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U.S. Changes Visa Process for High-Skilled Workers

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Re: U.S. Changes Visa Process for High-Skilled Workers

#161

Post by remarkEon »

femiagbabiaka wrote: post #151
ajxs wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

However anecdotal this claim may be, it seems fairly intuitive given the basic economic model of supply and demand. Can you explain how greatly increasing the supply of developers by importing them from overseas will not affect the demand, and therefore negatively affect the cost of labour?

Software engineers have a habit of assuming problems are more intuitive than they actually are. Even with H1B, there are literally not enough engineers in the Valley to saturate the demand from companies. BLS estimates that the number of employed software engineers will go up 24% next year, that’s insane. Also, I’m not seeing this supposed depression in salaries. The median salary for a software engineer is 103k a ye…

>Even with H1B, there are literally not enough engineers in the Valley to saturate the demand from companies.

Why is this? This sounds like a huge U.S. talent development problem. How does this visa change help to fix this issue?

>I can’t find any to prove that H1Bs are dragging down salaries.

The very fact that the number of employed software engineers is expected to go up by 24% in a single year is the evidence you're looking for that there is a massive supply distortion in the labor market.

Re: U.S. Changes Visa Process for High-Skilled Workers

#162

Post by femiagbabiaka »

tossaccount123 wrote: post #147
joshe wrote: post #94

I've worked with a few H1-B holders in Silicon Valley and they're awesome. A great improvement would be to allow H1B holders to change jobs easily (maybe after a year). It's too easy for them to get stuck in not great situations. It would be great for everyone if they could move to better fitting jobs, especially for startups who have trouble running H1-B programs. If you are, like me, a software engineer, you should…

>To prime your intuition a bit, consider how woman and minorities more than doubled the work force from the 1960s to 1990s with no loss in jobs or lowering of wages. You do realize there hasn't been a raise in real wages since the 70s when you account for inflation right? Coincidentally during that same time period the income gap exploded because the wealthy had plentiful cheap labor and were able to pocket the produ…

Software engineering isn’t most professions. Salaries have been going up more than a decade accounting for inflation.

If 10 million software engineers dropped in Silicon Valley, a lot of things would happen (for one there’s nowhere for them to live). But that’s not what’s happening.

Re: U.S. Changes Visa Process for High-Skilled Workers

#163

Post by Tycho »

Fun thought experiment is to think what would happen if you told ____s to replace ____s.

What would happen if you took programmers and told them to fill the roles of teachers?

What would happen if you took teachers and told them to replace programmers?

What would happen if you took policemen and told them to manage portfolios?

What would happen if you took nurses and told them to replace lawyers?

In some cases, everything would grind to a halt. In others, things would rattle on but perhaps in a suboptimal manner.

I suppose there's a few variables like training time, and whether a job has some sort of 'coasting' option, eg. portfolio managers could just buy the index and come out OK.

Re: U.S. Changes Visa Process for High-Skilled Workers

#164

Post by maximente »

joshe wrote: post #94

I've worked with a few H1-B holders in Silicon Valley and they're awesome. A great improvement would be to allow H1B holders to change jobs easily (maybe after a year). It's too easy for them to get stuck in not great situations. It would be great for everyone if they could move to better fitting jobs, especially for startups who have trouble running H1-B programs. If you are, like me, a software engineer, you should…

i'm sorry but this comment reads like a puff piece. the red flag for me was when you simultaneously claimed that economics is complicated and then almost immediately... make an economic claim?

look, i get that you want to signal positive sentiment towards immigrants. that's great. but it's not at all clear what you're saying is true - one would need to factor in inflation, minimum wage growth, purchasing power, and things of that nature.

there's also the other (darker?) side of the coin, which indicates that in the US, there isn't nearly enough opportunity for US citizens to bridge the gap between where they are and to get prepared for these jobs. that's a black eye on our education system mostly, but it should be emphasized every time something like this is under discussion - given the incredible demand for these roles and the incredible amount of people not in the labor force who actually want a job, we really, really ought to be focusing on education here so as to fill these roles with US citizens.

Re: U.S. Changes Visa Process for High-Skilled Workers

#165

Post by arcticbull »

mc32 wrote: post #91
Daishiman wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

False; pretty much all of the Americas are jus soli.

Not false. How is ~164 out of 194 countries jus sanguinis not most? There are approx 30 of 194 that are jus soli. How is that “false”. And except for Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chili and Uruguay, the rest aren’t what one would think of as “sought after”, otherwise you’d have other people trying to take advantage of their citizenship policies.

Chili sounds spicy.

I’m not pro jus soli but to characterize birth tourism as a big problem is crazy. A conservative think tank estimated it at 40,000 births per year out of 4.3 million (0.9%) — the average delivery costs $32,000 for an economic benefit of $1.28B per year. Then those poor kids are going to have to pay US income taxes for the rest of their natural lives no matter where they live. We can expect the first 18 years to be abroad since their parents don’t get citizenship and the US has effectively zero social safety net anyways. What’s the big deal?

Re: U.S. Changes Visa Process for High-Skilled Workers

#167

Post by tossaccount123 »

femiagbabiaka wrote: post #162
tossaccount123 wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>To prime your intuition a bit, consider how woman and minorities more than doubled the work force from the 1960s to 1990s with no loss in jobs or lowering of wages. You do realize there hasn't been a raise in real wages since the 70s when you account for inflation right? Coincidentally during that same time period the income gap exploded because the wealthy had plentiful cheap labor and were able to pocket the produ…

Software engineering isn’t most professions. Salaries have been going up more than a decade accounting for inflation. If 10 million software engineers dropped in Silicon Valley, a lot of things would happen (for one there’s nowhere for them to live). But that’s not what’s happening.

It was hyperbole to show the effect of supply and demand

More and more I notice how similar software engineers are beginning to sound like the "Made in America" factory workers who said China could never do their job. Never take the present comfy situation for granted

Re: U.S. Changes Visa Process for High-Skilled Workers

#168

Post by mc32 »

arcticbull wrote: post #165
mc32 wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not false. How is ~164 out of 194 countries jus sanguinis not most? There are approx 30 of 194 that are jus soli. How is that “false”. And except for Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chili and Uruguay, the rest aren’t what one would think of as “sought after”, otherwise you’d have other people trying to take advantage of their citizenship policies.

Chili sounds spicy. I’m not pro jus soli but to characterize birth tourism as a big problem is crazy. A conservative think tank estimated it at 40,000 births per year out of 4.3 million (0.9%) — the average delivery costs $32,000 for an economic benefit of $1.28B per year. Then those poor kids are going to have to pay US income taxes for the rest of their natural lives no matter where they live. We can expect the fir…

It’s not a problem in and of itself but it’s illustrative of our lax policy.

Re: U.S. Changes Visa Process for High-Skilled Workers

#169

Post by arcticbull »

mc32 wrote: post #156
Daishiman wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An entire continent, of the youngest countries consisting of liberal democracies being jus soli isn't something you can just wave away and pretend is irrelevant or has some particularly unusual behavior. Said countries have even laxes immigration policies, similar proportions of immigrant populations, the same anti-immigrant rhetoric that you're spouting, and yet it's just not really the problem that it's made out to…

Wanting control over who comes in and who goes out is not “anti-immigrant rhetoric”, If those countries had sudden surges, you’d see them change, just look at the Venezuela/Colombia border to see how a surge will change opinion anc behavior. Chile is also cracking down on illegal entries now that they’re more prevalent. No country will have unrestricted immigration, otherwise why not form a union with neighbors? Also…

It’s not false it’s just irrelevant. People are people no matter where they’re from, the US has some of the toughest immigration laws anywhere, immigrants boost the economy and the US is squandering it’s opportunity by letting countries like Canada take in the worlds best and brightest.

Re: U.S. Changes Visa Process for High-Skilled Workers

#170

Post by arcticbull »

godelmachine wrote: post #140
mc32 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the person giving birth but the progeny. Most countries ~164 out of 194) are jus sanguinis (you inherit nationality of parent(s)) we are one of the exceptions with jus soli. We even have “birth tourism” taking advantage of our liberal policy.

Parents can later leverage the citizenship of their progeny to gain theirs.

27 years later.
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