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Houston is experiencing its third ‘500-year’ flood in 3 years

washingtonpost.com

161–170 of 217 posts

Re: Houston is experiencing its third ‘500-year’ flood in 3 years

#161

While the article obliquely makes reference to this, I wonder if this is somewhat similar to the "birthday" problem in statistics. Any given person has ~1 in 365 chance of being born on a particular day. Yet, if you have 30 people in a room, there is a greater than 50 percent chance that at least one PAIR has the same birthday. Given the hundreds of cities (thousands?) in the US that may be affected by a flood, it's…

Ahem, no - your birthdays example can't apply here. When you increase the number of people in the room, each one of them benefits from every new person added, in terms of probability of having been born on the same day.

In the flood case, a flood in California and one in Miami don't really increase the chance of another flood simply because they have happened.

Re: Houston is experiencing its third ‘500-year’ flood in 3 years

#162
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

well. ok. but, i don't see placing the blame on Obamacare. i mean that was not the origin of the concept of health insurance.

Yes, but health insurance worked differently before Obamacare. Insurance companies simply did not cover chronically ill people or people with preexisting conditions, thus they were able to arrange a "bet." Obamacare removes the element of a "bet" from the system. Just like the government provides fire protection in the form of fire departments, the government needs to provide health care. What we are doing currently…

Structuring healthcare as an insurance doesn't work because pretty much everyone needs it at some point. It needs to be structured like a tax, because the rate at which you pay in has no correspondance with how much you need to get back out, but in aggregate the total sum paid matches the total care provided. That's why the successful healthcare systems in the world are typically single payer systems. However, such systems are politically untenable in the U.S. and so you get obamacare. I'm sure if it was within the overton window of acceptable political thought obamacare would have been a single payer system.

Re: Houston is experiencing its third ‘500-year’ flood in 3 years

#163

While the article obliquely makes reference to this, I wonder if this is somewhat similar to the "birthday" problem in statistics. Any given person has ~1 in 365 chance of being born on a particular day. Yet, if you have 30 people in a room, there is a greater than 50 percent chance that at least one PAIR has the same birthday. Given the hundreds of cities (thousands?) in the US that may be affected by a flood, it's…

A 500 year flood event is very likely new data that tells us our prediction it was a 1 in 500 year event was wrong. http://engineering.curiouscatblog.net/2008/07/13/500-year-floods/ It is of course possible, it was actually a once in 500 year event. I just believe it is much more likely our previous conclusion was faulty. Our prediction of 500 year floods is not very good, we rely on way less than 500 years of data.…

The other problem is that these definitions are time independent - they treat the probability of each event as a roll of die, when in fact each previous event impacts the probability of future events, by impacting surface features, moving centres of production, driving further energy expenditure and altering haloclines and other such variables.

It's a positive feedback process.

Re: Houston is experiencing its third ‘500-year’ flood in 3 years

#164

While the article obliquely makes reference to this, I wonder if this is somewhat similar to the "birthday" problem in statistics. Any given person has ~1 in 365 chance of being born on a particular day. Yet, if you have 30 people in a room, there is a greater than 50 percent chance that at least one PAIR has the same birthday. Given the hundreds of cities (thousands?) in the US that may be affected by a flood, it's…

> Yet, if you have 30 people in a room, there is a greater than 50 percent chance that at least one PAIR has the same birthday.

Not quite the same because Huston is not the only city that has experienced extreme climate these two years, many other cities also have (maybe not 500 years flood, but close).

So that would be like: one pair is born the same day, and 20 other people in the room are born a week around that day. Hardly a coincidence.

It's more likely that there was a party about 9 months and X years before that day. (I'm not sure how far we can go with this silly birthday analogy:)

Re: Houston is experiencing its third ‘500-year’ flood in 3 years

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it's not like Houston is the only city having 100 year+ floods regularly.

yes, it's almost as if the climate is changing

Or our assumptions about climate / wheather were wrong.

Re: Houston is experiencing its third ‘500-year’ flood in 3 years

#166
post #115
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, that isn't why. I worked in insurance. Not homeowners insurance, but I had a certificate and processed claims. The reason is that most human settlements occur in flood plains because we cannot live without water. We drink it. We bath in it. We irrigate crops with it. Flood plains have fertile soil. We use rivers and oceans for essential cargo transit. Insurance is about risk management. It is a form of betting. A…

That's not the problem. Private insurance does not offer flood insurance because A) it tends to all be due at the same time requiring a very large fund. B) It also promotes people living in flood prone areas. C) It's very hard to asses risks. Combined and you end up with bankrupt insurance companies. The industry also feels B makes selling flood insurance a bad idea. That said, there are Private policies you can buy…

I don't think point B is valid. Following your reasoning, the industry would also think that health insurances are a bad idea because they would promote an unhealthy livestyle.

Re: Houston is experiencing its third ‘500-year’ flood in 3 years

#167
post #79

The fundamental takeaway from this article is about half way down. Major flood events are occurint more frequently. What was once likely to hit a city every 500 years is happening to more cities on a planetary scale more frequently.

I know it's easy to blame climate change for anything and everything, but that's simply incorrect. The actual takeaway is that our data is wrong, these floods occur more often than we thought. With only 150 years of good data, it's impossible to calculate "500 year" events accurately. You would need around 5,000 years of data to do that, and we don't have it. So we ended up significantly underestimating how often the…

And we failed to incorporate the "concrete jungle" effect

Re: Houston is experiencing its third ‘500-year’ flood in 3 years

#168
post #81

Anyone notice the comments for this article on WP? There appears to be a poster called "The burning bush" who is commenting with lengthy comments about every 6 minutes. All of the the comments from that user are sceptical of man made climate change. Washington post does not appear to let you sort by anything other than "newest"... which means that this commenter's posts are always the top comment. That's concerning!

Newspaper comments sections are almost uniformly unreadable. HackerNews is, I think, the only site I subscribe to read comments.

Re: Houston is experiencing its third ‘500-year’ flood in 3 years

#169
I saw a TV programme a year or two ago which was discussing the increase in hurricanes etc in the Gulf of Mexico area.

They were saying that the storms aren't increasing due to global warming but are actually regressing back to their natural levels. The previous decades of pollution had been suppressing the storms and by cleaning the air the storm ferocity is heading back to normal.

I can't see the article at the moment but I think it was Cloud Lab on the BBC, they floated around on an airship.

Re: Houston is experiencing its third ‘500-year’ flood in 3 years

#170
post #94
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is part of the reason few private insurers offer flood insurance. They understand they there isn't enough information to properly price the risk. The historic data is spotty, we don't understand the geography well enough, you have to understand how construction and urbanization affects water absorption over long distances. If everyone who claimed to know what a 500-year storm looked like had to pay out every tim…

No, that isn't why. I worked in insurance. Not homeowners insurance, but I had a certificate and processed claims. The reason is that most human settlements occur in flood plains because we cannot live without water. We drink it. We bath in it. We irrigate crops with it. Flood plains have fertile soil. We use rivers and oceans for essential cargo transit. Insurance is about risk management. It is a form of betting. A…

Hey, I work in insurance too - as a non-life actuary for the last almost 8-9 years. Your description is not at all how insurance works, and insurance is not a form of betting or gambling but really distinctly different. What it's really about is just risk pooling; my share of the risk pool is smaller than if I would keep the risk to myself.

Insurance companies don't mind insuring risks that they know will happen at some point, e.g. most property policies will have some claims, and life term contracts (as have been stated below) of course will have a claim at some point (unless the policy is lapsed). However, they have an idea of how often and how costly these claims will be, and through risk pooling diversification, this is lower (per policy) than the cost to the individual. Thus there is an incentive to buy the policy, and an incentive to sell it - as the difference can be made as profit to the insurer.

In addition there's a timing element to insurance: insurers take in premiums "now" for claims that will be paid out "later", so they can invest the money in the meantime. Large insurance companies may have $200bn investment portfolios.

EDIT: So the point is that flood insurance can of course be sold by private companies, however they know the risk is too high and won't offer competitive premiums. If we only had private flood insurance in the US, in the long term this would lead to people having to move to places with cheaper flood insurance. In this way it actively promotes people moving away from risky places (which I think is a good thing) - but it makes it difficult for people in the short term.

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