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Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

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Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#161

Take a look at the law they're suing under, regarding licensing of real estate appraisers ( http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/ilcs/ilcs4.asp?DocName=02250... ). It makes it illegal to "develop a real estate appraisal" without a license. An appraisal is defined as simply "an opinion of value". So if you are driving down the street and say to your spouse, "Look at that house, it's gotta be worth a million bucks," you jus…

IMDb now hides the ages of many actors[1] with the idea that unless they supply their own birth date it could be facilitating age discrimination. (I'm not sure if the Wikipedia article has the latest legal status or decisions)

A prohibition against unlicensed appraisals seems about as valid as hiding what is public information if you choose to make the effort and know where to look. However, I can see both decisions being overruled if appealed to higher courts.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IMDb#Litigation

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#162
Sounds like an opportunity for arbitrage that would correct the problem. If "house flippers" start using these low prices to make a quick buck, either Zillow or homeowners are surely going to cotton on and things will settle back down to fairness.

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#163
post #16

You would think real estate would prove to be one of the few real life fields where machine learning would be able to predict the prices pretty accurately. You have: 1. List price 2. "Favorites" on the MLS. 3. Square footage 4. Bedrooms 5. Bathrooms 6. Sold price for nearby properties 7. Sold price for nearby properties relative to their list price And the list goes on... Is it that difficult to predict? Literally th…

Disclaimer: I'm a former employee of Zillow Group, and still hold stock.

These online real estate listing sites are using machine learning to try and predict sale price. The main difficulties are:

1. 'Machine Learning' is a broad term, with lots of potential approaches, some of which could give more or less accuracy.

2. If you put too much effort into getting the prediction accurate, you're prone to overfitting.

2. The data is messy. Really messy. Really really messy. The major players in the field often have a vested interest in not rectifying the situation. Even when they do, the software that runs most MLS data exchanges is, well, old. To a certain extent, it doesn't matter if one particular house has accurate data, if all the surrounding data is inaccurate.

3. On the scale of things, home sales are actually pretty rare. Any particular home might only change hands half a dozen times, while the market demand for that home might swing wildly. Any given home sale has a pretty big influence on the valuations of nearby homes, and if that sale is 'inaccurate', i.e., the seller over- or under-paid what others would consider the fair price, it can have an outsized effect on algorithmic estimates of value.

4. It's much easier to tell when a machine-learned valuation is wrong, and by how much, compared with other common applications. If Netflix is telling you a movie is 4 stars, when you think it's more of a 3.5, it doesn't feel that "off" to you. If text-to-speech mistakes a word for another similar-sounding word, it feels understandable. When Zillow says you have $30k less than you think you do, it's more quantifiable, and has more emotional impact.

Tangentially, fun fact: while there's hundreds and thousands of potential features, if you do a PCA on it, basically 80% of a home's price is just "price per square foot in the nearby area". one feature. Of course, if you end up 20% over or 20% under based on that logic, you get sued.

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Illinois is a common-law jursidiction. Any judge would laugh you out of court if you claimed an off-hand comment on valuation was an appraisal.

I agree. So where is the line between an "off-hand comment" that's not subject to the law, and an appraisal that constitutes a misdemeanor? Is it illegal if you post your comment on Facebook? Or on your blog where you talk about various homes for sale in your neighborhood? Or only when you start charging people money to hear your opinion? A citizen cannot look at the law and figure out if they're committing a crime,…

This is pretty typical of professional regulation language. Go look at your state's definition of "counseling" or "practice of law." At the limits, it covers almost any advice to anyone.

It's usually more difficult to sue, though. The power is usually given to some semi-governmental group. The Courts go out of their way to find professional regulations constitutional, and the regulators try to avoid claims that might get the entire regulation struck down. That's why Illinois never goes after non-commercial speculation about house prices.

But sometimes they overreach. There was an article in the WSJ a few days ago about some state's Barber Commission levying $50 fines on cosmetologists with striped poles out front -- for improperly implying that a licensed barber was on premises.

This woman probably isn't suing to enforce the regulation, as such. She could sue without the professional regulation, but the law sets a professional standard of care for appraisers that Zillow doesn't claim to meet, so she hopes it will help her case.

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#165
People are way too tough on Zillow. The article states that the Zestimate is within 5% of the sale price 54% of the time and within 20% of the sale price 90% of the time. That is pretty damn good considering they do not send anyone to look at the outside of homes and they do not go inside homes like an appraiser does. The problem is that people think the value of their homes is equal to what they paid for it plus some percentage gain every year. In reality, the value is just whatever a buyer is willing to pay for it. You can think your house is worth a million dollars, but it is not worth a million dollars if no one will pay that much for it.

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#166
I have had both our homes (we rent one out) independently estimated and both are worth 25-30% more than the Zestimate. I live in IL like the realtor in the article. Zillow is consistently lower than other sites. The most accurate estimates for our home are on Redfin, which is almost perfectly inline with the appraiser's estimates. Zillow has a pretty overfit model IMO.

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#167

People are way too tough on Zillow. The article states that the Zestimate is within 5% of the sale price 54% of the time and within 20% of the sale price 90% of the time. That is pretty damn good considering they do not send anyone to look at the outside of homes and they do not go inside homes like an appraiser does. The problem is that people think the value of their homes is equal to what they paid for it plus som…

The problem is that people think the value of their homes is equal to what they paid for it plus some percentage gain every year.

How is this the problem when you just stated previously that the price is 20% off from reality for 10% of people.

The real problem is a shitty estimate becoming something that people treat as a real estimate. Zillow obviously state this isn't the intention, but if they act in a way that promotes it as an estimate contrary to what they state they are doing, well, people are going to get angry.

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#168

I have had both our homes (we rent one out) independently estimated and both are worth 25-30% more than the Zestimate. I live in IL like the realtor in the article. Zillow is consistently lower than other sites. The most accurate estimates for our home are on Redfin, which is almost perfectly inline with the appraiser's estimates. Zillow has a pretty overfit model IMO.

If the estimator didn't offer to buy your house, what makes you think it's accurate?

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#169

Take a look at the law they're suing under, regarding licensing of real estate appraisers ( http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/ilcs/ilcs4.asp?DocName=02250... ). It makes it illegal to "develop a real estate appraisal" without a license. An appraisal is defined as simply "an opinion of value". So if you are driving down the street and say to your spouse, "Look at that house, it's gotta be worth a million bucks," you jus…

> So if you are driving down the street and say to your spouse, "Look at that house, it's gotta be worth a million bucks," you just committed a misdemeanor.

No, but if you try and sell your opinion to make money that's when you're very likely crossing the line. An appraisal is something you pay for or make money from; opinions are not.

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#170
post #5

I wonder how many other tech companies fit into this general category of "providing an equivalent to a regulated service without meeting the regulations". You've got the more obvious "sharing economy" type things which are in the news all over the place lately, but I bet there are a bunch of other companies like Zillow that have been flying under the radar for a while.

If a homeowner or homebuyer is paying someone to assess the value of a property, requiring expertise and training in inspection of a house such as materials, build quality, plumbing and whatnot, I could understand needing government approval. This is just someone saying what they they think something is worth. Do I need a license before I can say "I think a certain car is only worth $25k instead of $30k"?

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