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China’s Economy Slows Sharply

nytimes.com

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Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#161

Post by adventured »

nihonde wrote: post #153
rrggrr wrote: post #5

I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...

Meanwhile US exports to China are eating dirt. This trade war is not going well for America, although this slow growth headline will be used to bolster a false narrative: https://mobile.twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1073234887...

> Meanwhile US exports to China are eating dirt.

US exports to China for 2018 will be around $123-$126 billion.

That compares to $129 billion for 2017, and $115 billion for 2016 and 2015. So US exports will be up vs 2016 & 2015, and down a mere couple billion versus 2017. Meaningless in other words.

Your premise is incorrect. So far China is paying for most of the trade war [1] through its producers slashing prices and by allowing its Yuan to drop in value (which is a wealth transfer from the Chinese people to prop up its exporters so they can hopefully run in place rather than get hit hard). That's why the US isn't seeing any consequential pricing / inflationary pressure at all from the trade war.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-19/china-is-...

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#162

Post by Latteland »

coldtea wrote: post #45
babygoat wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

citation needed

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judith_Miller and inversely: https://www.thenation.com/article/new-york-times-wants-gary-...

they sure screwed up during the iraq war. that's a big notable exception to their general excellence at writing about and discovering important and accurate things.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#163

Post by Latteland »

anoncoward111 wrote: post #132
RhodesianHunter wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politician cherry picks number that makes him look good! News at ten.

Except every politician has done this for this specific stat. Why are you defending it so vehemently when it is a pitiful indicator?

People do talk about other unemployment rates, the labor participation rate. like on the marketplace daily radio show/podcast.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#164

Post by panarky »

ubtual wrote: post #97
rrggrr wrote: post #5

I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...

This is a common pattern amongst Chinese apologist Economy: Everyone says it's been failing for 10 years -> Chinese leadership is omnipotent regarding economy -> it's just a temporary slowdown, government will print more money -> Chinese leadership planned this slowdown Human rights: look at US! -> ignore comparisons to other countries other than US -> It's not really a concentration camp, since there's no mass murde…

> slavery 300 years ago

The emancipation proclamation was signed January 1, 1863, or 156 years ago.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#165

Post by adventured »

CoolGuySteve wrote: post #47
mrkstu wrote: post #25

The pullback of outflows capital to foreign locations is the most telling to me. Chinese companies are starting to be net sellers instead of net acquirers of foreign assets. That would be fine if it was just because they were getting better return on their capital inside China, but in reality it is to pay back runaway debt and inability to complete asset purchases due to government capital controls. Those controls wo…

What happened in the early 90s recession when Japan pulled back on foreign investment? Did they cause the recession or were they wiped out by it? The only thing I remember as a teenager then was the Japanese briefly gaining and losing control of the NBC/GE conglomerate.

> the Japanese briefly gaining and losing control of the NBC/GE conglomerate.

Japan never owned GE or NBC. They bought a 51% interest in Rockefeller Center (where NBC was/is based) in 1989 [1], which is just real-estate. The high prices the Japanese often paid for trophy real-estate and businesses during the bubble years, is often held up as a reference point to the end of the run. China began doing something similar just before Xi came to power, then Xi put a hard stop to it.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/1989/10/31/business/japanese-buy-new...

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#166

Post by fspeech »

adventured wrote: post #161
nihonde wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Meanwhile US exports to China are eating dirt. This trade war is not going well for America, although this slow growth headline will be used to bolster a false narrative: https://mobile.twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1073234887...

> Meanwhile US exports to China are eating dirt. US exports to China for 2018 will be around $123-$126 billion. That compares to $129 billion for 2017, and $115 billion for 2016 and 2015. So US exports will be up vs 2016 & 2015, and down a mere couple billion versus 2017. Meaningless in other words. Your premise is incorrect. So far China is paying for most of the trade war [1] through its producers slashing prices a…

Chinese import growth over 2018 was mostly in the double digit range (averaged 14.6% Jan. through Nov.). Its imports from Europe, Japan and ASEAN grew 10% or higher.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/total-imports-gr...

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#167

Post by adventured »

fspeech wrote: post #166
adventured wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Meanwhile US exports to China are eating dirt. US exports to China for 2018 will be around $123-$126 billion. That compares to $129 billion for 2017, and $115 billion for 2016 and 2015. So US exports will be up vs 2016 & 2015, and down a mere couple billion versus 2017. Meaningless in other words. Your premise is incorrect. So far China is paying for most of the trade war [1] through its producers slashing prices a…

Chinese import growth over 2018 was mostly in the double digit range (averaged 14.6% Jan. through Nov.). Its imports from Europe, Japan and ASEAN grew 10% or higher. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/total-imports-gr...

They're not identical markets.

Both Japan and the EU (Germany with the world's largest trade surplus) have larger export markets in relation to the size of their economies than the US does. That's also one reason the US runs perpetually large trade deficits with Japan and the EU.

US exports to China haven't gone up meaningfully since 2013 (in fact they declined 2013 vs 2015/2016). That's not the case with the EU and Japan. Has nothing to do with the trade war, which didn't exist in 2013-2016, it has to do with what (and where) the US manufactures and exports.

It's also worth noting that Chinese manufacturing is to one extent or another a representation (proxy) for the US consumer economy, since major US corporations utilize China for so much manufacturing (part of the where and why reference in the last paragraph). US companies make products in China and then sell them to US consumers, which complicates the import/export discussion. This is pointed out constantly in critical discussions (eg about the environment or labor & wages), and ignored in discussions like these where it's an inconvenient fact. Over time the EU and Japan have outsourced less of their major manufacturing to China than what the US has.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#168

Post by nihonde »

adventured wrote: post #161
nihonde wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Meanwhile US exports to China are eating dirt. This trade war is not going well for America, although this slow growth headline will be used to bolster a false narrative: https://mobile.twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1073234887...

> Meanwhile US exports to China are eating dirt. US exports to China for 2018 will be around $123-$126 billion. That compares to $129 billion for 2017, and $115 billion for 2016 and 2015. So US exports will be up vs 2016 & 2015, and down a mere couple billion versus 2017. Meaningless in other words. Your premise is incorrect. So far China is paying for most of the trade war [1] through its producers slashing prices a…

Wrong. China is benefitting from an uptick in orders due to tariffs. Also, US exports are down, despite your attempt to write the dip off: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti...

And that’s from back in October. It’s a loss no matter how you spin it.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#169

Post by adventured »

nihonde wrote: post #168
adventured wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Meanwhile US exports to China are eating dirt. US exports to China for 2018 will be around $123-$126 billion. That compares to $129 billion for 2017, and $115 billion for 2016 and 2015. So US exports will be up vs 2016 & 2015, and down a mere couple billion versus 2017. Meaningless in other words. Your premise is incorrect. So far China is paying for most of the trade war [1] through its producers slashing prices a…

Wrong. China is benefitting from an uptick in orders due to tariffs. Also, US exports are down, despite your attempt to write the dip off: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti... And that’s from back in October. It’s a loss no matter how you spin it.

Saying I'm wrong, doesn't make it so. Your claim - that US exports are "eating dirt" - is unsupported by the actual export numbers. US Exports are down a few billion dollars only vs 2017, and they're up vs 2015 and 2016. In a $20.5 trillion economy it's entirely meaningless to see a $3 or $5 billion drop in exports to China and doesn't square with your outlandish claim about dirt eating.

China is benefitting from what's called front-loading, which is a temporary bump in exports to beat the implementation of tariffs. It has been widely discussed in dozens of business publications over the last few months (including some breathless articles about ships desperately racing to beat the tariff dates), there's nothing surprising about it.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#170

Post by ardy42 »

keepsimple wrote: post #156

As a Chinese grew up in China and have been living in US in recent years, I am already used to how US media reports about China. The bottom line: I have not seen _any_ US media reporting China truthfully. NPR is usually the worst, but others not much better. What happens is that, because of untruthful reporting in US media, people in US does not know or understand what's going on in China. It seems a miracle that suc…

> What happens is that, because of untruthful reporting in US media, people in US does not know or understand what's going on in China.

So, in your view:

1. what's the real story about what's going on in China that's being missed in "untruthful" articles like this, and

2. who's reporting that story "truthfully"?

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