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SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

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Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#161

Post by TeMPOraL »

jlebrech wrote: post #112
tbabb wrote: post #18

Back of the envelope calculation for the price of an Earth-to-Earth ticket: Musk's stated goal is $500k/ticket to Mars. It's a shorter trip, so perhaps ~5x as many passengers in the same volume (i.e. 500 total; cf. a380 which seats 850). It takes five (?) orbital refuel trips for the martian journey, but we'd need none of those. Depending on how much less than a full tank the passenger vehicle needs (payload could be…

I hope he creates methane collection facilities on earth, it would reduce co2 as well.

There's nothing stopping anyone from building them except the one thing that's always stopping people from doing things that need to be done - economics. It's cheaper to get methane from the ground than to make it from air and water.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#163

Post by edo »

bluthru wrote: post #130
nickik wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Usually I agree about his presentation. However this one was quite a bit worse then most of them. The slides were not in sync confusing the audience. Not knowing when to clap, made it really uncomfortable. He seemed to just drop stuff randomly without a narrative thread. When he showed the BFR/ITS for the first time, he had a much clear threwline, even while rambling in between.

I don't get the sense that Elon values rehearsal time, but someone should convince him that it's really important.

I'd rather he put his time into building and designing than rehearsing speeches.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#164

Post by andygates »

tsaprailis wrote: post #106

So the key takeaway for me today compared to 1 year ago, is that Elon has put a lot of thought on how to make this plan economically viable compared to just the vision last year. Multiple potential streams of revenue: - Government/intragovernment contracts to cleanup space debris. - Government/Private satellite launches. - Earth to earth transportation which Elon announced on Instagram that the cost would be comparab…

It turns the BFR from an aspirational battlestar into the DC-3 of space: go anywhere and earn a buck doing it.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#165

Post by eutectic »

hacker_9 wrote: post #110
the8472 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no worse than dropping an airplane on a city

An airplane goes roughly 500km/h. Elons rocket was going 20000km/h - so I think it's about 40x worse actually. Not to mention a rocket goes straight down so none of that speed is lost.

And 1600x worse by kinetic energy.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#166

Post by andygates »

ciconia wrote: post #60

Just like everybody else I'm really blown away by what SpaceX does, but at the same time I think the question begs to be asked: Has humanity already given up on earth as a home? Is the future really about planets as disposable habitats?

"Earth-That-Was was used up" is fiction.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#167

Post by grkvlt »

nickik wrote: post #113
Osmium wrote: post #11

Honestly, Elon's presentations are some of the most impressive, inspiring I've ever seen. And the way he just stumbles out words and sentences that are completely revolutionary... casually dropping these absurd, incredible statements. I find it incredible. If anyone else was saying this, was showing these graphics, you'd think it was just wish fulfillment; a fantasy. And I'm sure their timeline is a bit aggressive. B…

Usually I agree about his presentation. However this one was quite a bit worse then most of them. The slides were not in sync confusing the audience. Not knowing when to clap, made it really uncomfortable. He seemed to just drop stuff randomly without a narrative thread. When he showed the BFR/ITS for the first time, he had a much clear threwline, even while rambling in between.

For a CEO, he's an insanely bad public speaker, yes. I'm always surprised by that. Then again, he's doing this without notes, or even just a preview of the next slide coming up, it seems, which is pretty difficult at the best of times in my experience.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#168

Post by andygates »

grondilu wrote: post #81
ajmurmann wrote: post #25

So what's the carbon footprint of one of these launches? Did I understand correctly that we can make the fuel by taking CO2 from the atmosphere? That would make the footprint negative, would it? That seems to good to be true.

CO2 extraction for methane production is planned on mars, where the relative ratio of CO2 in the atmosphere is much higher. On Earth, CO2 is only 0.04%, which makes it quite difficult to extract.

The kicker for Earth is that it's a lot easier and cheaper to make CH4 from biological sources (fossil fuels, fermenters, etc), so nobody does it at scale. All the solutions (IIRC) need high temperature and a catalyst, which isn't surprising as we're un-burning rocket fuel. With cheap plentiful solar energy it's more practical; as Mars has no bio-sources of scale it's essential.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#169

Post by andygates »

nickik wrote: post #119
kensai wrote: post #109

The plan is good and modestly aggressive time-wise. But he has to be careful. Even a single high-profile disaster with human loss or precious cargo will put the whole endeavor at risk.

> Even a single high-profile disaster with human loss or precious cargo will put the whole endeavor at risk. Why? This is not a government bureaucracy. People die in many places in private business. As long the company has high level of assurance that they will not get sued or regulated, I don't see how a failure could collapse the whole endeavor.

Early airlines are the closest comparison, and as design flaws and bad practice killed off crews and destroyed vehicles, they were regulated to heck and back and are better for it.

Re: SpaceX: Making Life Multiplanetary [video]

#170

Post by nicktelford »

ChelloYello wrote: post #140
ajmurmann wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if they miss 2022 the next window at 2024 is still incredible. Who would have seriously believed we'd fly something of that size to Mars by that time and have a manned mission two years later?!

The same who that believed their timeline for when they would have a human certified rocket?

I suspect the ambitious timelines are political. Musk has repeatedly stated that others would need to work on a lot of the Mars colony infrastructure. SpaceX only appear to be working on the supporting infrastructure for flights (e.g. propellant plant).

By telling the world that they'll be ready to fly in five years, they're making a statement that other organisations/companies that want to get involved with this effort need to start working on developing the other parts right now.

If the schedule ends up being more like 2028 for the first flight, they stand a much better chance at flying the right stuff there.

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