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An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

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Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#161

Post by btilly »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #123
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're being a bit too accommodating. McKenzie does have a flair for the dramatic; he did the same thing with Tether where there really was no reason he couldn't just say what he thought when he thought it. At the same time, yeah, it seems very plausible that a white guy in Japan announcing the Japanese pandemic response is run by fools would face blowback for it.

>At the same time, yeah, it seems very plausible that a white guy in Japan announcing the Japanese pandemic response is run by fools would face blowback for it. Haha, yeah pretty much that. And any blowback may also have been directed at his employer, Stripe. So there was certainly cause for caution. That said, I don't think recognizing in late March that this virus spreads faster and is harder to control than previo…

That said, I don't think recognizing in late March that this virus spreads faster and is harder to control than previous similar ones was much of a leap of insight, and the article does seem a little too self-congratulatory over that.

He made it amply clear to me that it wasn't much of a leap of insight, and the point of his original essay was to create proof that he knew that at the time.

The fact that taking the action that he did resulted in a group of people who put together a compelling enough argument with good enough connections to get the New York Times to write about it DOES seem like it is worthwhile.

As it turned out, having the New York Times asking whether the emperor had clothes caused lots of people in Japan to ask the right question which in turn caused the government to switch courses. The fact that this happened again underscores the point that, on publicly available data at that time, it didn't take an amazing leap of insight to understand that the Japanese story didn't add up.

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#162

Post by btilly »

TheCoelacanth wrote: post #131
XorNot wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exponential growth means fully half of the present population occurred in the last growth cycle (presuming R0 ~ 2). With a mean time to symptoms of 14 days, depending on what Japan is doing, 10 days is an age (though it's worth noting that severe respiratory symptoms set in in week 3).

14 days is, I believe, the estimated 99th percentile for incubation time, not the mean. Mean is more like 5 or 6 days.

The normal range of each phase is described in https://patient.info/news-and-features/coronavirus-how-quick...

The average is 5-6 days to show any symptoms. That is the figure that you are remembering.

If it is going to turn severe, the average to develop severe shortness of breath from first symptoms is another 7-10 days. Which means that the range from exposure to severe shortness of breath is 12-16 days...or an average of 14 days.

Which is exactly what the person that you were responding to said. So your memory was correct in so far as it went, but you were remembering the wrong fact about COVID-19.

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#163

Post by btilly »

garmaine wrote: post #160
twic wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was very much not my understanding. Do you have a proper technical source for that? I don't, and i wish i did!

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028 TL;DR contact tracing shows numerous cases of asymptomatic people that have introduced the disease to people near them.

There is a world of difference between "asymptomatic people are infectious" and "asymptomatic people are AS infectious".

I saw early estimates based on detailed modeling from Chinese data that asymptomatic people were about half as infectious as symptomatic ones. I have not seen any such estimates for some time though, nor ones based on more recent data samples.

Given the widespread distrust of the Chinese reporting on what happened in January, and the fact that estimates of how infectious this is have approximately doubled from early estimates, I don't trust that early reporting. I would also love to see an estimate of how much more or less people are infectious when they are asymptomatic.

Given that I don't doubt that they can be infectious, research showing that they can be is not answering the question that I have.

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#164

Post by jldugger »

aikinai wrote: post #48
jldugger wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably because you could end up losing your visa and get sued by the Olympic Committee if you say 'Shinzo Abe is suppressing covid-19 research because of the Olympics.' Maybe even jail time.

That's not how Japanese immigration or prosecution work. What law or immigration requirement would he be breaking? Also, tons of people have been saying that for months, both native and foreign.

> That's not how Japanese immigration or prosecution work

Please enlighten us. How does public defamation work in Japan then? I don't know much but I did just google it right now[0] and to my layman eyes it looks bad:

> “(1) A person who defames another by alleging facts in public shall, regardless of whether such facts are true or false, be punished by imprisonment with or without work for not more than three (3) years or a fine of not more than 500,000 yen.”

[0]: https://kellywarnerlaw.com/japan-defamation-laws/

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#165

Post by HackOfAllTrades »

ForHackernews wrote: post #51
kspacewalk2 wrote: post #2

>We project a true count of over 500,000 infections, including more than 5,000 severe cases, and a breakdown in provision of care (“overshoot”) in Nagoya, Osaka, and Tokyo, before the end of April. The current count is ~21,000 with the number of confirmed daily cases declining for 6 days straight, from 741 to 338 yesterday. So... not only wrong on the numbers themselves, but also on the scale, trajectory and impact o…

Yeah, I don't understand at all what the purpose of publishing this hash was supposed to be. Is it just to be able to say "I told you so!" (or in this case, I didn't tell you so, but I really did think this) at some later date? > In a world where I was wrong, people who trust me professionally would likely think less of me. That was an acceptable risk. Yeah, what a hero taking an extremely slight risk to his reputati…

"I don't understand at all what the purpose of publishing this hash.."

The author was explicit: "sending up a flare", hoping "someone would read between the lines".

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#166

Post by SamReidHughes »

abduhl wrote: post #149
tptacek wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Patrick's entire narrative is sourced from facts generated by experts. His own contributions appear to involve statistical literacy, deep conversance with Japanese language and culture, the ability to locate and comprehend "open source" government documents, and the initiative to do something with those capabilities. We're not asked to take Patrick's word on whether HCQ is an effective treatment or whether procedure…

While I appreciate what you're trying to say here, your point is orthogonal to the discussion. The original comment was about the tone of patio11's post and the assertion that an anonymous white paper significantly altered policy decisions of one of the world's most technologically, scientifically, and academically advanced countries. The response the original commenter got from barry-cotter was to "shut up and liste…

> Even his attempts below to walk back his position or re-frame his post as being somehow tongue-in-cheek fail basic logic checks

It was very obvious to me that it was tongue-in-cheek.

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#167

Post by p0ckets »

aikinai wrote: post #101
tptacek wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have direct knowledge of how Japanese official process works in practice, could you relate it along with this observation? Because a thing not in much doubt on HN is that Patrick does have some significant experience with it.

Sure happy to share. I guess most people would be surprised, but Japan has very straightforward and easy immigration if you meet the right conditions, of which Patrick is a shoe-in. He probably already has permanent residency, but if not, he could either be on a work visa or a spousal visa. None of those are going to get rejected because he did some amateur pandemic modeling. Assuming someone at immigration would tak…

I think your anecdote only shows how much discretion the immigration department has in enforcing the law. That same discretion could easily go the other way if someone were to embarrass Japanese authorities.

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#169

Post by SkyMarshal »

btilly wrote: post #161
SkyMarshal wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>At the same time, yeah, it seems very plausible that a white guy in Japan announcing the Japanese pandemic response is run by fools would face blowback for it. Haha, yeah pretty much that. And any blowback may also have been directed at his employer, Stripe. So there was certainly cause for caution. That said, I don't think recognizing in late March that this virus spreads faster and is harder to control than previo…

That said, I don't think recognizing in late March that this virus spreads faster and is harder to control than previous similar ones was much of a leap of insight, and the article does seem a little too self-congratulatory over that. He made it amply clear to me that it wasn't much of a leap of insight, and the point of his original essay was to create proof that he knew that at the time. The fact that taking the ac…

That is cool if it got the NYT to publish it, and in turn got a national government to upgrade their outbreak response.

>The fact that this happened again

What do you mean by "again" in this sentence? What was the first time?

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#170

Post by SkyMarshal »

barry-cotter wrote: post #146
SkyMarshal wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>At the same time, yeah, it seems very plausible that a white guy in Japan announcing the Japanese pandemic response is run by fools would face blowback for it. Haha, yeah pretty much that. And any blowback may also have been directed at his employer, Stripe. So there was certainly cause for caution. That said, I don't think recognizing in late March that this virus spreads faster and is harder to control than previo…

> That said, I don't think recognizing in late March that this virus spreads faster and is harder to control than previous similar ones was much of a leap of insight, and the article does seem a little too self-congratulatory over that. Having that realization back in January is evidence of foresight, but late March not so much. If this had been obvious to the Japanese authorities in late March they would have declar…

Don't know why you were being downvoted, your comment seems reasonable, have an upvote.
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