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Talent, luck and success: simulating meritocracy and inequality

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Re: Talent, luck and success: simulating meritocracy and inequality

#161
post #155
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we're radically changing the goal posts of success if a wide swath of educated, hard working young professionals can't afford to lay down roots in the cities they grew up in because of the current absurd asset bubble's effect on home prices. Additionally, your example is kinda silly. on an income of $200k, you can afford a high end luxury apartment with approximately half of your income - as a bachelor.

I don't disagree that real estate is inflated due to cheap money, but I would challenge the idea that just because you were born in a city you have the right to expect to be able to own a home there. As for the $200K comment, I meant own a home , not rent an apartment.

No, but if you work in a city, you should be able to afford a home there. And that's increasingly not the case anymore.

Are you saying extreme length commutes should be the norm?

Re: Talent, luck and success: simulating meritocracy and inequality

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is not necessarily any reason to believe that the current mix of inequality conditions are particularly cruel or unfavorable. This is precisely the arbitrary value judgement that we do not have to accept. You (and others) don't believe that it's particularly cruel or unfavorable, and you're just wrapping that judgement in a mantle of inevitability.

> This is precisely the arbitrary value judgement that we do not have to accept. Sure, I agree. Neither of us made the case for particular cruelty / non-cruelty because it's not really the point. My intention was only to broaden the scope and perspective of the reader to view the economic system in its macro-level historical and global context, and compare in reference to the natural forces and conditions that cause…

> The point is that whether you think our system is great or terrible, you can't change it by dictum.

> "We'll just demand things change" is not a serious approach to anything.

> ...neither of us would take someone seriously who showed up and said "We have to just write 'STOP CRASHING' at the top of each file".

You're arguing (at great length) with straw men.

(I think you feel like you're being reasonable, but having words put in my mouth like that is infuriating.)

> I think it's hard to argue that things are particularly bad right now

That's the crux. It's your value judgement, and it is not legitimized by the rest of your rhetoric.

Re: Talent, luck and success: simulating meritocracy and inequality

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Careful when making that statement that you don't fall into the trap of believing that only physical labor counts as "hard work".

Front-end engineers who build widgets in React can make a $120,000 salary if they market themselves correctly. Not all software work is hard work.

I'm going to say most of it that gets paid decently is. You might easily get $120k in the Bay Area, but that's nowhere near a good salary for there.

Re: Talent, luck and success: simulating meritocracy and inequality

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you need to provide evidence that they are not. But for my evidence, I would put forth important positions, like teachers, being grossly underpaid as evidence that they are arbitrarily chosen.

It’s not arbitrary at all. The market sets pricing, it’s not magic. If we fully deregulated education I bet you’d see teacher’s salaries rise. Of course then only the wealthy would get an education but it’s disingenuous to suggest demand and its impact on price is “arbitrary”.

Saying "The market sets pricing" is admitting that it's arbitrary.

"If we fully deregulated education I bet you’d see teacher’s salaries rise."

I don't, not by a long shot.

"it’s disingenuous to suggest demand and its impact on price is “arbitrary”."

But that's not what I'm suggesting. Demand for teachers is pretty high. Pay has not risen to meet that demand, however. Demand for software engineers is also high, but only in some places has that demand correlated with a rise in salary.

It is completely arbitrary.

Re: Talent, luck and success: simulating meritocracy and inequality

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe it should be a little more clear what is considered 'valuable', before people spend years of their life's efforts and a great deal of money on education.

The data is readily available to make an informed decision. It’s the responsibility of the person getting in debt to do the research.

Except that can change within the 4-5 year lag time between entering school and graduating.

Re: Talent, luck and success: simulating meritocracy and inequality

#166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you need to provide evidence that they are not. But for my evidence, I would put forth important positions, like teachers, being grossly underpaid as evidence that they are arbitrarily chosen.

It’s not arbitrary at all. The market sets pricing, it’s not magic. If we fully deregulated education I bet you’d see teacher’s salaries rise. Of course then only the wealthy would get an education but it’s disingenuous to suggest demand and its impact on price is “arbitrary”.

By the market, do you mean the government? Because they set the budget for education, and that budget determines how much money is available to pay teachers with.

Or do you mean the voters, who typically vote down attempts to increase the money for education budgets - typically because most taxpayers don't have children active in education.

There are no market forces at work here whatsoever.

> If we fully deregulated education I bet you’d see teacher’s salaries rise.

One can look at private schools (including universities) and see this is not the case. The pay does increase slightly, but nowhere near proportionally to the value provided. A lot of that extra money provided by private citizens for their children's education is absorbed by bureaucracy (and football).

Re: Talent, luck and success: simulating meritocracy and inequality

#167

Appealing to luck is absolutely unscientific.

luck is a loose term used in place of 'probability' eg. probability that the company having an open java developer position at this years career fair seems high because of x,y and z reasons.

eg. i got lucky, they gave me an offer letter right after the interview for a developer position!

Re: Talent, luck and success: simulating meritocracy and inequality

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not arbitrary at all. The market sets pricing, it’s not magic. If we fully deregulated education I bet you’d see teacher’s salaries rise. Of course then only the wealthy would get an education but it’s disingenuous to suggest demand and its impact on price is “arbitrary”.

By the market, do you mean the government? Because they set the budget for education, and that budget determines how much money is available to pay teachers with. Or do you mean the voters, who typically vote down attempts to increase the money for education budgets - typically because most taxpayers don't have children active in education. There are no market forces at work here whatsoever. > If we fully deregulated…

> The pay does increase slightly, but nowhere near proportionally to the value provided.

Maybe it’s not as valuable as you think it is. If it was, people with means would pay more for it.

Re: Talent, luck and success: simulating meritocracy and inequality

#169
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree that real estate is inflated due to cheap money, but I would challenge the idea that just because you were born in a city you have the right to expect to be able to own a home there. As for the $200K comment, I meant own a home , not rent an apartment.

No, but if you work in a city, you should be able to afford a home there. And that's increasingly not the case anymore. Are you saying extreme length commutes should be the norm?

They already are in NYC, but thankfully the train and subway alleviate that somewhat.

The interesting thing is that people are willing to put up with commutes that long. Or, they just suck it up and move their family into a one-bedroom.

Point is, if people aren't willing to do it, it won't ever change.

Re: Talent, luck and success: simulating meritocracy and inequality

#170
post #155
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we're radically changing the goal posts of success if a wide swath of educated, hard working young professionals can't afford to lay down roots in the cities they grew up in because of the current absurd asset bubble's effect on home prices. Additionally, your example is kinda silly. on an income of $200k, you can afford a high end luxury apartment with approximately half of your income - as a bachelor.

I don't disagree that real estate is inflated due to cheap money, but I would challenge the idea that just because you were born in a city you have the right to expect to be able to own a home there. As for the $200K comment, I meant own a home , not rent an apartment.

200k annual income is enough to service the mortgage on a luxury apartment on Manhattan proper without straining the budget too much. This is about owning, not renting.

If you meant 'detached house' by home that's another thing entirely.

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