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Federal Reserve pledges asset purchases with no limit to support markets

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Re: Federal Reserve pledges asset purchases with no limit to support markets

#161
A major change that's gone at least partly unreported: since 2008 we have made the final steps toward a fully backstopped market. The market before was always somewhat backstopped, but now I think it's safe to say that everything big is backstopped.

That means we've moved toward a financial system with one single point of failure at the top. It's got quite a lot of mass and weight, but if it fails everything else does. This is not dissimilar from the Chinese model, which means America is now (perhaps unintentionally) copying China.

This also means short sellers should beware: even if you are nominally correct, the market may defy your logic because something else is backstopping everything.

Re: Federal Reserve pledges asset purchases with no limit to support markets

#162
post #54

How does injecting money solve a problem that’s not caused by lack of money? This market downturn isn’t a lack of liquidity, or a lack of money, or toxic assets like the mortgage backed securities. People aren’t going to stores, restaurants, and airlines because of SARS-CoV-2, not a lack of credit or money. Printing money isn’t going to create customers for businesses effected by this pandemic.

Current problem is that money right now will be evaporating when loans default. The financial system is built on itself so that loans create money. It does not expect to come to a grinding halt. If it does, loans aren't repaid, and money literally disappears. Deleveraging occurs. Wealth disappears. I think the aim is that we don't lose money from defaults over the short term.

Issuing loans is risky, and the price of borrowing should reflect actual risk. The US economy is moving to a more and more highly leveraged scenario where all firms avoid worrying about systemic risk because it's profitable to do so since they know they will be bailed out when the inevitable occurs.

Re: Federal Reserve pledges asset purchases with no limit to support markets

#163
post #9

Keep in mind they're only able to buy US treasuries and mortgage backed securities. If Congress changes the rules to allow the Fed to purchase stocks, we'll be in for some very interesting times. It could be that we get an economy of zombie companies, or valuations soar beyond what we've come to expect as normal. In any case, this is unprecedented and in my opinion not the right move. They're sacrificing our future i…

From the article: "The Fed will be moving for the first time into corporate bonds, purchasing the investment-grade securities in primary and secondary markets and through exchange-traded funds."

Re: Federal Reserve pledges asset purchases with no limit to support markets

#164

I fail to understand why any economist would prefer QE over helicopter money. Give everyone a check. If they need it to purchase everyday goods and services, great. If their everyday needs are fulfilled already, they will invest that money into stocks, bonds, treasuries, etc, adding the needed liquidity to the market. I understand if you're against the idea of giving people money. But this is just giving money to mos…

QE is revenue neutral or positive. They buy an asset with created cash, and sell it later for a small profit. Helicopter money is revenue negative and the created cash cannot be recovered.

QE is revenue neutral in theory just like helicopter money along with taxing that same amount back on a future date is revenue neutral in theory. In practice it is more like "buy $4 trillion worth of assets with created cash and never be able to sell it for fear of creating a liquidity crisis": https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL.

Re: Federal Reserve pledges asset purchases with no limit to support markets

#165
post #54

How does injecting money solve a problem that’s not caused by lack of money? This market downturn isn’t a lack of liquidity, or a lack of money, or toxic assets like the mortgage backed securities. People aren’t going to stores, restaurants, and airlines because of SARS-CoV-2, not a lack of credit or money. Printing money isn’t going to create customers for businesses effected by this pandemic.

Current problem is that money right now will be evaporating when loans default. The financial system is built on itself so that loans create money. It does not expect to come to a grinding halt. If it does, loans aren't repaid, and money literally disappears. Deleveraging occurs. Wealth disappears. I think the aim is that we don't lose money from defaults over the short term.

If the government wanted to so decree, they could decree banks could not forclose on bankrupt customers and must restructure loans. They've already done that for rent and mortgage agreements in many areas where people are hard hit by this. That would stop the loss of money right there.

The market is demanding liquidity to be able to manuver an uncertain future; this has caused an effective collapse of the credit market due to demand. Much like there's no TP on the shelf, there's no credit on the shelf; the fed however can print a lot of money if it wants to which ironically enough, can then be invested to print TP. If everyone has cash in the bank account, they feel secure, and that in of itself will stop the stock market from collapsing further.

The way they avoid inflation is by providing loans at a rate under the rate of inflation; free money, but it has to be paid back and over a reasonable term. This will expand the amount of money in the economy for a time.

History will remember this as is a perfect storm; the medical industry has been a tremendous burden on government and employers backs in the form of an unscrupulous blackbox of spend. A couple million deaths especially of elderly patients is going to upend the medical industries cash cow and at the same time force a hard look at what the industry is doing to be prepared for pandemics like this one. If you have cash going into this downturn, now's the time to start plotting where you are going to invest it for maximal gains.

Re: Federal Reserve pledges asset purchases with no limit to support markets

#166
It seems like at some point you have to let a wound bleed. If we keep bailing out bad investments every black swan event, you're never allowing for a correction. Eventually the accumulated amount of bad business would be too much for the gov't to save. To borrow from biology, it seems like we're constantly interfering in the process of autophagy.

Unfortunately there's no political capital to be saved with such a decision.

Re: Federal Reserve pledges asset purchases with no limit to support markets

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because: 1. Nobody would buy them. 2. Small biz doesn't have access to corporate paper markets, even in the best of times.

How does the current Fed strategy help small business right now? If anything, it seems like this strategy will leave larger companies in a position to soak up those small businesses' market share when this is all over.

Indirectly, by avoiding a liquidity crunch.

Specific direct aid is called fiscal policy, and would have to be enacted by Congress (or possibly to a limited extent by the executive): reduced taxes, direct payments or credits, loan guarantees, government spending, other economic policy.

The Fed's tools are monetary policy, and manipulate the overall money supply. That's a powerful, but limited, power.

Re: Federal Reserve pledges asset purchases with no limit to support markets

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the banks periodically need a bailout, shouldn't bankers be paid like civil servants? (because that's what they are, apparently)

No banks need a bailout. In fact that banks are now required to act so super safe is part of what is driving the rapid decline. As corporate bonds get more risky banks are not allowed to hold as much of them. Triggering sales, which increases the risk, and thus triggers more sales. Banks are fine, it is the corporations which need to re-issue bonds that are going to hit a wall.

Banks are fine as long as they aren't holding the debt of companies that hit the wall. It's a bailout.

Re: Federal Reserve pledges asset purchases with no limit to support markets

#169
post #4

So the Federal Reserve is admitting to a Martingale strategy. Interestingly they’re the one entity on the planet that can pull it off at scale. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

It's not going to work much longer. We've already seen the Fed make moves that are significantly beyond what it did in 2008, and since 2008 firms have been aware this would happen and have been less risk-averse as a result.

Creative destruction is nearly absent as an engine for growth in the US economy, and we are all suffering from the lack of innovation that would otherwise occur.

Re: Federal Reserve pledges asset purchases with no limit to support markets

#170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is absolutely not not the only country that can use monetary expansion without causing excess inflation. Basically any country with its own central bank, fully flexible exchange rates, with all Government bonds denominated in its own currency, with a decently large and productive economy, and federal taxing and spending can do it. There are at least several who meet that criteria (even New Zealand, for example…

> A big part of what happened in Zimbabwe, by the way, was that land reforms caused a massive collapse in food production (a major part of their economy) and unemployment skyrocketed. They spent a lot in response Okay. Fed officials are predicting 30% unemployment, and we're seeing a massive collapse in goods and services production (not food, but it may as well be in a 70% services based economy) as cities go into l…

Here is why the situation in the U.S. does not nearly perfectly mirror Zimbabwe. One word: confidence. People have far more confidence in the dollar than they do Zimbabwe's currency. As the global financial system is currently setup losing confidence in the dollar is highly unlikely. You might lose confidence in the dollar and buy gold and I might do the same but we aren't the people whose confidence the dollar's value relies upon.

I'm not an economist but as far as I understand these things we won't get hyperinflation as long as there is confidence in the dollar as a currency.

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