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Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

bloomberg.com

161–170 of 272 posts

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know people who deliberately don’t save for retirement because they are betting that few people in their generation will have enough to retire on, and the government politically can’t let elderly people mass-die on the street.

Curious - what age group?

In my experience, anyone under age 40, for sure.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#162

This article is kind of infuriating. Just bring the facts up and talk about them, instead of describing people. I think this is one of the more critical parts (along with the stuff about water supply getting contaminated): > Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates…

> Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century.

Note that your home does not need to be permanently underwater to have it destroyed by a storm. Not even a hurricane-type thing; there are parts of Miami that require permanent water pumps today to stay dry. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/...

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#163

Start worrying when the banks stop offering mortgages to people trying to buy property in south beach. I remember when Katrina flooded New Orleans, lots of people were asking why rebuild the city when it almost certainly will flood like that again. And the answer was a simple, do you know how much it would cost to relocate everyone? What does it do to the economy when almost everyones largest asset(their house) is wo…

> Start worrying when the banks stop offering mortgages to people trying to buy property in south beach.

Florida is a recourse state, isn't it? That might make whether or not banks offer mortgages a trailing indicator rather than a leading indicator of how risky it is there.

In a non-recourse state (Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Washington), if the borrower stops paying their mortgage the bank can foreclose and sell the property, and that ends the borrower's obligation. If the proceeds from the foreclosure were less then what was owed too bad for the bank. That's all the get.

In a recourse state, it starts out the same. The bank forecloses and sells the property. But in a recourse state, that only ends the borrower's obligation if the proceeds are enough to pay the remaining debt. If they fall short, the borrower still owes the difference. The bank can go after assets other than the property, or can go for wage garnishment, or both.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#164
post #134

This article is kind of infuriating. Just bring the facts up and talk about them, instead of describing people. I think this is one of the more critical parts (along with the stuff about water supply getting contaminated): > Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates…

I am not sure it is reasonable for every article about the effects of climate change to start with the evidence that climate change is real. If you come to this article from the angle of "climate change is a myth", a single article from Bloomberg was never going to be the turning point in your belief anyway.

I think it would be better for the writer to provide specific evidence for the specific pretext. You don't need to convince me that climate change is real, but climate change is a general term. I'd rather see some evidence backing up the sea level increase in Miami claim.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#165

This article is kind of infuriating. Just bring the facts up and talk about them, instead of describing people. I think this is one of the more critical parts (along with the stuff about water supply getting contaminated): > Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates…

At the 4th Climate Assessment of the State of California (this week in Sacramento) the officially accepted number is now 9'ish feet mean sea level rise by 2100. ( still reading summary as linked below) correction: 95th percentile of summary prediction is shown as 20 inches by 2050 (page 9 link below) (more specific report on this topic http://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/docs/rising-seas-in-...)

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#166
This is one of the best articles I've seen on climate change. We are now looking to a 3 degree rise in surface temps by the middle of this century - well within our lifetimes. Miami is headed underwater. I wouldn't be buying real estate in any low-lying area if I can avoid it.

"Three-degree warming is a prescription for short-term disaster: forests in the Arctic and the loss of most coastal cities. Robert Watson, a former director of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has argued that three-degree warming is the realistic minimum."

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/clim...

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The article isn't saying Miami will be underwater soon. I beg to differ, it's the first sentence of the title of the article: “Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. […]” Then there's, “Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates that six feet of sea-level rise would put a…

Yes, it would probably help if officials in Florida could say the words "climate change" or "global warming". https://www.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article129837...

[flagged]

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only if that rate remains steady, and it very well may not.

True. And some scientists believe that rate is accelerating, for example Steve Nerem et al: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180212150739.h... That accelerating projection "has the potential to double the total sea level rise by 2100 as compared to projections that assume a constant rate -- to more than 60 cm instead of about 30". Two feet instead of one. I still don't see where six feet is coming from.

I still don't see where six feet is coming from.

I read $SOMEWHERE recently that the the worst case scenario predicted six feet. But that's, IIRC, if we do absolutely nothing, the methane in the Arctic is all released, and Greenland melts. The more likely scenario is somewhere from 1-3 feet.

So unless memory fails me, the article didn't just pull it out of its arse, but a source would've been nice rather than just throw a number out there with no backing whatsoever.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#169

This article is kind of infuriating. Just bring the facts up and talk about them, instead of describing people. I think this is one of the more critical parts (along with the stuff about water supply getting contaminated): > Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates…

According to NASA [1], global sea levels have been rising at a fairly steady 3.2 millimeters per year since 1993. According to NOAA [2], the "relative sea level trend" in Miami Beach is 2.39 mm/year. At those rates, in 100 years, the sea will have risen about one foot, not six. 1: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ 2: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/

NOAA has data on miami from 1939 to 1981, so it isn't exactly current. I have no idea why the timeline is so bad though.

Re: Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First

#170
post #163

Start worrying when the banks stop offering mortgages to people trying to buy property in south beach. I remember when Katrina flooded New Orleans, lots of people were asking why rebuild the city when it almost certainly will flood like that again. And the answer was a simple, do you know how much it would cost to relocate everyone? What does it do to the economy when almost everyones largest asset(their house) is wo…

> Start worrying when the banks stop offering mortgages to people trying to buy property in south beach. Florida is a recourse state, isn't it? That might make whether or not banks offer mortgages a trailing indicator rather than a leading indicator of how risky it is there. In a non-recourse state (Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Wa…

> Florida is a recourse state, isn't it?

It is, and the lender almost invariably chooses to first sue on the note so as to avoid taking title to the property for as long as possible.

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