Every decade or so some "lottery loophole" like this is discovered, exploited, publicized, and rules are updated to close it. I'm curious to see if another loophole resulting in a massive rework of the lottery system will ever present itself, or if the laws and rules have finally prevented that after the last few.
Couple wins millions using lottery loophole
161–170 of 191 posts
Re: Couple wins millions using lottery loophole
#162Earlier quoted context omitted.
As someone who's bought a few lottery tickets in his life, I can confirm that the fantasizing is in fact better when it's about something that could happen to you.
you could also just happen to find a winning lottery ticket on the street. the likelihoods of the two events are similar, and one fantasy is free.
Have you tried buying a lottery ticket? It sure feels a lot different than the "free" variety you're proposing.
And props to you if you're a true rationalist who derive nearly equal amounts of satisfaction from both fantasy events, but most people don't behave like that.
Re: Couple wins millions using lottery loophole
#163Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the ticket has an expected positive return for the buyer, then the state must be losing money.
For this to be true, every additional winning ticket purchased must result in a net loss to the state. But it doesn't, every additional winning ticket purchased is money going to the state. The losers in this case are the other people with winning tickets, because their payouts become smaller¹. ¹Well, given one assumption about how the game is run. The other assumption is that the 3- and 4-number winning tickets have…
I think in this case the winnings were fixed and the surge in sales in Rolldown days would cause the pot to be drawn down much more, meaning a longer delay before the next Rolldown day.
So Rolldowns probably became less frequent, but otherwise the lottery made their money and everyone took home exactly the winnings they would have in that particular game.
Re: Couple wins millions using lottery loophole
#164Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's a zero sum game. If one side is positive, the other side must be negative. If jackpot isn't paid out, state gets (ticket_sales), players in total gets (-ticket_sales). If jackpot is paid out, state gets (ticket_sales - jackpot), players gets (jackpot - ticket_sales). The winning players get ((jackpot - winning_ticket_sales) / num_winners) each, the rest gets (losing_ticket_sales). Either way the expected value f…
It’s a zero-sum game, but there are 3 parties: the state general fund, the prize pool, and the players. By regulation, a fixed percentage of each ticket sale goes to the state general fund and the rest goes to the prize pool. Also by regulation, all the money that goes into the prize pool must eventually be paid out to players. The unpaid prize pool getting too big can cause problems for the operator: there may be ac…
Swarming the rolldown day would just have the effect of diminishing the prize pool faster, and therefore a longer delay before the next rolldown day.
Re: Couple wins millions using lottery loophole
#165Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why would you feel bad? What woukd you have down that was wrong? You aren't taking money from anyone else.
You are taking money from the prize pool, i.e. payouts for future winners.
Lotteries are a regressive tax; I don't think this particular case was more or less regressive.
Re: Couple wins millions using lottery loophole
#166Can anyone explain the strategy like I'm 5? I'm confused by his answer.
It might make a little more sense with the numbers. WinFall was a typical lottery game where you choose 6 of 46 numbers[1]. As with most lottery games, there is a jackpot payout but there are also payouts for matching 3, 4, and 5 of the numbers. The odds breakdown goes like this[2]: Result | Odds ------------- 6 of 6 | 1 in 9,366,819 5 of 6 | 1 in 39028.41 4 of 6 | 1 in 800.58 3 of 6 | 1 in 47.40 2 of 6 | 1 in 6.83 T…
so in each game the money that is not won is collected in the pool until the pool is bigger than the overall cost for all tickets?
and in other games this doesn't work because they are 'winner-takes-all'?
Re: Couple wins millions using lottery loophole
#167The paper's reporting revealed that two groups were dominating Cash Winfall: the Selbee gang from Evart, Michigan, and their competition, a syndicate led by math majors from MIT, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. These were kids young enough to be the Selbees' grandchildren. Incredibly, the MIT group bet between $17 and $18 million on Cash Winfall over a seven-year period, earning at least $3.5 million in pr…
On the other hand, in arbitrage, it’s winner takes all.
Re: Couple wins millions using lottery loophole
#168"That was satisfactory." I love that this guy, who is probably, what, 80? 81? pulled off this huge math heist after probably a lifetime spent doing math running a convenience store. I bet it feels great to have that sense of, like, ease with himself in old age, having made a mark on the world in a way that hurt no one and helped a lot of people. He stuck the landing
He hurt all the lottery players he beat.
They bet money on a game that somebody else played better.
Re: Couple wins millions using lottery loophole
#169Earlier quoted context omitted.
How do you know such detailed financial numbers? It sounds like she gave her financial bookkeeping records.
Some families talk about money. I know mine does. Read old Jane Austen novels and you'll see it was common over a hundred years ago too.
Not to the detail where you could recount exact numbers from various transactions over the course of a decade. Maybe I'd memorize my own finances to that degree, but not someone else's.
Re: Couple wins millions using lottery loophole
#170I really enjoyed this story! The best part is people like to think this loop hole is easy “profit”. No one pointed out the fact that they would go on 10 day benders buying/sorting/etc. to get the profit! Even this loop hole for easy profit was incredibly arduous in manual labor.