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Tribalism comes for pandemic science

thenewatlantis.com

161–170 of 211 posts

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#161
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean isolation of vulnerable while letting infections elsewhere raise to saturation. No (non-micro state) country has gotten close to saturation/herd immunity yet.

I'm not sure if you're trying to refute my post or support it, but your comment certainly supports my point. No country has gotten close to saturation/herd immunity yet, and it would be economically ruinous (and not uniformly so) to maintain current quarantine measures until we get there.

I’m saying there is no one to learn from, no one did that strategy yet. The UK almost did.

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we could just convince the hoaxers that wearing masks in public is not emasculating, and convince the doomers that we need to flatten the curve rather than attempt to completely contain the virus, we could go back to something bordering on normal life pretty quickly while we waited for vaccines to come along and kill off the virus altogether. And then we would be prepared to react to the next pandemic, too.

In my state the virus has killed less than 2,000 people with a population of 27 million and hospitalization rates continue to plummet in spite of lifted restrictions weeks ago. The problem I have with all arbitrary Covid rules is that they're not based on any objective criteria. For example, if we were rational, we would base policy entirely on local hospital capacity and hospitalization count (the original impetus f…

That's exactly the strategy that Washington state is following. We even have a dashboard where can see the indicators, and they are things like infection rates per day per capita over 7 days, hospitilization rates.

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has largely _not_ been a Federal response, this has largely been in the hands of the States, at least in regards to setting the policies. State epidemiologists are currently more "powerful" than the CDC in most states, so blaming the response on who is in majority control of the Federal government is short-sighted. Yes, the (lack of) organized Federal response influenced the severity of the issue in the early da…

In my state we have leaders looking at data on county and zip code levels, and assigning "stages" to counties that affect how open the businesses can be, based off of how stable their numbers are looking. What's it like in yours?

That sounds like what we are doing in Wa state. It's too early to know how it will pan out.

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#164
post #31
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Sweden it's the opposite: the right wants lockdown and the left opposes it.

Just goes to show you how insidious partisanship is. It's clearly not about liberty or policy principals, but rather whatever solution one party puts forward, the other has no choice but to oppose it. One of my favorite pet daydreams is trying to figure out a way of abolishing political parties altogether...

It's a nice dream, but I would settle for having more than 2 political parties. Then at least we could break out of the "are you with Us or are you with Them" dichotomy.

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#165

This is so very disheartening. I will speak only for the United States, as I am not familiar enough with other countries to comment. Not only is this impacting nearly every single person in the country, it is ruining the financial situation of over 40m people, primarily concentrated within the most financially vulnerable. This is because leaders on the left and right have refused to respond to new data, and are worki…

Political realism is about optics. If the Democrats back down on their egregious lockdowns they'll look even more disorganized than they did in the primaries so it's not worth the risk when the progressive arm of the party is still throwing a tantrum and Biden is struggling to unify the party. On the other side, many Republican states have constituencies that see COVID as a matter of personal responsibility and which…

The democrats are not in control of the country, they are in control of a few states but there's a lot of different ideas gonig around. No one would say NY would be better off if they hadn't cut it down a lot and shut down. Washington state is another place that looked like it was going to get out of control but the shutdown moved us from worst in the us to a much smaller impact than originally feared.

Now look at Texas where their daily positive covid 19 detection has double in the past weeks from about 750 a day to 1500 a day. They are going to have a lot more people getting really sick, because that just following from daily exposure. See https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/ (go to daily new cases in texas, click on 7 day average). You can se e the same data at rt.live (find Teaxs, click on per day).

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#166
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO, it is pretty easy to see why an extrapolation is faulty. Let us look at two different reasons: 1. Density. China and South Korea are far more dense than most of the western world. Seoul has a density of 42,000 per square mile. New York City, the densest city in the US, has a density of 23,000 per square mile. The next top 10 most populous cities in the USA have an average density of 5,000 per square mile. Over h…

What you're saying makes sense, thank you. I'm wondering though, are you saying it because the study did indeed fail to account for all those factors or are you basing it my (probably poor) interpretation/description of it? :-) If you're going off my comments, I may have done a disservice as my laypersons understanding of the topic is pretty rudimentary. FWIW, the study does indeed model other countries like the US a…

Hey,

Not sure if you are comfortable with R or Python, but you can look at the code here: https://codeocean.com/capsule/1887579/tree/v1

They do not seem to be taking cultural or demographic information into account. A lot of the data is sourced from the Johns Hopkins data set and fed into an SRI type model, with some data about when and how strict lockdowns where.

It is actually pretty sloppy to be given so much weight.

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that you’re very wrong that the lack of a coordinated response by the Federal government was only an issue “in the early days”. I think the ongoing lack of Federal action (and particular economic support) has more or less trapped us into a long-term poor and fragmented state-by-state “whack-a-mole” strategy. The fact that CFR has dropped a bit does not mean there won’t be major second waves that flow back and…

We are arguing over two different things. I am arguing the direct response to the virus. How the lockdowns were implemented, where and for who. I agree that the federal response was bad all over, and now it is most obvious in the lack of financial assistance to both individuals and states. Please keep in mind also, that for states that are not in (NY, NJ, CA, MI, LA) there hasn't been a _first wave_. We need to keep…

I don’t actually think we disagree that much. The problem is that we were supposed to use our early lockdowns in the “high cases” states (NY/NJ/CA) to control the epidemic and bring it down to manageable levels. At least in NY/NJ this seems to have worked. We were supposed to use our lockdowns in the “low cases” states to bring the caseload down near zero. This has not really worked that well, largely because the lockdowns were poorly implemented, and because states ended them before they had really crushed community spread to a level where testing and tracing could work.

Now there’s superficial (early) evidence that many of the low-cases states are entering a second stage of exponential growth. There may not be much room for us to simply manage the caseload at some “acceptable level” if those states really catch fire. The problem is that the only tool we have to manage this — if indeed it bears out and hospitals become overwhelmed - is another lockdown. But the lockdowns have become a political hot potato, and at least one side is dead-set against them. It seems unlikely that we’ll be able to use this tool again until things get Very Bad.

Compare this to most of continental Europe, where both high-case and low-case nations have succeeded with lockdowns, and governments are moving into a phase where careful management is likely to control the epidemic entirely going forward.

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#168
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

in a world where losing a job can be just as disastrous to one's health as disease, you really don't think their opinions are valid whatsoever? not everyone has large savings or the ability to work from home.

maybe the economist can advise on how we do not have a world where losing a job has any kind of health effects? Its really that simple. Its the concept of "people over profits".

I also want that world, but we don't currently live there :)

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#169

There's almost certainly a lot of safe opening up we could do. What would make it dramatically safer would be pro-social behavior from people on the right. The protesters are all wearing masks and doing their best to maintain social distance outside of the actions. They calculate that it is worth the risk. Time will tell, but the calculus isn't merely do the protests increase the spread? but also will they achieve po…

> The protesters are all wearing masks Really? I keep seeing people saying this. It’s laughably false. Here is the governor of MI at a protest that breaks her own rules about social distancing and protests, directly between two men without masks. (Just one high profile example.) https://mobile.twitter.com/TPCarney/status/12689028204108431...

Been to a major one, and a very, very high percentage of the people there wore masks, enough that it was consistently odd to see people without them. Also people trying as much as possible to keep a little space between each other. Who wasn't wearing masks, consistently? White male police (the National Guard was all masked). Doubt me if you want. Obviously a rhetorical "all" and very easy to find photographic counterexamples. But certainly most.

Re: Tribalism comes for pandemic science

#170
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In fairness, the right has been pretty consistent about tailoring the response according to risk—i.e., those who are at risk should isolate and everyone else should resume work. They happened to be right in this regard. The left has also made exceptions in their “lockdown everything” policy, specifically with regard to their own protests (and the response of pandemic experts is a particularly interesting case study o…

No country has successfully done isolation of vulnerable, while there are many countries that have successfully eradicated or at least brought it to extremely low levels. With cheaper testing, pooled testing protocols, etc. we could potentially test every household in the US every couple of weeks for less than we spend on auto insurance.

You can do both. Iceland isolated their older population quite well.
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