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Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

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Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#161

Post by todd8 »

corporate_shi11 wrote: post #100
psychometry wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Greener, but also regressive and generally playing catch-up to progress. Texas ranks in the bottom half of states on most quality-of-life rankings.

"progress" Is that why net immigration to Texas is positive? On what quality of life metrics does Texas rank poorly?

Texas is a really big and diverse state. There are very large remote areas, for example, with poor access to medical care and the schools in some areas may not be up to national averages.

However, I presume that you will not be choosing to move to a rural county. Houston has the worlds largest medical center and the neighborhood where I live has some of the best public schools in the country.

The web sites and newspapers that rank cities do so by using some sort of strange linear combination of factors, like so many points for having four distinct seasons and so many points for having professional sports teams and so many negative points for having more police per capita, etc.

I think that the best way to judge location attractiveness is to look at how people vote with their feet. The states that have a net gain in population have been judged to be better places to live.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#162

Post by Glyptodon »

I find it interesting that Illinois and New York's leavers seem to have much more income banding with respect to destinations than California's, which in turn seems to at least partially be related to Californians not going to Florida.

My first instinct is to assume that well-off-ish retirees in Illinois and New York retire to Florida, while in California they just stay in California. (Though other possibilities exist: for example, California leavers could be in two groups for most of the exit states, and so happen to average incomes out more than for Illinois or New York.)

I also find it interesting that the income-destination pairs of leavers for those two states seems like they might indicate potential easy presumptions about general political and socioeconomic status compared to California. Curious if there's actual data backing supporting these obvious presumptions.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#163

Post by altoidaltoid »

davidw wrote: post #139
harimau777 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's fair to assume without evidence that existing homeowner are "crotchety neighbors". It's quite possible that they have legitimate concerns that, and would support new construction if their concerns were addressed.

Go to public hearings. Their demands are almost never reasonable. New housing should never add any traffic ever, and it should look fantastic (with different people differing on what this means) and it shouldn't have children because there's no way the schools could cope with the "massive increase", and it should have enough parking to handle the entire extended family at Thanksgiving (in a severely land-constrained…

I would recommend looking into Katherine Levine Einstein's research on the concept of "Neighborhood Defenders".

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#164

Post by tmh79 »

m_ke wrote: post #81
jedberg wrote: post #55

Every person I know who's left California did it because of housing costs (except for one, who did it to get away from "the damn liberal government that wants to take my guns"). We have a major housing cost crisis in this state, as well as a big NIMBY problem. There have been good solutions run up through the state house, that either fail to pass or get so watered down they are no longer effective, in large part beca…

All of the people I know who left NYC also left because of housing costs, even though New York has been putting up new housing at an insane rate. https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/mortgages/migration-study/

NY has not been putting up housing at an insane rate. Housing in NY is actually being constructed at one of the lowest rates in the last century. Adjusted for business cycles (we're in a peak now), NY is building less housing than they have build in ~100 years, and Manhattan is at its lowest density since the 1890s. The current period is only a "boom" relative to 2009-2012 when basically no new housing was constructed.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#165

Post by harimau777 »

jedberg wrote: post #146
harimau777 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What gets built next to someone's home can affect their quality of life (e.g. due to noise, pollution, increased traffic, blocking sunlight, blocking views, etc.). So I don't see why they shouldn't have a say. It's no different than any other negative externality.

Their say is their ability to move away. Neighborhoods change. The irony is that when they moved in, their neighbors were complaining about all the change happening. Here in Cupertino, everyone says, "this should all be single family homes!". If you look at the old newspapers from the 30s and 40s, everyone was saying, "We should remain farmland!". Why is it that the people who built the single family homes happen to…

I think that's reasonable.

The issue that I would see is a situation where the new construction causes property value to drop and therefore the original residents cannot afford to sell their homes and move to a neighborhood similar to the one before the construction. If they cannot afford to move away then its really not a meaningful say.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#166

Post by formerchamp »

SF and NYC in a nutshell: High taxes to fund entitlement programs like "affordable housing" and the homeless industrious complex, high regulations that only allow mega corps to succeed, landlord unfriendly laws so no chances taken on good borderline tenants, and no firearms for law abiding citizens so criminals are emboldened.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#167

Post by jandrewrogers »

gamblor956 wrote: post #6
tardo99 wrote: post #3

I live in California. An interesting thing we learned is that if we move out of the country for, say, 3 years, unless we set up our lives so we have no intention of remaining California residents, the state will continue to pursue us for income taxes even while overseas. Federal law has a different system which makes more sense -- a tax exemption while overseas. Given that we expect to spend a substantial amount of t…

This is a misunderstanding of how CA tax law works. If you move to say, Nevada, before moving to China or wherever, but you always intended to return to CA afterwards, then for state tax purposes you never stopped being a CA resident. So, for example, if you keep a storage locker with your furniture in Cupertino for when you return, you clearly never intended to permanently leave and so you're still a CA resident for…

In my experience, California still tries to claim tax residency based on owning a house there (on the basis that it is not a rental in this case), despite moving out of State a decade prior and visiting infrequently. It doesn't matter if you own a house, have a job, and all the other accoutrements of a life in another State, they'll still harass you about paying income tax. Even if you are staying in the country but in another State, it still might be a good idea to dispose of all CA-based property.

When it comes to taxes, California has a serious stalker vibe.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#168

Post by iron0013 »

One thing I’ve noticed is that expatriates from blue states tend to bring their politics with them when they move. Denver’s influx of out-of-staters was a big part of why Colorado moved from purple to solid blue, and now the same thing is happening in TX as folks flock to Austin and Houston, GA as the black diaspora returns to Atlanta, and NC as the Research Triangle booms. Heck, even Utah’s starting to look more purplish thanks to its tech industry (and the CA imports that inevitably come along with it). It’s going to be exciting to see what happens when Texas reaches its tipping point.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#169

Post by bproven »

Ididntdothis wrote: post #59
dfsegoat wrote: post #4

Sonoma County, CA here. We've lost more people from our county than any other in the state between 2017-2018 [1], and it is only continuing. From the few of these people I have spoken with - anecdotally: - None left because of the fire risk, specifically. [though some obviously did - 2] - Most left because of the cost of living: $600k avg home price. - Some also left because of political and human environment: We hav…

I work remotely but just moved to Sonoma county because my partner got a job here. The house prices are really insane. Seems most people here are either rich retirees or people whose families have lived here for a long time and made a ton of money with real estate bought before prices exploded. I don’t see any jobs here that would even remotely justify the house prices. It’s a beautiful area but the economy is pretty…

>Seems most people here are either rich retirees or people whose families have lived here for a long time and made a ton of money with real estate bought before prices exploded

Yep - I lived there between 2015-2017 and this about sums it up.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#170

Post by snickerbockers »

glofish wrote: post #42

Considering that Florida is slowly but surely going underwater it is weird to see it as the most popular destination to move to.

That's a very long-term outlook. Unless you own beachfront property, it won't be happening in your lifetime.
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