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AMA: Bill Gates

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Re: AMA: Bill Gates

#161
post #14
post #2

Do people derive pleasure from these AMAs? Gates seems to reply with the same platitudes and non-answers to the point where its hard to tell if it’s him or the BMGF publicist.

I skimmed the AMA for a few minutes, and saw him say that: - He thought nuclear weapons, bioterrorism, and climate change were the biggest threats to humanity. - He thought paying $10B in capital gains taxes was not enough and he should have paid more. Maybe those are platitudes but it's real enough for me.

> He thought nuclear weapons, bioterrorism, and climate change were the biggest threats to humanity.

There was some book (The Cuckoo's Egg?) where a computer scientist and a biologist talk about the biggest threats to humanity. The computer scientist thought that biological viruses were the biggest threat, and the biologist thought that computer viruses were the biggest threat.

I've asked a few people about this, over the years, and the results are remarkably consistent. Everybody is much more scared of the other field where they're not an expert.

Re: AMA: Bill Gates

#162

Bill, thanks to you for Microsoft and to you and Melinda on health. For Climate Change, your position is wildly destructive and based on just sewage instead of science. Net, CO2 has essentially nothing to do with the climate. The main driver of climate change for 1+ million years is just changes in the rates of sun spots. Period. Nice details from some real experts, e.g., Lindzen at MIT, are summarized in the quite g…

I looked up that film and found a Wikipedia article on it. I hardly find credible a "documentary" wherein multiple scientists interviewed complained to regulators that they were misrepresented[0]. Of course, many other scientists complained about the film as well [1]. One stated that "First, let's deal with the main thesis: that the presence or absence of cosmic rays in Earth's atmosphere is a better explanation for…

Thanks for a rational response.

The main, central, key point I was passing to Gates is that we don't have anything like enough solid evidence to spend $trillions to stop human sources of CO2 to stop its effects on climate change. Or, to spend $trillions, we need some biggie evidence, and we don't have that. I don't believe we have good enough evidence to spend 10 cents, but the $trillions are a huge issue.

To spend $trillions, we need some good evidence. The claim is CO2 is and will cause harmful climate change. Well, we could claim the short skirts of young women cause climate change. For any claim for spending $trillions, CO2 or short skirts, we need some good evidence. Well, we are without good evidence.

For CO2, sure, it absorbs infrared -- and gets warm -- in three narrow bands from bending, stretching, and twisting of the molecule with the infrared from Planck black body radiation from the surface of the earth heated by the sun, and without the CO2, e.g., from humans, some of that infrared, not absorbed by, e.g., water vapor, would escape into outer space and not warm the atmosphere. Okay, all true enough.

But, how much warming from how much CO2? Well, there were computer models from whatever, the Navier-Stokes equations, diffusion calculations, physical chemistry, flows in the atmosphere, effects of water vapor, the seasons, asphalt, etc. Lots of models. As in the graph I referenced, dozens of models. So the models made predictions. The time of the predictions has passed, and the predictions are seen to have been wildly wrong. So, in science, we have to junk the models. CO2 still heats the atmosphere, but we are now without any good evidence for how much or that it will be dangerous.

It's tough to prove that the CO2 won't be dangerous, but it's the job of the people wanting to spend $trillions to give solid evidence that CO2 is dangerous, not the job of skeptics to prove it is not. If the alarmists can win on CO2 without solid evidence, then they can win on short skirts also.

Net, on CO2, we are, in the words of Groucho Marx, stuck-o.

For the movie, it seemed to show lots of ways that CO2 changes didn't fit the temperature changes but some sun spot data did. Net, in the competition for what causes climate change, so far, the sun spots win.

I have yet to go to outer space and count solar wind particles hitting cosmic rays or go to the upper atmosphere and watch cosmic rays form water droplets, but, still, so far, from just relatively crude evidence from some simple graphs (where the movie didn't give good references to the original data), still so far the sun spots win. Since we can't do anything about sun spots, we can save our $trillions.

Not only do the sun spots win, the CO2 claims quite broadly fail badly to fit the climate data. About the only evidence for danger from CO2 is my little explanation of narrow bands in the infrared.

For your [0], Wunsch is angry, as far as I can tell he is angry over nothing. There Wunsch says:

"In the part of The Great Climate Change Swindle where I am describing the fact that the ocean tends to expel carbon dioxide where it is warm, and to absorb it where it is cold, my intent was to explain that warming the ocean could be dangerous—because it is such a gigantic reservoir of carbon. By its placement in the film, it appears that I am saying that since carbon dioxide exists in the ocean in such large quantities, human influence must not be very important—diametrically opposite to the point I was making—which is that global warming is both real and threatening.[7]"

He should calm down: His point about the oceans was nice. Another result of what he said, that seems correct, is that as ocean surface temperatures change, atmospheric CO2 levels can change. Still, the CO2 changes seem harmless and didn't cause the changes in the ocean temperatures. I.e., from what Wunsch explained, from a tiny bit of temperature change in the surface of the oceans, the oceans will go "SLURP" or "BURP" and suck up or blow out CO2, maybe a surprisingly large amount of CO2. I.e., from whatever changes in ocean surface temperatures, we can expect some maybe surprisingly large CO2 concentration changes. Okay. Good to know. But, still, no threats in sight.

To me the movie is fine, tiny flaws and objections aside -- much better explanation of the situation than from the alarmists fears of CO2 and their many $trillion dollar schemes against CO2.

A $trillion here and a $trillion there, after a while it adds up to real money. For that, we will need a lot of solid evidence, and so far we don't have any, and the attempts so far flopped. Sun spots are MUCH better evidence.

What very clearly WOULD be very dangerous to nearly everyone on earth would be the efforts of the alarmists to spend $trillions fighting CO2. If Gates contributed to this effort, he would seriously damage civilization and do much more damage than all the good he has done and is doing.

For me, Gates should drop the push against CO2.

Re: AMA: Bill Gates

#163
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He thought paying $10B in capital gains taxes was not enough and he should have paid more. I'm always annoyed when rich people say things like this. I had one say almost this exact thing to me in an elevator once. There's nothing stopping him from paying more. He just writes a check to "Department of the Treasury" and sends it off to D.C. Problem solved. But then he doesn't get to passive-aggressively whine about all…

It's really, really simple, to the point where I suspect that most people that make the argument you are making are being disingenuous. Bill Gates is willing to pay more taxes if other billionaires pay more taxes. If they don't, he isn't. Just like I think my taxes should be higher, but I'm not going to voluntarily pay higher taxes, unless others in my tax bracket also pay them. Even chimpanzees would probably unders…

> Even chimpanzees would probably understand and disagree with you

I think it's important to stress the practical side of the argument too, rather than just appealing to intuitions of fairness.

Bill Gates probably believes (and is probably correct) that for any sum of money he is willing to part with, he could do more good by directing it toward carefully selected philanthropic causes than by donating it to the government. So when acting alone, there's no reason for him to unilaterally pay extra tax, unless he believes it will have very good indirect effects and/or is just seeking a PR boost.

He also believes that if people in his class (including him) paid much more in taxes than they currently do, the world would be a better place than it is now.

These two beliefs are entirely consistent, for at least two reasons:

* For a lot of people in his class, the likely alternatives are not philanthropy vs. taxes, but non-altruistic spending vs. taxes.

* There are, at least arguably, some things that government is better suited to doing than private charities are. Perhaps these tend to be the kind of large-scale projects that could be funded by higher taxes on all super-rich people, rather than anything that would result from a donation to the government by a single billionaire.

Even if your opinion of government is very low and you disagree with the second point, the first should be enough to show that his position is perfectly consistent, and would be even for someone unrealistically altruistic and willing to be on the wrong end of an unfair situation.

Re: AMA: Bill Gates

#164
post #83
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet... how many other billionaires do you see going out and saying that the capital gains tax rate is too low and climate change is the biggest threat to humanity.

Buffett has been beating the "higher taxes for rich people" drum at least since the 2008 recession, maybe longer. He won't actually open his wallet to push for these policies mind you. That would be a bridge too far.

Are you really saying the billionares who pledged more than 90% of their wealth to charity, and will "only" leave their kids 10 million dollars isn't backing up what he says?

Re: AMA: Bill Gates

#165
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If he thinks that the government can better allocate the collective amount of additional tax it could obtain from people in similar tax situations, why wouldn't he think the same about just his portion? Either he has a much higher opinion of his personal judgement in allocating his money (which is likely) than other people who he also thinks should be paying more tax or he should turn over the BMGF to the government.

I expect that it's not so much a higher opinion of his personal judgement as a higher opinion of his values and priorities. Obviously he feels their foundation is spending money on the most important things it can be; however I expect he also feels that the government will, on average, spend it on more important things than it would be used for by most people with similar levels of wealth.

So pretty much the same way most people think that their driving skills are well above average.

Re: AMA: Bill Gates

#166
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expect that it's not so much a higher opinion of his personal judgement as a higher opinion of his values and priorities. Obviously he feels their foundation is spending money on the most important things it can be; however I expect he also feels that the government will, on average, spend it on more important things than it would be used for by most people with similar levels of wealth.

So pretty much the same way most people think that their driving skills are well above average.

To be fair, Bill Gates probably is above average in a lot of ways.

Re: AMA: Bill Gates

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can already do that. Buy the business edition. Or use Linux and run windows in a VM. Or block the windows update system in one of a million ways including firewalling it. If you are really such a power user, you can do what you want already. For the millions of others people who don't know how to find facebook without putting it into google search... yeah the automatic updates are good for them, and I'm tired of…

Do you know where can I buy one license of the business edition? I recently purchased a Pro license and couldn't find this "LTSB" (I believe it's called) version.

It's called Windows 10 Enterprise LTSC 2019 (there was a 2016 version as well). Without getting into the Byzantine nature of Microsoft licensing for their enterprise products, I recommend you just use local group policy to set the 'defer updates' option and put yourself on the Current Branch for Business release track in your current Windows 10 Pro.

Re: AMA: Bill Gates

#169
post #2

Do people derive pleasure from these AMAs? Gates seems to reply with the same platitudes and non-answers to the point where its hard to tell if it’s him or the BMGF publicist.

> The goal of the Foundation is that all kids grow up healthy - no matter where they are born. That means getting rid of malaria and many of the other diseases that affect poor countries.

There's something about this guy that seems 'off' to me. I should assume it's because he's a tech guy originally and not a politician.

Is it just me or do other people see the convoluted logic that links 'lack of money' with disease and therefore unhealthy kids?

If so, then all that needs to be done is for Mr Gates to give all his money to those poor countries, ipso facto disease is gone and kids are healthy.

I'd love to see him try it this out!

A later quote:

> However if I had one wish to make a new technology it would be a solution to malnutrition. Almost half the kids in poor countries grow up without their body or brain developing fully so they miss most of their potential.

From "How much would it cost to end hunger?" [0], the answer is $160 pp in poverty.

Or from Quora [1]:

"With say 2.5 billion people short of food, $166 billions per year would "theoretically" eliminate hunger. Just as a comparison, "During FY 2013, the federal government spent $3.45 trillion on a budget or cash basis, down $84 billion or 2.4% vs. FY 2012 ", or about 20 times as much"

Now, the US military budget was $637 billion in 2015 [2], which is enough to feed the poor several times over.

To me, it sounds like he should turn his Foundation into a lobbying group to end all war (or greatly reduce the military industrial complex) and use that money to reach his goals. Just sayin'. (This is why his words keep seeming 'off' to me)

[0] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/07/how-much-would-it-cos...

[1] https://www.quora.com/How-much-would-it-cost-to-feed-the-wor...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_...

(Edited)

Re: AMA: Bill Gates

#170
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buffett has been beating the "higher taxes for rich people" drum at least since the 2008 recession, maybe longer. He won't actually open his wallet to push for these policies mind you. That would be a bridge too far.

Are you really saying the billionares who pledged more than 90% of their wealth to charity, and will "only" leave their kids 10 million dollars isn't backing up what he says?

charity is part of the problem, and not part of the solutions.
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