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Is It a Pandemic Yet?

nytimes.com

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Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#161

Post by oefrha »

SkyBelow wrote: post #154
oefrha wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The seasonal flu alone kills half a million people every year. So any mild disease that is as contagious and barely twice as fatal will kill 1 million That’s assuming no containment effort, like with seasonal flu. Of course, it’s gonna happen if health authorities take the same defeatist attitude as you and do nothing.

>Of course, it’s gonna happen if health authorities take the same defeatist attitude as you and do nothing. I'm a bit confused. Isn't expecting it to be devastating the very attitude needed for authorities to justify engaging in the containment methods needed to reduce the harm caused?

I would say if authorities don’t act it could kill a million or more. Which is very different from gp’s argument that it will kill a million or more regardless.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#162

Post by blisterpeanuts »

wffurr wrote: post #148
blisterpeanuts wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[edited to change linked article] Fortunately we know a lot more about viruses today than we did in 1918. The virus has already been mapped genetically, and many labs around the world are hard at work on an anti-viral treatment. We shouldn't get complacent of course, but it's likely that this thing can be contained and treated eventually. I read today about a device[1] from Israel that helps the lungs quickly clear p…

That link has a really obnoxious popup banner for a political poll. Can you use one that is just the news, please? e.g. https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/New-Israeli-invention-u...

Thanks, I've updated my link to the one you supplied. My Brave browser doesn't show the banner.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#163

Post by topkai22 »

ducttape12 wrote: post #76

Can someone explain to me why coronavirus is getting so much coverage? According to Wikipedia, Coronavirus has killed about 2000 people. Each year smoking kills 480,000 people in the US. In two days smoking will have killed more people in the US than coronavirus has worldwide. Shouldn't we have headlines about this every day? Or any of the other far more deadly things (traffic accidents, heart disease, suicide, etc.)…

For why we are collectively concerned about a good comparison is influenza (flu), which kills millions worldwide each year and has a case fatality rate of around 0.1%. I believe flu is the single deadliest pathogen worldwide currently.

Covid-19 appears to be extremely virulent and at least as lethal if not several orders of magnitude more so than influenza.

The immediate reason why is Covid-19 is getting so much attention compared to flu in the news media is that it is new. However, some of the reason why it’s getting so much attention from public health officials is that

1) it’s not well understood yet, and the upper bounds currently on virulence and lethality are very high

2) it appears virulent enough that it could become endemic in humans, meaning that we could be dealing with annual epidemics like the flu.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#164

Post by oefrha »

smelterdemon wrote: post #156
oefrha wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The seasonal flu alone kills half a million people every year. So any mild disease that is as contagious and barely twice as fatal will kill 1 million That’s assuming no containment effort, like with seasonal flu. Of course, it’s gonna happen if health authorities take the same defeatist attitude as you and do nothing.

Seasonal flu does have containment efforts - vaccination

Prevention and containment are related but not exactly the same.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#165

Post by pier25 »

cletus wrote: post #73

So Italy having an arguably uncontained cluster is probably the most troubling part. The EU has extremely porous borders. The chances of this spreading to the other EU members (and the UK) got a lot higher. At least in the US you largely have to come in by air. Yes of course there are land borders. Canada is one but fits the same description of most cross-border travel (apart from to the US) is by air. The border wit…

> The border with Mexico is... probably more of an issue.

AFAIK there are no confirmed cases in Mexico. It wouldn't surprise me if that was because of the inability of the government to detect it.

I live in Mexico and I believe if it gets here it will be unstoppable. The government doesn't have the resources China has to contain and track infected people.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#166

Post by empath75 »

JulianMorrison wrote: post #29
James_Henry wrote: post #20

> And what should each of us do, beyond staying informed and washing our hands frequently? Keep calm and rational. It might be worth stocking some reserve of critical medications, for example — but not too much, because hoarding could create shortages. > We, as individuals, can also try to plan for basic contingencies. Companies can cross-train key staff members so that one person’s absence won’t derail the business.…

You don't need to stock up if you can get food delivered. They can leave the delivery on the doorstep.

What about the people that made the food you got delivered.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#167

Post by vatueil »

wonderwonder wrote: post #53
ropiwqefjnpoa wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I stopped worrying a few weeks back after I saw the mortality rate. It's basically a highly virulent flu with the same risk factors. Not on the same level as sars and the like.

Mortality rate is 3.2% for COVID-19, 0.05% for the flu. That is a massive difference. That means that for every 100,000 people that get the coronvirus COVID-19, 3,200 will die vs 50 for the flu. Sars was a coronavirus just like COVID-19. While Sars did indeed have a higher mortality rate than COVID-19, far more people have died from COVID-19 to date than during the entirety of the SARS run. Edited: as my math was wro…

> 3,200 will die vs 500 for the flu

Assuming the fatality rates are as given (3.2% versus 0.05%), that would be 3200 vs 50.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#168

Post by pmoriarty »

blisterpeanuts wrote: post #132
mrb wrote: post #95

I will probably be downvoted for saying this, but... The seasonal flu alone kills half a million people every year. So any mild disease that is as contagious and barely twice as fatal will kill 1 million. And that's what's going to happen with COVID19. It is far more severe than the flu. We know COVID19 is as contagious, given how fast it's spreading and how unstoppable it is (R0>2, asymptomatic transmission, airborn…

[edited to change linked article] Fortunately we know a lot more about viruses today than we did in 1918. The virus has already been mapped genetically, and many labs around the world are hard at work on an anti-viral treatment. We shouldn't get complacent of course, but it's likely that this thing can be contained and treated eventually. I read today about a device[1] from Israel that helps the lungs quickly clear p…

A vaccine is at least a year or two away from going through all the testing and approval it has to go through before it's ready to be deployed on a mass level... if one that's safe and effective is actually found at all.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#169

Post by dom96 »

mrb wrote: post #95

I will probably be downvoted for saying this, but... The seasonal flu alone kills half a million people every year. So any mild disease that is as contagious and barely twice as fatal will kill 1 million. And that's what's going to happen with COVID19. It is far more severe than the flu. We know COVID19 is as contagious, given how fast it's spreading and how unstoppable it is (R0>2, asymptomatic transmission, airborn…

> And keep in mind the IFR, unlike the CFR, is the metric that takes into account undetected mild cases.

Interesting, this is always my argument against these fatality ratio estimates, can you explain how the IFR can take undetected mild cases into account? Does it just assume at random how many of those cases exist?

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#170

Post by WillPostForFood »

ducttape12 wrote: post #116
wonderwonder wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has the ability to affect the global economy in ways that the others dont. If people don't want to go to work due to an increased risk of mortality, business will shut down. If everyone is forced to go to work and they all get sick and are unable to work for several weeks, business shuts down. Finally if everyone gets sick and 3% of your workforce then dies, that again causes massive economic disruption. This is a…

But couldn't the same thing apply to traffic deaths? In 2018, in the US, over 36,000 people died in car accidents. That's higher than coronavirus deaths, so logically shouldn't we all stay off the roads and quit going to work? Wouldn't that have the same impact? Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-autos-traffic-deaths-...

It is disingenuous to compare last years total traffic deaths to total coronavirus BEFORE coronavirus has spread. The coronavirus deaths haven't happened yet.

If I told you due to a newly discovered automotive manufacturing defect, 2% of cars would explode and kill the occupants, and 20% of drivers would be hospitalized in serious condition, that wouldn't be worthy of being on the front page of every newspaper?

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