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Microsoft is now worth more than Alphabet

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161–170 of 183 posts

Re: Microsoft is now worth more than Alphabet

#161
post #65

I've really come to admire Satya Nadella as a great CEO.

To really get my respect he needs to kill off ads in the Windows start menu and the pervasive Cortana surveillance. To really, REALLY get my respect: I would like to see Microsoft be a pure, best-practice software company. Do GREAT things independently of Windows. Make native Mac applications that are truly great. Make a better Mac application than Apple can. Make better iOS apps. Be a champion of Linux. and so on. S…

VS code is on that list already

Re: Microsoft is now worth more than Alphabet

#162
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It costs like ten dollars sometimes to rent a movie that probably costs them $0.30 to stream to me, they gotta be making some money

And how much does the studio charge to luscence the movie? Surely you didn't expect that was free?

Well surely it's not 9.70/user either

Also, it's on the same infrastructure as apps so they already have a good backbone for delivering it

Re: Microsoft is now worth more than Alphabet

#163
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree with most of your points, this one seems arguable: > Microsoft Excel remains the default lingua franca of business. Google Docs and Spreadsheets has not replaced Office. Google Docs, Sheets and Slides have taken over the education market from elementary school through college, and for many businesses Google's offerings have become interchangeable with Microsoft's. Outlook and Excel still have a strong h…

LibreOffice is now an excellent alternative for both business and home use.

While I appreciate the colossal volunteer work that the LibreOffice people have done, I don't like it.

It is in essence the same as StarOffice from Sun, an office suite that wasn't even very good back in the Sun years.

Re: Microsoft is now worth more than Alphabet

#164
post #114

As a long term investor, I'm worried with Google. All the bills are paid by ad revenue, a single horse. Then there is this bubble of claims that they have the best engineers and work environment yet this has not produced any other business equivalent to the ad business. Then they have a reputation of creating awesome tools that then get killed in years, enterprise customers don't like this unpredictability. Microsoft…

Google's "other revenues" (mostly Cloud and Play) was $14B as of their last 10-K, growing at 40% YoY. That pales in comparison to their advertising revenues, but if you just had an isolated business (not part of Alphabet) with $14B in revenue growing 40%/year, that would be a pretty attractive stock. (For comparison, HP Enterprise has about $28B in revenue with negative growth and is worth $23B. At current growth rat…

IIRC Azure is bigger and growing faster than GCP, so valuing MSFT more highly doesn't seem crazy.

Re: Microsoft is now worth more than Alphabet

#165
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Computing started with dumb terminals connected to super computers. Personal computing reversed the trend. Now the trend is reversing. Computing is increasingly being offloaded to the cloud. Gaming, graphics, it won't matter if an app is ARM or x86, 32bit or 64bit or 128bit, windows, android, linux or IOS if it runs on the cloud, even part of the operating system can be handled off hand-held devices. The only limit A…

I completely agree there is a big demand and a big market. The issue is whether providing these services is so profitable that MS deserves to be in the top few companies in the US. Is there really enough pricing power in Azure? Windows used to be strategically important. Outsourced hardware isn't.

I'm not knowledgeable enough to answer authoritatively.

However, buzzwords drive valuations.

Microsoft has a few buzzwords working for it ATM - blockchain, AI, and Cloud, Intelligent cloud.

Re: Microsoft is now worth more than Alphabet

#166
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two large changes for better in Microsoft: 1. 2006 Bill Gates stepped down as a Chief Software Architect 2. 2014 Satya Nadella became CEO after Ballmer. Gates was good CEO but he was not a good Chief Architect. He had the knowledge, the intelligence and skills, but he had no ability to do good high-level choices. Chief Architect needs to know when to sacrifice in details to get the whole slightly better. Microsoft is…

> Microsoft is not known for innovation um, okay.

They aren't. Almost most innovation they've tried to implement in the market have gone underappreciated or forgotten. That means they're "not known" for their innovation. I don't think Nokinside is saying Microsoft is not an innovator.

Then again, most of their money comes from products that are specifically borrowed concepts, competitively forced into dominance, with more purchase incentives than their competition, and before other companies could even get a foothold. So maybe that's what Nokinside meant.

Either way, I'm not surprised when people kick Microsoft for a lack of innovation. Nadella's focus on increasing innovation at Microsoft alone is evidence that they haven't been doing enough.

Re: Microsoft is now worth more than Alphabet

#168
post #128
post #114

As a long term investor, I'm worried with Google. All the bills are paid by ad revenue, a single horse. Then there is this bubble of claims that they have the best engineers and work environment yet this has not produced any other business equivalent to the ad business. Then they have a reputation of creating awesome tools that then get killed in years, enterprise customers don't like this unpredictability. Microsoft…

Ads are Google's business model, but they make their major money from a few different leading products : Search, ad platform(both internal and external), YouTube, Android.

Do you have a reference for these claims?

Search and Youtube seem to be ad hosting platforms, and "ad platfom" seems it would be from ads. The Android ad revenue slice seems to be missing from Google.

Re: Microsoft is now worth more than Alphabet

#169

I think most people really don’t understand the wide breadth and the real market of Microsoft as compared to other companies. Just look at these charts of income sources of each company: http://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/cotd52602.png Google is literally just Ads whereas Microsoft is very evenly spread. If it lost one area itd be fine in the others. I think people have an exposure bias where they can onl…

The pie chart is dividing revenue sources rather superficially, probably just from the companys financial report. For example, surface is listed as revenue source, where pixel and other hardware products are not listed for Google. And for ads, Google has display ads, search ads, YouTube, these are vastly different market. If we treat ads as one source, we might as well treat windows & office as one category: pc softw…

The main point from an investor perspective is that if anything happens to the "ads market" landscape, Google as a whole will be greatly affected. For example, new legislation surrounding targeted advertising or use of personal identifiable information for marketing purpose could have a major impact on Google. And those are not some far fetch and unlikely scenario. Some government are eager to put some rules and barriers to protect user privacy and to limit what can be done with it (specially in Europe), and many consumers agree and also care about "their" data. Legislation is not the only risk, even technological breakthrough could shake the ad industry. For example, smartphone became a big deal in the span of very few years. It took Google and Facebook a couple years to adapt to shifting advertising revenue from web browsing to mobile browsing. If you remember some of the early financial reports from Facebook back in 2012, most of them were disappointing due to the fact that many of their users shifted to mobile browsing, and Facebook had a really hard time find a way to display ads on mobile that would result in a click. Their whole business was impacted and it took them a couple years to start growing their ad business again.

The main point is, if you only make money by selling 1 thing (which is Ads, regardless of what medium they use to show their ads), then if something actually happens to that source of revenue, the effect is major. The more diversified your revenue source is, the less likely it is that a single event will affect your company in a major way. Again, not saying Google doesn't have many products, and obviously, having search ads, youtube ads, mobile ads, (and more) as different mediums help mitigate some of the risk that could affect those individual products, but they are still very much exposed to the risks of a changing market.

Re: Microsoft is now worth more than Alphabet

#170
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The pie chart is dividing revenue sources rather superficially, probably just from the companys financial report. For example, surface is listed as revenue source, where pixel and other hardware products are not listed for Google. And for ads, Google has display ads, search ads, YouTube, these are vastly different market. If we treat ads as one source, we might as well treat windows & office as one category: pc softw…

The main point from an investor perspective is that if anything happens to the "ads market" landscape, Google as a whole will be greatly affected. For example, new legislation surrounding targeted advertising or use of personal identifiable information for marketing purpose could have a major impact on Google. And those are not some far fetch and unlikely scenario. Some government are eager to put some rules and barr…

Sure.

But you can apply the same logic to Windows (desktop + server) + office. Eg, Chinese government can decide tomorrow that they mandate all government PCs run Linux. And that wont distinguish between Office or OS.

As I already suggested, I am not disputing Google's reliance on Ads, but the pie chart is not convincing because of far more reasons than Ads.

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