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Federal Reserve balance sheet trends

federalreserve.gov

161–170 of 266 posts

Re: Federal Reserve balance sheet trends

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is inaccurate; most economists think we're most likely to see deflation over the next several months as demand collapses. Considering the position of the dollar, a "monetary implosion" like you're describing is still exceedingly unlikely.

Most economists also thought we had banished volatility, until 2008 happened. I wouldn’t put too much trust in that expert class given their track record.

"Most economists" never believed that. Lots of people in finance did, sure, but they're not economists.

Re: Federal Reserve balance sheet trends

#162
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's complicated. Hyperinflation occurs generally when the banking system's regulation is gets out of control and goes into a lending/money creation spiral. That can happen very quickly - within several month. All things considered what's more likely to happen at the moment though is a monetary implosion, as massive debt defaults occur destroying the money in the banking system. Which is why people are muttering abou…

You can print money indefinitely and not cause inflation as long as there is an equal demand for what you're printing. USD demand is very high globally and domestically right now. Let's hope that doesn't change over night.

The worry isn't demand dropping over night, since in that case the Fed could just sell the assets it's been buying. The worry is that the value of the Fed's assets will drop overnight.

Re: Federal Reserve balance sheet trends

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's really not a good way to address blanket statements. Just referring to nebulous "smart people" adds nothing. It doesn't need a detailed rebuttal. Here are some examples of reasonable responses: - How do you know that? - When in history did that happen? - Could you be more specific? None of those require more than one sentence, or implying that the person is too stupid to have an opinion.

Sorry, let me be clear: by "smart people" I mean economists who have spent their lives studying monetary and fiscal policy and analyzing how it can be used to make the world a better place. Not sure why the onus is on me to be "reasonable" in my response when we all agree that the person I was replying to was making an entirely unreasonable assertion.

>I mean economists who have spent their lives studying monetary and fiscal policy and analyzing how it can be used to make the world a better place.

This means nothing when they haven't been held accountable for bad predictions. I work in finance, and it's super easy to build a model that looks like it can predict the future, but fails completely when applied in practice, due to some statistical/modelling error. Predicting the future is damn hard; it's way easier for us to convince ourselves that a model is correct than to actuallly produce a correct model, so if somebody isn't subject to a constant process of feedback (a scientific process) it's very unlikely they're producing correct models. Crystal healers have also spent their lives trying to determine how crystals can be used to make the world a better place; it doesn't mean squat because they don't apply the scientific method in their research.

From an economic perspective, if these people really had models that could predict the future, they'd be traders, not economists. Because why settle for a meagre economist's salary when they could be making millions?

Re: Federal Reserve balance sheet trends

#164
post #62

What matters isn't the size of the Fed's balance sheet or what it contains. The Fed's balance sheet is "invisible" to the private-sector economy. This expansion of their balance sheet is simply a reflection of the stimulus we're doing. When the Fed expands their balance sheet, what they're doing is replacing private-sector assets with liquid cash. Given that the stimulus is appropriate for the economy, this is all fi…

"Given that the stimulus is appropriate for the economy, this is all fine." Very casually assumptive, but ok, let's go with it... "It's not anything that future generations have to "pay back. And it's not going to cause a collapse of the dollar." If this is true, then what's the catch? What then are the adverse affects of the Fed printing money? Does it not inadvertently devalue the dollar? Why not double, triple, or…

> If this is true, then what's the catch? What then are the adverse affects of the Fed printing money? Does it not inadvertently devalue the dollar? Why not double, triple, or quadruple the "stimulus" if it is, as you claim, appropriate and without any noted trade-offs??

This is a good question. The answer is that the virus and lockdown are currently causing lots of deflation. So the Fed needs to cause lots of inflation to cancel it out. But if they did four times more then that would be too much and would cause inflation to be far too high.

Personally I suspect the the Fed has undershot and we'll see net deflation over this year and the next.

Re: Federal Reserve balance sheet trends

#165
post #62

What matters isn't the size of the Fed's balance sheet or what it contains. The Fed's balance sheet is "invisible" to the private-sector economy. This expansion of their balance sheet is simply a reflection of the stimulus we're doing. When the Fed expands their balance sheet, what they're doing is replacing private-sector assets with liquid cash. Given that the stimulus is appropriate for the economy, this is all fi…

This is a pretty naive take. You are suggesting that all these trillions are somehow ending up in the hands of people when the primary effect has been to prop up asset prices e.g. the stock, mortgage, and corporate bond markets.

The second order consequences of a massive balance sheet will be felt not in the immediate future but at some point down the line when the Fed attempts to shrink the balance sheet.

We have a very recent example of the Fed trying to do exactly that in late 2018, and the market immediately crashed on rate increases and assets rolling off at maturity.

Re: Federal Reserve balance sheet trends

#166
With a sample size of 1 based on 2008 you'd probably never expect the total to be back below $5 trillion, in the same way it barely got back below $2 trillion after that first spike. Based just on the graph it's probably more likely to go above $10 trillion than below $5 trillion in the next few years. These numbers are completely ridiculous to think about, how would you interpret this in practice?

Re: Federal Reserve balance sheet trends

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, let me be clear: by "smart people" I mean economists who have spent their lives studying monetary and fiscal policy and analyzing how it can be used to make the world a better place. Not sure why the onus is on me to be "reasonable" in my response when we all agree that the person I was replying to was making an entirely unreasonable assertion.

>I mean economists who have spent their lives studying monetary and fiscal policy and analyzing how it can be used to make the world a better place. This means nothing when they haven't been held accountable for bad predictions. I work in finance, and it's super easy to build a model that looks like it can predict the future, but fails completely when applied in practice, due to some statistical/modelling error. Pred…

I'm not sure what your point is? The comment I was replying to said "we know this is always true" I said, actually, economists aren't really sure about that issue. If your concern is that economists aren't good at making certain predictions, then guess what, we agree. Economists are also acutely aware of this fact and most of the ones involved in actual economic research are careful not to overstate the implications of their models.

Regardless, I simply have to laugh at your comment. The "finance bro says economists are all morons who would be traders if they actually knew anything" trope is pretty great!

Re: Federal Reserve balance sheet trends

#168
post #43

The federal reserve owns half of all US debt. We are paying interest on interest to our own Fed that serves as the banking systems perpetual bailout fund with the ability to create unlimited amounts of money.

Is it true that the fed is privately owned and if so does it matter or not really

It is a false dichotomy, that assumes owners of an organization are required.

There are several kinds of orphan entities, such as trusts, foundations and more.

In the USA at the national level, only Congress is able to incorporate businesses, and they do this in one-off charters, Act by Act. So it was incorporated by a public body - Congress - while the wording of its charter leaves it very autonomous and orphaned. It is not owned by the public, it is not owned by the private sector. Simultaneously, Congress created another public body called the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, which is owned by the public, and interfaces between the autonomous orphan entity and the public. It is the one with the appointed Chair, who occasionally reports to Congressional committees.

Congress can amend the charter of both organizations at any time. They don't and it is a line they do not cross. The alternative is the politicisation of monetary policy, which is a heavy distraction for Congress, far more than fiscal policy. It didn't work well before the autonomous central banks and other better alternatives haven't been presented.

To further complicate things - in the minds of those perturbed by the Federal Reserve's role in this country - the Act allows for collaboration with private banks as shareholders, with a 6% dividend. Yes, banks have been earning 6% dividends from their shares of the Federal Reserve for a century. These shares do not convey voting rights. This was to encourage participation in the Federal Reserve system, and any new system would need to be extremely competitive and enticing to encourage banks to participate in that instead. For context, think about America in 1913 when the Act was passed. Banks existed and had their own payment networks all around the country, and the Federal Government wasn't in the business of this at all. The idea of inherent fealty to whatever the US Government represented simply did not exist, the idea of an omnipotent US Government didn't exist. Impressionable children were not taught this in schools and bankers then and now obtain better benefits from not thinking this way. Instead, America was a burgeoning society, that recently got bailed out by JP Morgan himself, now trying to get into finance. It had better be very convincing to the banks!

Like any orphan entity like a foundation or trust, there are people that control it together, in accordance and restrained by the charter. The Federal Reserve is a system, controlled by regional directors who are selected/elected. In each region:

Three directors are selected by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System to represent the public. These directors must reside and conduct business or other activities in the District. They represent the interests of labor, consumers, commerce, manufacturing or agriculture. They may not own stock or serve as a director of financial institutions.

Six directors are elected to the board by the Bank's shareholders, which are the member banks in the District. Of those six directors, three are representatives of the District's banks, and three represent the public (like those selected by the Board of Governors). The three elected public directors may not serve as a director, officer or employee of a financial institution.

Yes, the System is able to purchase certain kinds of securities (or whatever Congress allows, such as the new amendments for direct money to citizens as in the stimulus packages) and whoever it buys from now has newly created money that is diluting the money supply. The System is also able to trade the securities it has purchased for existing money. It is interested in not causing rampant inflation, but this is an inherent possibility, but it is fortunate that it has inherited a larger economy than the rest of the world, and there are people willing to accept its dollars and it just selling them into liquidity keeping the dollar's relative purchasing power amongst other currencies steady.

Re: Federal Reserve balance sheet trends

#169
post #92

One of the biggest things confusing people about how public finance works is that everyone is focused on the Fed rather than the Treasury. A good aspect of MMT is that it explains how the Treasury spending more than it takes in in taxes means more money is created into the economy than is deleted out of the economy. This is the more important thing to focus on. Some of the MMT professors also do a good job explaining…

> A good aspect of MMT is that it explains how the Treasury spending more than it takes in in taxes means more money is created into the economy than is deleted out of the economy. This is the more important thing to focus on. This is one of the most absurd claims of the supposedly "descriptive" MMT. Taxation does not delete money from the economy. When the federal government collects taxes, it doesn't take that mone…

>>"This is one of the most absurd claims of the supposedly "descriptive" MMT. Taxation does not delete money from the economy. When the federal government collects taxes, it doesn't take that money and burn it in a giant pit. It turns around and immediately spends that money."

I didn't know that idea was so polemic.

So, what you are saying is that government deficits are inflationary because they add money to the economy, but, on the other hand, government surplus don't retire money from the economy?

>>"This is completely false. The Fed creates new reserves (base money) in order to buy assets."

Yes, but the assets the Fed buy (when practicing QE) are in the accounts of the commercial banks in the Fed. After buying them, those assets are not there anymore, and, instead there is money (1). And money is basically a government bond that pay 0% interest.

1 - http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=661

Re: Federal Reserve balance sheet trends

#170
post #67
post #62

What matters isn't the size of the Fed's balance sheet or what it contains. The Fed's balance sheet is "invisible" to the private-sector economy. This expansion of their balance sheet is simply a reflection of the stimulus we're doing. When the Fed expands their balance sheet, what they're doing is replacing private-sector assets with liquid cash. Given that the stimulus is appropriate for the economy, this is all fi…

>When the Fed expands their balance sheet, what they're doing is replacing private-sector assets with liquid cash. Given that the stimulus is appropriate for the economy, this is all fine. It's not anything that future generations have to "pay back." And it's not going to cause a collapse of the dollar. This is simply not true. The Fed is buying assets at a premium (otherwise counterparties wouldn't sell the assets t…

> The only way this ends is either a depression the scales of which we've never seen in history before (which would liquidate and clear out bad businesses), or a hyperinflationary collapse of the U.S. dollar whereby more and more money is injected to prop everything up.

Uh, the latter is not a distinct option from the former.

Also, you've left out: “the government continues as it has for generations, occasionally bailing out out wide sectors of the economy in black swan events with wide impact but mostly letting businesses big and small that are not prudent fail while cushioning some of the impacts of that failure with bankruptcy (both regular rule-based bankruptcy and similar, ad hoc restructuring in special cases; the latter is often also referred to as a ‘bailout’, but is meaningfully distinct from other bailouts.)”

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