

Post by Someone »

yummypaint wrote: post #88
lgl wrote: post #62

The 2010 eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull [0] was a small sample of the perturbations that a volcanic event can have on day to day lives. And it was a relatively small eruption. Anything much larger than that will most likely have devastating effects on modern society on pretty much all levels and it's not really a matter of "if" but "when". Besides eruptions, many other scarier events can cause huge shifts on…

It's also a good reason to leave fossil fuels in the ground and not just extract them as quickly as possible wherever we find them. It seems conceivable that we could eventually find ourselves thermodynamically unable to recover after a catastrophy like a big solar flare. Unfortunately there is no way for anyone to make money by being responsible in this way. We are effectively draining our planetary rainy day fund a…

I would think the combination of windmills and wood supplies should almost always provide a (ssllooww) recovery path.

There will plenty of metals on the surface. Use the wood to melt iron. Use iron to make saws. Use saws to cut trees into beams and planks. Use beams and planks to build windmills. Use windmills to generate power and electricity. Etc.

Using coal and oil we went through the part from using mills for power to where we are now in about 250 years. On the one hand, if knowledge is retained, that can be sped up. On the other hand, it will be a lot harder to go through that process without coal and oil.

I would guess the net effect will be that it will take longer, as one of the effects of not having coal and oil will be lower yields in agriculture and, hence, a much smaller world population that also has to make a bigger effort to produce food.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#163

Post by simonh »

seph-reed wrote: post #158
aksss wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You kidding me? We're all getting the coke. Just because you're not Scarface doesn't avoid the fact that all of us are awash in plastics, silicone, rare earth metals, concrete, steel, precious metals, alloys, goods from far flung lands, industrial agriculture and many assumptions about available services that rely on the same and ravenous upstream fossil fuel consumption. We (as human consumers) never had it so good,…

EDIT: This post is angry. I say my words more clearly below. > living a better life today than someone of your station would have lived 300 years ago > We (as human consumers) never had it so good You couldn't possibly understand how much better community and and a sense purpose is to the life we're living. The fact that we become more and more isolated, more and more lied to, more and more defeated and yet: you thin…

It’s not either/or, you can have community with or without material goods. I do have community and a sense of purpose and a satisfying life with my family around me. Many don’t, but that has always been true at all times and all places through everything we know about the history of human life. You’re writing as though misery and suffering were recent inventions of Capitalism, previously unknown to mankind.

The fact is though we are all in the developed world swimming in material wealth and comfort unimaginable to most humans from even a few generations ago. Only an incredible abundance of cheap energy and raw materials make this possible.

Yes the very wealthy have yachts and helicopters, but if you have a reasonably up to date smartphone and laptop, a can of Coke or a Starbucks, maybe a PlayStation and a microwave oven, etc, there isn’t really much a billionaire can spend that will get them anything significantly better. The main advantage of wealth is getting other people to do things for you, but in terms of material life were in an incredibly democratic and egalitarian era.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#164

Post by ghaff »

grumple wrote: post #159
ghaff wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd just point out that keeping a year's worth of food for a rapid and unexpected event is nuclear bunker level prep. It also requires spending a lot of money and storage space on something that's going to have to be rotated out every few years. And while some things can last pretty much indefinitely, other things have shelf lifes and you're probably not going to use all those canned goods during normal times. So the…

You've got to buy things that you'll eat anyway - like canned beans, etc, and use them and replace them regularly.

I do not eat canned beans (other than baked beans) or canned vegetables generally. Most of the things I would buy for "prepping" would be just thrown out in a few years.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#165

Post by leetcrew »

pmiller2 wrote: post #100
leetcrew wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

on the other hand, commercial-sized TP works just as well and is readily available. it just won't fit on your nice TP holder. if this is what capitalism failing looks like, I'd say it's not so bad.

I didn’t say it was a failure of capitalism, merely a property. Had it become necessary to do so, yes, I would have either ordered some commercial TP, or bought a bidet. Now, if you want to talk about how we have zillions of brands of TP, but they’re all made by the same handful of companies (illusion of choice), I might argue that’s a failure mode of capitalism. #ShitYouCantSayOnHN

sorry, I've seen so many memes lately comparing US grocery stores to soviet bread lines that I read a bit of that sentiment into your comment.

it was a bit unsettling to see how much stuff was out of stock in the first few weeks of the crisis and wonder whether that was going to get better or worse. now the greatest hardship I face is having to settle for my second favorite brand of eggs sometimes. overall, I'm surprised at how resilient our system has turned out to be. despite the federal government totally dropping the ball, the individual states have more or less taken appropriate steps to handle their particular circumstances. I suspect we may be reopening a little early, but only time will tell.

also as an aside, there are certainly some positions that are very unpopular on HN. but if you post stuff like "#ShitYouCantSayOnHN", you will definitely get downvoted.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#166

Post by LukeEF »

I don't mean to be too precise, but the article is slightly undermined by the claim in the graphic that the 543 Justinian plague hurried the collapse of the eastern Roman Empire. The 'Eastern' Roman Empire fell in 1453 when the walls of Constantinople were breached by the Ottomans. Very difficult to claim that the Romans fell in the 6th Century. I mean nearly 500 years later Basil is rolling back into Syria on the back of repeated victories over the Bulgarians. Always feel let down by these sorts of overblown claims that are easy to slap into an info-graphic.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#167

Post by alliao »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #155
chrisco255 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Forecasting volcanoes is a lot like forecasting earthquakes, it's really difficult to do and often there's very little warning, maybe a couple of days at most, but sometimes comes with no warning at all. The White Island volcano killed several people last year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Whakaari_/_White_Island_e... This place was a famous tourist destination. One of my favorite sites for tracking Volcanic er…

The White Island eruption was forecasted though. It's just that tourists kept going there regardless.

whoa any forecast reports? I think the tourists are suing the tourism companies right now

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#168

Post by unFou »

pfdietz wrote: post #161
aksss wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is zero chance of 100% replacement of fossil fuels with renewables. Zero. Without a Thanos solution. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkj_91IJVBk&list=WL&index=5&... EDIT: I mean, you guys are downvoting these comments, and I'm sorry to tell you things you don't want to hear, but would prefer that you respond with contrary information rather than downvoting. Happy to alter my views and engage in information shar…

You're simply wrong, and we will continue to tell you things YOU don't want to hear. Replacing fossil fuels with renewables is altogether more practical and economical than doing so with a combination of new nuclear and renewables. This wasn't true even ten years ago, but the costs of renewables have fallen so fast that it's now the case. At the same time, the supposed "Nuclear Renaissance" was revealed to be an illu…

I'm not sure whether nuclear is better, and renewables definitely is a good thing to have in the mix. But comparing the carbon emissions of Germany and France, and the cost of electricity in both countries would suggest that at least currently, renewables without nuclear isn't as effective for supplying our power needs as renewables with nuclear.

If I've misunderstood this somewhere, I would love to learn more.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#169

Post by koheripbal »

asdff wrote: post #154
runarberg wrote: post #148

Two things strike me as odd in this article: > 536 Icelandic volcano erupts, dimming the sun for 18 months I’m not aware of any evidence that the 536 eruption happened in Iceland. Ash has been found in both Antarctica and Greenland indicating that the eruption was probably much closer to the equator[1]. > 541–543 The “Justinian” bubonic plague spreads through the Mediterranean, killing 35%–55% of the population and s…

Historical consensus favors the plague as quite significant, even if the city of constantinople managed to survive independently for several more centuries. The weakened mediterranian presented opportunities for the gothic tribes to take territory in gaul and italy in the decades following, and the economy nor the manpower of the empire never recovered. By the fall, Constantinople was a hollow shell of what it was, c…

You are way way way oversimplifying nearly 1000 years of history between the plague of Justinian and the fall of Constantinople.

The Justinian expansion was untenable. If you look at it on the map - there are strong enemies on literally all sides. It was a desperate but hopeless attempt to regain the Western Empire.

The plague made it worse - but was hardly the catalyst. ...and the East Roman Empire was far more than a city state for a majority of the remaining NINE centuries.

Re: 536 was ‘the worst year to be alive’ (2018)

#170

Post by pmiller2 »

leetcrew wrote: post #165
pmiller2 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn’t say it was a failure of capitalism, merely a property. Had it become necessary to do so, yes, I would have either ordered some commercial TP, or bought a bidet. Now, if you want to talk about how we have zillions of brands of TP, but they’re all made by the same handful of companies (illusion of choice), I might argue that’s a failure mode of capitalism. #ShitYouCantSayOnHN

sorry, I've seen so many memes lately comparing US grocery stores to soviet bread lines that I read a bit of that sentiment into your comment. it was a bit unsettling to see how much stuff was out of stock in the first few weeks of the crisis and wonder whether that was going to get better or worse. now the greatest hardship I face is having to settle for my second favorite brand of eggs sometimes. overall, I'm surpr…

I'm actually surprised there wasn't more supply chain disruption. Cleaning supplies, meat, TP, cold medicine (initially), disinfectants of any sort, canned goods, rice, dry beans, baking supplies, thermometers, masks, and gloves are the major things I noticed had gone "missing." My girlfriend and I could have certainly survived by modifying our diet and, as I mentioned, possibly buying a bidet.

But, we are both fortunate to still have jobs, and places to store a small stockpile of these things. I literally was able to turn a spare closet into a dry pantry by putting a wire shelving unit in there. We still have basically a lifetime supply of rice, and a nice selection of staple canned goods, just in case things go further south. We were not real particular about brands. We have access to Amazon and Costco. We will be fine.

This was nowhere near Soviet bread line status. In the Soviet Union, perhaps you had to stand in line for bread, but, at least there was bread. Here, we let some people go without bread, because they're drug addicts, mentally unstable, or just don't want to have religion pushed on them.

I'm sure this also falls into #ShitYouCantSayOnHN, and I don't care about the downvotes. I know you can't say anything against the free market or capitalism and expect to win any points here. That mildly annoys me, but I'd rather have my gray comment out there for other people to see, and sacrifice a couple of fake internet points to do it. I win enough points back in technical discussions that I'm in no danger of losing my downvoting, flagging, or vouching capabilities, so it literally does not matter to me; I've net gained 12 points just today. I'd rather draw the lightning rod to myself so people can see how rabid free-market capitalists don't even bother to argue a point, instead mashing that down arrow.

People dismiss socialist perspectives here without even comment, which is sad. They don't even give the ideas the consideration that those who claim socialists are all economically illiterate 14 year olds in their mothers' basements do. They ignore that Albert Einstein, Stephen Hawking, and other prominent intellectuals espouse socialist philosophies.

Honestly, I'd be pleased to get downvotes, if there was any actual discussion, but that's appararently verboten here.

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