Every time roads or cars got improved people used the extra time to live further from work. Its oddly similar to the way every time computers and networks got faster we used it to make development easier. Perhaps if we design a crappy car (like a phone is a crappy computer) we will see more efficient implementation. The sum of collective desires doesn't always make sense.
A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
161–170 of 205 posts
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#162Earlier quoted context omitted.
We're not talking about rideshares, we're talking about autonomous personal vehicles. Most people are not likely to give up their personal vehicles; they'll just have self-driving ones.
This seems like an odd argument to me: "enabling efficiency isn't useful if you assume people's habits won't adapt to the new status quo". Once you've moved personal vehicle use of the sort you describe from essential to luxury, I don't see why you couldn't make users bear the cost of their frivolous externalities.
I don't want to depend on a taxi. I have to drive to work NOW.
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#163Earlier quoted context omitted.
”The cars would no longer be an expression of personality and a status symbol” You’re not the only one claiming that, but I don’t think it automatically follows. People can currently afford to buy cars for themselves, so unless self-driving cars will be (much) more expensive, people still would be able to afford them. So, in this case, the question is what else, if anything, people would want to use their money on in…
When you use X and then a substitute Y arrives that is 10x cheaper and more convenient, you'll switch to it. Using robotaxi network will be much cheaper than total cost of owning a car, mostly because cars are dramatically underutilized. On average a car is used 1-2 hrs a day out of 12-16 hrs it could be used as a robotaxi. To start off we have 5-7x price difference. Then most use is not shared. Assuming robotaxis wi…
I bought my car at 2000miles for $8000. It now has 100000 miles after 5 years, presumably it will turn into dust in another 10 years which kills the underutilization argument. I see no reason why it would be cheaper to use a self driving taxi.
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#164Earlier quoted context omitted.
When you use X and then a substitute Y arrives that is 10x cheaper and more convenient, you'll switch to it. Using robotaxi network will be much cheaper than total cost of owning a car, mostly because cars are dramatically underutilized. On average a car is used 1-2 hrs a day out of 12-16 hrs it could be used as a robotaxi. To start off we have 5-7x price difference. Then most use is not shared. Assuming robotaxis wi…
> It'll be a no-brainer to pay $200-$300 per month for (effectively) unlimited robotaxi service than $400 per month for a lease + $100 month for insurance + fuel + cost and inconvenience of refueling. It's already possible: a monthly transit pass is often in the $100-150 range. The fact that people have been choosing to forego viable transit options in favor of a much more expensive personal vehicle option for a long…
No, this is because transit pass cannot fulfill ALL their needs of transportation, but mostly commuting.
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#165Earlier quoted context omitted.
But we already have buses and bicycles. Car as a service might just as well make the congestion worse since it will go empty to pick you up.
Think Uber carpooling, minus drivers, much cheaper, and short pickup times. Maybe 6-10 person shuttles instead of sedans/SUVs in denser areas. To a car service, moving an empty vehicle is inefficient and a waste of money.
Keeping an empty electric vehicle in motion all the time is cheaper than parking it, in urban contexts.
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#166Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…
It's also highly possible that robotaxi companies would incentivize efficient use of their vehicles in order to drive costs down (and increase profits).
They'll optimize profit by being able to respond instantly to hails, capturing as much market share as possible. So, the entire idle fleet will orbit downtown all the time.
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#167Earlier quoted context omitted.
”The cars would no longer be an expression of personality and a status symbol” You’re not the only one claiming that, but I don’t think it automatically follows. People can currently afford to buy cars for themselves, so unless self-driving cars will be (much) more expensive, people still would be able to afford them. So, in this case, the question is what else, if anything, people would want to use their money on in…
When you use X and then a substitute Y arrives that is 10x cheaper and more convenient, you'll switch to it. Using robotaxi network will be much cheaper than total cost of owning a car, mostly because cars are dramatically underutilized. On average a car is used 1-2 hrs a day out of 12-16 hrs it could be used as a robotaxi. To start off we have 5-7x price difference. Then most use is not shared. Assuming robotaxis wi…
> It'll be a no-brainer to pay $200-$300 per month for (effectively) unlimited robotaxi service than $400 per month for a lease + $100 month for insurance + fuel + cost and inconvenience of refueling.
My car costs 1.800 € ( I'm not the first owner of that Mercedes), I barely use it as I live in a big city.
I'm not paying 200€/month ;)
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#168Earlier quoted context omitted.
”The cars would no longer be an expression of personality and a status symbol” You’re not the only one claiming that, but I don’t think it automatically follows. People can currently afford to buy cars for themselves, so unless self-driving cars will be (much) more expensive, people still would be able to afford them. So, in this case, the question is what else, if anything, people would want to use their money on in…
When you use X and then a substitute Y arrives that is 10x cheaper and more convenient, you'll switch to it. Using robotaxi network will be much cheaper than total cost of owning a car, mostly because cars are dramatically underutilized. On average a car is used 1-2 hrs a day out of 12-16 hrs it could be used as a robotaxi. To start off we have 5-7x price difference. Then most use is not shared. Assuming robotaxis wi…
> On average a car is used 1-2 hrs a day
That amount of time spent with a scooter service would cost $400-$800 a month. A robotaxi service could be more expensive than you think.
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#169Earlier quoted context omitted.
How would robotaxis fix the ~80% of cars being single person? It seems like it would make it even worse, replacing some of those with zero people in the car.
Network of robotaxis has a wonderful quality of increasing utilization with density. It's a self-healing system: the more people use it, the more efficiently we can use it. Efficiency, it this context, is number of people we can transport per hour on a given stretch of the road. It's important, so i'll emphasize it: high utilization of roads is a good thing. Roads are a fixed resource that have already been paid for.…
I'm not sure if we are fixing the right thing with robotaxis.
If you need commute pricing, to make traffic less busy and robotaxis successful.
Then why don't we fix commute riding first, instead of waiting for robotaxis and waiting for this problem to popup.
Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future
#170I used chauffeured cars yesterday, I just shared them with other people. I went to the beach, and had no real plan, I thought I'll go here, clicked on my app and it told me where to go, usually walk a couple of hundred metres. I spent the day travelling and walking around cost about $20 and travelled a couple of hundred kilometres. I took my laptop and worked in between scenic spots. I was thinking about this yesterd…
> because trains don't throw you around when they turn corners Trains are way bigger jerks than buses. They definitely throw you back when you they start after stopping at a station or stop sign. And, they definitely throw you back at turns. So, double whammy.
You must use some shitty or extremely fast trains.