Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#161

Post by arbitrage » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 1:58 PM UTC

themagician wrote: post #124

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #31

Unemployment benefits have been significantly expanded under the Coronavirus aid bill. The benefit amounts will sound small if you're living in an expensive city like SF or Seattle, but $600/week from the federal government and a similar amount from state unemployment insurance means that unemployment benefits can pay up to an equivalent of $50-60K/year right now. That goes a long way in most parts of the country, es…

In many places being unemployed pays more than being employed. Not sure why the downvotes. It’s literally true for the first time ever. The way the new benefits work out your unemployment check STARTS at the equivalent of $15/hr x 40hr/week = $600/wk. In California, for example, you can get up to $1,050/wk instead of the old maximum of $450/wk.

Go ahead and name them, please?

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#162

Post by dewy » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 1:59 PM UTC

take_a_breath wrote: post #122

aluminussoma wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What will the employees, in the US at least, do for health insurance? A pandemic is when you need it. These employees will be strained to pay for COBRA. I fear that we will see revolutions in countries where this is not contained, from either a health or economic perspective. An old saying is that you should buy stocks when there is blood in the streets. I hope that doesn't become literal.

In an ideal scenario, we would re-open the ACA enrollment to provide reasonably priced health insurance. Unfortunately, our current administration doesn't want to do that. [1] ==The Trump administration has decided against reopening Obamacare enrollment to uninsured Americans during the coronavirus pandemic, defying calls from health insurers and Democrats to create a special sign-up window amid the health crisis.==…

This exaggerates the problem. You can enroll in ACA outside of open-enrollment if you have a qualifying event, such as losing coverage through a job. You just have to submit paperwork that you lost a job.

I'm not saying open-enrollment wouldn't be preferable, or that the administration might not be trying to encourage people to enroll, but the option is still open for many, in theory.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#163

Post by RIMR » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 1:59 PM UTC

aluminussoma wrote: post #48

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #31

Unemployment benefits have been significantly expanded under the Coronavirus aid bill. The benefit amounts will sound small if you're living in an expensive city like SF or Seattle, but $600/week from the federal government and a similar amount from state unemployment insurance means that unemployment benefits can pay up to an equivalent of $50-60K/year right now. That goes a long way in most parts of the country, es…

What will the employees, in the US at least, do for health insurance? A pandemic is when you need it. These employees will be strained to pay for COBRA. I fear that we will see revolutions in countries where this is not contained, from either a health or economic perspective. An old saying is that you should buy stocks when there is blood in the streets. I hope that doesn't become literal.

You fear a revolution towards healthcare, housing, food, etc. as human rights?

Personally that revolution can't come fast enough. This country has betrayed its constitutional duties to its people for decades (supporting the general welfare, anyone?).

We NEED revolution at this point since it seems both of our two parties are on the same side when it comes to Working Class America.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#164

Post by chasd00 » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 2:00 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #93

TeMPOraL wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any speculations on how bad is this going to get? Should I stock up on TP, on food, or on vodka and ammo?

While many people will likely get very sick, they only stay that way for ~2-6 weeks. Further, around half of people below 50 will show minimal if any symptoms. So, while most non essential jobs are shut down we are likely to see a surplus of labor in terms of trucking etc. My guess is plenty of essential jobs will have heavy overtime while many people are unemployed. Simply because the disruptions are going to cascad…

"The economic impact is largely going to be a question of how much do we shut down to save lives?"

i think about that a lot. I have so much respect for the task force setup to work on this, but man, i'm glad i'm not on it.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#165

Post by treyfitty » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 2:00 PM UTC

leetrout wrote: post #119

treyfitty wrote: post #92

For those living in cities that are locked down, what do yall do about daycare? In NYC, my daycare isn't reimbursing fees, so we're continuing to be charged with a promise of "if insurance pays out, we'll pass it down." With 2 kids, that’s $5,000. Assuming they’re closed for 3 months total, that’s $15,000 down the drain. Now, I get that they're a small business, but their problem is that they can't exactly layoff the…

Our daycare here in NC has now stopped charging fees and I assume laid off / furloughed some staff because of it. I've not heard of them getting assistance but I've not researched it either. They had not decided to do that out of the gate and we were OK with still paying because my wife and I were still being paid and the employees at the daycare work very hard. I'm sure it's higher in NYC but at ~$750 / month averag…

I’m paying $2,500 per month per child (I have 2) in NYC so that’s $5,000 down the drain. And that’s considered cheap.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#166

Post by themagician » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 2:01 PM UTC

swalsh wrote: post #35

I've seen a lot of small businesses do the math, and realize that with the additional $600 provided by the stimulus bill, it actually works out better for some lower paid workers to lay them off (and presumably rehire later). I wonder if this might explain higher than expected numbers.

We just did that yesterday. It actually works out better for a lot of people. The break even point in California is around $25/hr. If you made under $25/hr it pays more to be unemployed. For some people who were part time at $15/hr or less they will actually see paychecks double. And you no longer have to even be looking for work to keep getting the money, at least through July 31.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#167

Post by Chathamization » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 2:01 PM UTC

faet wrote: post #121

ihm wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Already most Americans support Medicare for all – it’s our bought elected officials who don’t.

eh. Most Americans support a public option. M4A is down to about 26% support as of yesterday. https://i.imgur.com/H9bAwV9.png

55% in the latest Morning Consult poll[1]. And this is after a heavy push from the healthcare industry against it, as well as strong opposition from all of the Republican leadership and most of the Democratic leadership. Before the recent blitz against it, polling was 70%[2].

[1] https://morningconsult.com/2020/04/01/medicare-for-all-coron... [2] https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/403248-poll-seventy-pe...

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#168

Post by makomk » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 2:01 PM UTC

dante_dev wrote: post #87

adrianN wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It kills 1% if ICU care is available. It kills a lot more if the healthcare system is overwhelmed. Look at Spain or Italy. Case fatality rate is around 10%. Letting it run its course it needs to infect 60-70% of the population before herd immunity kicks in. 1% of 60% of the population of the US is 2 million people. World-wide you're looking at 45 million people for a very optimistic scenario. The numbers could easily…

In Italy you see 10% mortality because Italy tests only (really) sick people. It's really likely that millions of italians have covid. This is not really demonstrable at the moment, but still https://www.wantedinrome.com/news/coronavirus-report-six-mil... Italy is treating every single patient with high standard healthcare. They did not reach the "0 free ICUs" moment yet. What we can say as of today is that the high…

The US media reporting has also been terrible. CNN even noticed that a lack of testing was correlated with a higher reported percentage of deaths... and then went and concluded that the reason for this was that more testing caused fewer people to be infected, even though this wouldn't directly affect the mortality rate and there was other evidence indicating that the lack of testing had screwed with the denominator in the calculation.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#169

Post by op03 » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 2:02 PM UTC

stupandaus wrote: post #2

Building on my analysis from last week: 1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks. 3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental j…

Is there a state wise breakdown?

I would guess NYC is contributing a big chunk, and if things turn around there in a month or two should be okay.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#170

Post by kevstev » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 2:02 PM UTC

treyfitty wrote: post #92

For those living in cities that are locked down, what do yall do about daycare? In NYC, my daycare isn't reimbursing fees, so we're continuing to be charged with a promise of "if insurance pays out, we'll pass it down." With 2 kids, that’s $5,000. Assuming they’re closed for 3 months total, that’s $15,000 down the drain. Now, I get that they're a small business, but their problem is that they can't exactly layoff the…

I don't understand- they are not providing the service but also not reimbursing fees? That makes zero sense to me- do you pay monthly, and ahead of time?